So Predictable: What’s New?
The exaggerated claims by Donald Trump that he has secured a working deal with the Iranian Republic does little to ease uncertainties about where this leaves Israel and the volatile Middle East. The President’s comments about Israel’s military action in Lebanon, both before and during the G7 meeting in France, suggests this memorandum of understanding between the USA and Iran is very fragile and if it collapses, as I suspect it will, then Israel will be held responsible; a very convenient whipping boy for an increasingly beleaguered president. Not only is this dishonest, but an attempt to cover up a misjudged adventure that was poorly conceived, half- heartedly implemented, and without any coherent exit strategy.
Putting aside the nauseating boasts of American military superiority and the genius of the President, what exactly has been achieved by the combined forces of Israel and the USA? In short, very little of substance, apart from a demonstration of fire power; but nothing to convince any thinking person the end to hostilities and agreement to continue negotiations will result in a fundamental shift in the mindset of the Iranian regime. How can anyone claim, including the President of the United States, Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons? How can anyone claim to end Iran’s funding of her proxies to wage war on Western democracies and our ethical values? There has been so much hyperbole from the American administration, and we have lived with this nonsense since 2025, that to believe anything that emanates from the White House should come with a health warning. This is the man who pledged to end the war in the Ukraine in “one day”. Wow! Did it happen: no, and all the talk about the loss of life is mere theatre. This is the man who promised to restore jobs to Americans living in the Rust Belt. The reality is continuing high unemployment, rising costs of living, an increasingly fractured society, and spiraling debt burden.
The USA may well have deserved the mantle of defender of freedom in the past, and certainly its contributions in aiding Europe in the fight against Nazism and Soviet Communism should be applauded; but, sadly, under the present American leadership, this previous commitment to support allies is now cast into doubt. It is not just Israel that is in the firing line, but also Europe. The latter, at long last, has woken up to her responsibility for self-defense. It is true things may well change when Trump’s term ends, but the relationship, special or otherwise, is not what it was, and, perhaps, will never be the same again.
Israel, more than Europe, has to court other friends. It is a difficult time diplomatically, but she cannot rely on the USA for continued military and moral support; the changes we have witnessed in America since 7 October 2023 should send a stark warning to Israeli leaders. A state that is dependent on a more powerful one is in danger of losing control over its own affairs: history teaches that brutal truth. Israel has made fantastic advances in countless fields of human endeavor, particularly in technology, security, medicine, IT and now AI. She has to forge ahead to maintain her advantage and gradually wean herself from dependence. It may be this will come about in the future with greater cooperation between Israel and Arab states that, at long last, see benefit in working with rather than opposing the Jewish State.
The shattering events of 7 October 2023, the war in Gaza to destroy Hamas, the ongoing war in Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah and the cooling of relations with Trump, mainly because he wants to save face, to claim some sort of hollow victory over Iran, should sound alarm bells in Jerusalem. What is at issue here is whether America, under the present administration, is a staunch friend or a fair-weather one: מִי הוּא חֲבֵרִי