The Abraham Accords: A Pathway to Latin America
The potential created by the Abraham Accords between Israel and the Gulf countries goes beyond merely being the first steps toward calming the long-standing conflicts of the Middle East.
We are contemporary witnesses to a new agreement between Israel and the Arab countries after decades. However, some argue that this agreement is different from the previously known treaties with Jordan and Egypt, and that the relationship with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will be much warmer than the cold peace achieved with both.
Within the agreement, there are many articles to be developed related to commercial development between the two parties. But there is a possibility that the agreement could also offer some facilities for countries interested in learning more about the Middle East and how to do business there.
The current global political landscape does not present a positive image, and in the globalized world we live in, conflicts end up influencing the decisions of other countries, regardless of their status on the world stage.
The Russia-Ukraine war has shifted the areas of interest between Latin America and the rest of the world, and if we add to that the progress of Iran’s nuclear program, the global outlook doesn’t look optimistic, with rising risks and instabilities.
However, it might be time to focus on the contributions and potential of the Abraham Accords, especially regarding energy security and food security. It’s not only about looking at the acceptance and collaboration of the Accords with the great powers, but analyzing how this agreement could help Latin American countries gain the best advantages from cooperation in the Middle East.
Latin America now faces new opportunities in light of this new reality, and even Europe has started taking note of them. With the war in Ukraine, some European diplomats and think tanks have begun to recognize the potential of the Abraham Accords for their countries’ energy and security needs.
With the Spanish-speaking countries, a new opportunity arises to promote trilateral partnerships with and alongside the signatories of the Abraham Accords. The normalization agreements signed between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Bahrain in August 2020 (the Abraham Accords), and later between Israel and Morocco in December 2020, have formalized economic and intelligence ties that previously existed discreetly.
The Russia-Ukraine War and Latin America
To better understand the participation possibilities of Spanish-speaking countries in the Abraham Accords, we will conduct a mapping of South American countries, explaining their positions on the Russia-Ukraine war and how these positions may affect diplomatic relations.
By understanding the different political stances of Latin American governments, we can discern which countries Israel could begin cooperating with and which ones would need to adjust their foreign policies according to their needs.
There is also a realignment in the Mediterranean due to shared energy interests and the revisionist foreign policy of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In recent years, relations between Turkey and Israel have deteriorated. In contrast, Israel and Greece have developed a military and energy partnership with Cyprus, while Turkey has become an adversary, despite Erdoğan’s recent attempt to mend relations with Israel. Erdoğan’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood and his claims for exclusive economic rights in the Mediterranean, which could undermine gas exports to Europe, have led to stronger relations between Israel, the European Union, and the United Arab Emirates.
Geopolitical Realignment in Latin America
Latin America’s position regarding the current international situation has largely aligned with the United States in opposing Russia in the Ukraine war, with the exception of countries loyal to Putin like Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and Bolivia.
Additionally, although the US is still a relevant partner for some countries in Latin America, the current situation presents a much different outlook than in previous years. The US may no longer be seen as a reliable power for its allies in terms of perspectives and support. The strategic shift of the US to avoid full engagement in international matters sends a mixed message to its allies regarding unconditional support. The ambiguous assistance to Ukraine and weak policies towards Iran, also reflected in its voting patterns at the United Nations, force Latin Americans to rethink their alliances.
The Latin American Economic Situation
The economies of Latin America and the Caribbean had to face a complex situation in 2022 due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to new estimates from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in the current context, where the Ukraine conflict has worsened inflation problems, increased volatility, and financial costs, the region is forecast to experience an average growth of 1.8%. The economies of South America are expected to grow by 1.5%, those of Central America and Mexico by 2.3%, and the Caribbean economies would grow by 4.7% (excluding Guyana).
The long-term results of the crisis will be significant, especially as they translate into a decrease in external demand for Latin America and the Caribbean. This will be critical in the energy sector, as the war caused an increase in the prices of raw materials, particularly hydrocarbons.
The Potential of the Abraham Accords
This situation could affect the traditional political stance of some Latin American countries that have been aligned with those countries whose main ideological banner is not reaching an agreement with Israel due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Today, the core of the region’s conflict is reflected in the tension between the Shia powers led by Iran and the Sunni powers led by Saudi Arabia. The expansion of the Shia military threat has led to cohesion among the Sunni countries, which have sought an alliance with Israel, as they face the same Iranian expansionist threat. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain led the signing of the Abraham Accords, also including Morocco, with the next step, according to most analysts and unofficial sources, likely to come from Saudi Arabia.
Therefore, the Abraham Accords reflect a significant geopolitical shift and a paradigm change in the Arab world, where the Palestinian cause no longer acts as the primary ideological obstacle to peace and where Israel is no longer the main enemy.
European Crisis and Opportunities
Today, in light of the current situation caused by the crisis in Europe and its impact on the demand from Latin American countries, the reality shows us that the Abraham Accords can enhance relations between Israel and Latin America. The new geopolitical realignment proposes areas for trilateral cooperation between Spanish-speaking countries, Israel, and the Arab signatories of the Accords in sectors such as security, economic cooperation, and joint projects to improve energy and food security.
There is also potential for academic cooperation, direct investment, and tourism with the technological advantages of Israel and the financial resources of the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
Middle East News begins a series of articles that will analyze the opportunities for our Latin American countries to participate in the opportunities opened by the Abraham Accords. Our readers will thus receive a catalog of Spanish-language notes related to commercial development in the Middle East with insider data and relevant events.