Status Quo Cannot Endure in US-Tunisia Relations
The strategic misalignment between Tunisia and the United States risks a major shift in US-Tunisia relations in the not too distant future.
The Trump Administration is committed to promoting fair, free, reciprocal trade that puts American workers first. It is committed to protecting American companies and innovators from digital service taxes and other anti-competitive practices by foreign governments. It is committed to increasing U.S. military strength through shifts in the burden for African regional security to U.S. allies and partners. And, it is committed to expanding the Abrahamic Accords across the Middle East and North Africa.
However, it is proving difficult for the Trump Administration to follow through on those commitments in the context of bilateral relations with Tunisia.
First, Tunisia is one of the “worst offenders” among U.S. trading partners. Seeking to rebalance, the Trump Administration initially declared that it would set the adjusted reciprocal tariff at 28%. That may or may not change in the coming weeks. The Trump Administration is in the process of finalizing its formal letters to trading partners with their final adjusted reciprocal tariffs.
Second, Tunisia enacted legislation on a digital service tax. That is a potential point of contention. The Trump Administration recently coerced Canada to rescind its own digital service tax.
Third, Tunisia is only spending 2.5% of its gross domestic product on military expenditure. This is despite the fact that there is a civil conflict next door in Libya. The Trump Administration almost certainly expects more from a Major Non-NATO Ally that enjoys special privileges, including eligibility for state-of-the-art training underwritten by U.S. taxpayers.
Fourth, Tunisia not only lacks diplomatic relations with Israel. There has been a significant deterioration in the unofficial relationship since the Second Intifada, and Tunisian President Kais Saied has been an outspoken critic of the Abraham Accords.
The Trump Administration is therefore faced with a serious dilemma.
On the one hand, the Trump Administration wants to aggressively follow through on its commitments to U.S. voters. That includes expanding the Abraham Accords system across the Middle East and North Africa.
On the other hand, the U.S. Government doesn’t just have a “special bond” with Tunisia that can be traced back to the Treaty of Peace and Friendship. Tunisia is currently designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally of the United States.
A major breakdown in the strategic partnership would therefore carry serious downside risks that extend far beyond US-Tunisia relations.
Among other things, it would decrease the reliability of contingency access for U.S. military and intelligence operators to “the epicenter of terrorism on the globe” (i.e., The Sahel).
That would make it more difficult for the U.S. Government to employ the prudent use of force against foreign terrorist organizations that pose a clear and present threat to the United States and its allies.
Tunisia and the United States therefore find themselves at a strategic crossroads.
Tunisia must decide whether to embark on reforms that would make it easier for the Trump Administration to achieve its commitments to the American people.
If not, then the Trump Administration must decide whether to employ even more coercive methods to try to force a hybrid regime that is already drifting out of the American orbit to pursue those reforms against its will.
Whatever is decided, it seems that the status quo cannot endure for much longer.
Change is coming to US-Tunisia relations.
