The ‘American Conception’: How Bibi Lost on Iran

On Wednesday, the New York Times revealed that the Trump Administration blocked an Israeli plan to attack and destroy Iranian nuclear sites. Although Iran reportedly has all of the pieces necessary to build a nuclear bomb, Israel’s closest ally refused to okay an attack. 

Faced with this clear threat, Prime Minister Netanyahu has done nothing significant to reaffirm that Israel will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Even after his meeting with President Trump, where he was made to sit and smile as the President announced his plans to negotiate with the Islamic Republic, Netanyahu refused to publicly break rank with American policy. For a man whose foreign policy career was defined by his fight against Iranian nuclearization, Bibi’s reaction has been surprisingly weak. 

But we shouldn’t be surprised. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s failure to muster a response to the looming threat of Iran is the natural result of his longstanding policy towards the US: intentionally turning Israel into a Republican, rather than bipartisan, issue. 

Bibi’s strategy relied on the assumption that the Republicans would always back Israel, and while his approach may have worked in the past, it met its match in President Trump. Now, Israel is stuck choosing between its relationship with the US and its protection against Iran. By tying Israel’s fate to one party, Netanyahu sacrificed the country’s ability to maneuver in American politics, leaving it toothless against the Iranian threat. 

Given the closeness of the US-Israel relationship, it is crucial that any Israeli Prime Minister be able to navigate the United States with comfort and grace. This is one of Netanyahu’s greatest strengths as a leader: he gets the US in a way that few Israeli politicians do. He went to high school in the United States, and studied at MIT and Harvard. His English is famously impeccable, especially when compared to his domestic opponents. And to his great pride, Bibi has spoken before the US Congress more than any foreign leader in history. For all of his faults, Netanyahu does genuinely have a skill when it comes to America. 

For at least the past decade, Bibi’s strategy has been consistent: work with the Republicans and their evangelical base to ensure that the United States does not get in the way of any Israeli actions. In practice, this meant cultivating positive relationships with Republican political leaders while treating Democrats—at best—with disdain. These Republicans, in turn, would give blanket support to Netanyahu’s governments. By tying Israel to the Republicans, Bibi was able to guarantee Israel a no-strings-attached ally in American politics. Regardless of what Israel did, at least one party would back it. And if the Democrats tried to push back on any Israeli action, the Republicans would condemn them as anti-Israel and double down. 

The Bibi-Republican relationship reached its peak during the Obama Administration. When the US President publicly disagreed with Israel on negotiating with Iran, Netanyahu managed to secure a visit to the States and a speech before Congress without any Presidential approval. His strategy worked so well that he successfully got around the President himself and appealed directly to Congress. 

Bibi’s strategy had its drawbacks: it alienated many Jewish Americans who overwhelmingly support Democrats, and it strained the previously pro-Israel Democratic Party’s relationship with the country. But for a time, it worked. 

Even during the Biden years, when more Democrats than ever openly opposed Israel’s actions, the strategy continued to succeed. When Israel needed American military assistance, the overwhelming majority of Congressional Republicans worked with centrist Democrats to pass it time and again. When policies critical of Israel were pushed, they were swiftly condemned by Republicans and failed to pass. In spite of growing dislike of Israel and a deeply contentious relationship with the President, Bibi was able to use his alliance with Republicans to deliver. 

However, what Bibi could not account for was a Republican Administration that was not committed to Israel. His whole long-term strategy was based on the conception that the Republicans were Israel stalwarts; that was what allowed him to burn bridges with the Democrats. 

But for all of the good Trump has done Israel (most obviously, the Abraham Accords), he is not committed to Israel the way Republicans used to be. Following October 7th, then-candidate Trump said that Hezbollah was “very smart” and attacked Netanyahu. Soon after returning to office, Trump appointed a hostage negotiator who tried to cut side deals with Hamas and called them “a bunch of nice guys“. And now, despite the objections of establishment Republicans like Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, Trump is (for now) unwilling to let Israel take action against a nuclear Iran.  

To this, Bibi has no recourse. If Trump makes a deal with Iran and Israel attacks anyway, he could destroy the America-Israel relationship. Netanyahu can’t go back to the Democrats for support, not after insulting Obama in 2015 and embarrassing Biden at every opportunity last year. And there’s no Republican with the clout to challenge Trump.

Of course, it is possible that Trump will act in Israel’s interests. Maybe he will come around to taking on Iran, maybe he’ll find a deal that leads to peaceful de-nuclearization, or maybe his negotiations will fall apart. What Trump will or won’t do is not the problem. The problem is that Israel has to rely on him, because the Prime Minister of Israel surrendered his power to dictate Israeli foreign policy. Because of his ‘American Conception’, the self-styled Mr. Security has left Israel in a position where it cannot defend itself by itself. 

At Israel’s hour of need, while the country has a last opportunity to prevent the threat of a nuclear Iran, Netanyahu has left the country’s fate to the whims of Donald Trump. With no strong allies left in Washington, he can only hope that Trump makes the right choice. Until then, as in the Oval Office, all Bibi can do is sit and smile.