Something big is coming…

The recent air exercises over the Mediterranean Sea between a US B-52 bomber and two Israeli F-15 and F-35 fighters, within the current geopolitical context of the Middle East, point towards a potential military action against Iran’s nuclear programme by Israel and the United States.

The B-52 has a payload capacity of up to 31,500 kg (70,000 lbs) of conventional and nuclear armament, a range of 14,000 km without the need for refuelling, can fly at an altitude of 15,000 metres, and has been a key pillar in the U.S. nuclear deterrence since its service entry in 1955.

This bomber can easily carry two GBU-57 bunker-busting bombs, each weighing 30,000 pounds. The GBU-57 is an advanced, highly accurate penetration bomb, guided by GPS and laser, known for its ability to destroy heavily protected military installations, such as the underground sites of Iran’s nuclear programme.

Among its arsenal are also missiles such as the AGM-86B ALCM (Air-Launched Cruise Missile), an air-launched cruise missile that can be fired at long distances; the AGM-129A ACM (Advanced Cruise Missile), more precise than the former and capable of evading radar; and the B61 and B63 nuclear bombs, weighing 1,250, 2,150, 320, and 1,100 kg, respectively.

Therefore, the B-52 has the capacity to simultaneously carry a GBU-57 bunker-buster, several missiles, and nuclear bombs.

The B-52 is considered the ideal aircraft for destroying, either conventionally or unconventionally, Iran’s underground nuclear sites in Natanz and Fordow, which are enriching large amounts of uranium to 60% or more, approaching the 90% level needed to produce nuclear bombs.

The greatest existential threat to Israel does not lie within the walls of Gaza, but beneath the reinforced concrete of the Natanz and Fordow nuclear facilities.

It is unlikely that a B-52 would be used in an attack on Gaza, one of the most densely populated places in the world, where 24 Israeli hostages are still being held captive by the terrorist group Hamas.

An attack with bunker-busting bombs in the Gaza Strip would pose a grave danger to the lives of these hostages. Therefore, a potential resumption of hostilities in Gaza would have the ultimate goal of destroying Hamas and rescuing as many hostages as possible, while trying to minimise civilian casualties.

If negotiations with Hamas fail, despite the pressures from the State of Israel to release the hostages and fully surrender their weapons, the war in Gaza could soon resume.

It is estimated that up to 80% of the more than 500 km tunnel network beneath Gaza may remain intact. In theory, faced with Egypt’s refusal to open its border for the free passage of Gazans, Hamas would be compelled to utilise these tunnels to protect both the civilian population and hostages, sheltering them from potential air strikes by the Israeli Air Force (IAF).

The IDF should urge the Gazans to rebel and take the tunnels by force, if necessary, to protect themselves from urban combat between the IDF and Hamas in a complex guerrilla warfare scenario, should Hamas refuse to share them.

On the other hand, the State of Israel knows that resuming the war in Gaza could trigger a large-scale regional war against other terrorist groups such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, and neighbouring nations such as Egypt, Syria, and Jordan, but it seems to have little choice.

Such a war could distract and wear down Israel in the face of the threat of annihilation from Iran, should it soon acquire nuclear weapons.

Former President Donald Trump’s letter to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was the last diplomatic attempt by the United States to persuade the Iranian regime to completely abandon the idea of acquiring nuclear bombs, dismantling its entire uranium-235 enrichment capacity, which is currently being enriched to dangerously high levels, and diluting all of its enriched uranium from 60% to 5%, the level necessary for strictly civilian purposes.

If U.S. diplomatic pressure fails and Israel’s set deadline is reached, Iran’s nuclear programme could be the first to face a devastating attack from Israel, in cooperation with the United States.

With the Purim festival on 14th March, which commemorates the day when the wicked Haman, advisor to King Ahasuerus (Xerxes I) of the ancient Persian Empire, was thwarted in his plot to exterminate the Jews, something momentous and incalculable seems to be unfolding on the horizon of the Middle East. A similar plan, but this time by the Iranian government, is about to be thwarted for a second time. This event could have a profound impact on the situation in Israel, Iran, Gaza, and the rest of the region in the near future.