Stolen elections and Islamist influence: Why Venezuela matters?

The stolen presidential elections in Venezuela that took place on July 28 have implications for the Americas, the Middle East and the world. This country in the north of South America has been in the epicentre of a global conflict between the anti-Western axis and the pro-democracy forces in the last 25 years, since the deceased Hugo Chávez was elected for the first time in 1998. Many actors are intervening either indirectly or directly in this country, some defending their vital interests such as the communist regime in Cuba, and others, like Iran, China and Russia, challenging the United States of America in the western hemisphere.

Venezuela has the largest reserve of crude oil in the world, mostly located in the south of the country in the area known as the “Orinoco Belt.” But the Venezuelan national corporation PDVSA is in shambles after years of mismanagement and corruption. Its production, that according to all estimates should be at 3 million barrels per day, today is at a meagre 600 thousand, depending mostly of joint ventures with Spanish, Russian, Iranian and even American partners, such as Chevron, under licenses of the US Treasury Department (the Biden government has threatened to withdraw the licenses because of the irregular elections). Venezuela was for years a reliable oil provider to the US and Europe, but the evolution of Venezuelan politics towards growing authoritarianism and international criminal activities (drug trafficking, money laundering, gold smuggling), changed radically the situation. Now Venezuela sells most of its oil to China (to pay multi-billion debts), India, and sends 50 thousand barrels to Cuba every day in exchange for medical services and military and intelligence cooperation.

One of the factors in the Venezuelan landscape is the increasing influence and participation of Islamists forces in the country’s politics and economy. Since the arrival of Hugo Chávez, the regime developed strong ties with Syria and Iran, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. The fallen oil Venezuelan Tsar, Tareck El Aissami, a radical leftist politician, was one of the most prominent links with the Islamists forces. The son of Lebanese-Syrian immigrants, El Aissami is now in prison after being accused by the Nicolás Maduro regime of leading a criminal network involved in stealing more than 21 billion dollars from PDVSA through illegal oil sales in the international market, crypto-currency operations and capital-laundering schemes. Some analysts believe that El Aissami was a token in a larger negotiation with the Biden government, that freed the front man of the Maduro clan, Alex Saab, a Colombian of Lebanese origin, business operator that was in prison in the US charged with money laundering derived from several dubious financial transactions with the Venezuelan government.

Financial Underworld

The presence of new Lebanese and Syrian migrants in Venezuela has been accompanied by huge investments in retail stores and real estate. In a depressed economy, that suffered years of hyperinflation, very low wages and diminishing purchase power, many observers are surprised to see large stocks of goods in supermarkets, pharmacies and department stores. The only explanation for this very special display of merchandise is money-laundering operations. The same goes with the real estate market, in the capital of Caracas and in the regions, were the “Arabs” (as they are called by the locals) are buying (paying cash) commercial and residential properties.

The main centre of these financial schemes is Margarita Island, a duty-free Caribbean beach destination, were many Lebanese and Syrian business families have been connected with Hezbollah. Even though these links have existed for years, more recently the intensification of financial operations have called the attention of the international intelligence community.

Two other actors are also playing an important role in this story: Iran and Turkey. Iran has been an allied of the “revolutionary” regime of Chávez and Maduro. The Islamic Republic has been cooperating with the Venezuelan government in different areas: oil exploitation and refining, selling gasoline (to an oil-producing country!), military cooperation, exporting vehicles and other goods. Turkey has become a key commercial partner of the government (Turkish products can be found everywhere in Venezuela), but is also the hub where the gold coming from the “Mining Orinoco Arc” is being refined and stored. Flights from Caracas to Istanbul are one of the few options to travel to Europe in a Venezuelan airline market with many restrictions.

The Russian and Chinese Friends

Hugo Chávez, a former Army commander, changed the traditional relation that Venezuela had with the US military, and turned to Russia for weapons and training. In the last 20 years, Venezuela has acquired all kinds of Russian equipment: Sukhoi fighters, tanks, missiles, drones, telecommunication devices, and thousands of Kalashnikov automatic rifles. The current (and contested) President Maduro has continued with these special relations, adding to the equation the physical presence of Russian military personnel and mercenaries from the Wagner group in Venezuelan soil.

The Chinese had also provided military equipment to Venezuela, mainly anti-riot vehicles, weapons, ammunition and police protection gear. But the main concern of the Popular People’s Republic is the billionaire unpaid debt that the Venezuelan regime has with them for infrastructure projects (finished and unfinished), and large number of Chinese goods, from appliances to buses and other goods.

Whatever happens in Venezuela, where a large majority of the people (almost 70%) voted for a change last July 28 according to the only results published so far (the electoral authority has not published a detailed report of the vote when we are writing these notes), will influence the relation of forces in the Latin American region and beyond. A perceived weakened US has opened the door to other players that are getting more robust in the international scene.