The American Jewish Voter: 2024 Post-Election Reflections
In the aftermath of the past Tuesday’s presidential election, we can identify a number of generic and more definitive trends and outcomes that have implications for America’s Jews. In this essay we will be examining some distinctive findings.
One of the overriding outcomes of this election is the increasing diversity of America. This is reflected in more specific terms by the emergence of Asian American voters, the growing presence and impact of Muslim American voters, the presence of Gen Z participants, and the increasing importance of Latinos.
Considering the increased support that Donald Trump generated among Jewish voters in 2024, this phenomenon represents a different political moment than 2016. Concerns for Israel’s security and the rise of increased anti-Semitism would drive more voters to the Republican Party than in prior elections. At this point in connection with the “Jewish vote,” we have several contradictory polls but the majority suggest an increased level of support for the former president.
Geography mattered in this campaign as we can identify distinctive pro-Trump Jewish voting patterns in parts of the Northeast and in Florida, creating a divided regional map for Jewish voting that we may have not previously encountered. Beyond a significant base of support among Orthodox voters, the former president would garner backing from other Jewish constituencies.
The 2024 results would suggest a even deeper divide among Jews. Where once Israel was a unifying force for American Jewry, today we find a significantly more bifurcated community.
Disaffected young Jewish voters who opposed Vice President Harris in connection with Biden Administration’s support for Israel’s Gaza campaign appear today to be deflated and alienated. Among the challenges here will require a concerted effort to re-engage this generation in moving forward. Is it possible that the Jewish community may be confronting a “lost generation” in connection with their critique of Israel, as many young liberal Jews reject Zionism and the Jewish State?
With Donald Trump’s election, we will see the emergence of Republican Jewish leaders asserting their new influence with the incoming administration. Correspondingly, we can anticipate Jewish liberal groups organizing a counter-Jewish response to the 47th President and the 119th Congress.
We have seen and will likely identify more expressions of criticism directed against Jewish institutions and its leaders in connection with the events unfolding in this country since last October and now in response to this election. Since the end of the Second World War, this marks one of the few times where we can identify a bottom-up critique of Jewish institutional actions and leadership. The critique centers on what audiences are perceiving as the failure of the American Jewish establishment to have been better prepared to deal with the fall out over Israel and a corresponding concern over a misreading of the triggers that have contributed to the scale and scope of anti-Semitism that has emerged in recent years.
There will be a major effort to reframe American Jewish liberalism in the aftermath of this election. This initiative will be designed and driven by a desire to reconnect with other liberal players and to reflect the changing political playing field. Part of this organizing strategy will be directed toward “preserving” and ensuring a Jewish voice inside the Democratic Party and maintaining that party’s engagement and connection with Israel as it undergoes a process of repositioning its priorities and recasting its image in preparation for mid-term elections in 2026 and beyond. We likely to see a battle among Democrats in connection with formulating the case for Israel?
In this fractious political environment, we will observe that both the far left and farright will attempt to frame their vision for America. As part of this effort, these groups will employ their anti-Jewish rhetoric in seeking to further question the role and influence of American Jewry. Over the past several years, this attack has been constructed around the question “Are Jews White?” For the extreme right, this argument was reflected in Charlottesville in 2017, where their mantra of “Jews will not replace us” referenced their belief that Jews are conspiring to “become white” by seeking to replace white Anglo-Saxon leaders and in turn assume power, thereby taking on the imagine of whiteness.
For the progressive left, this same notion has been reflected in their belief that Jews have already “become white” as they have shed their minority and victimhood status by acquiring power. Believing that those who hold power are by definition inherently racist and corrupt, Jews are labeled both here and in Israel with the additional crimes of being colonialists and Zionists.
In some measure just as 2004 marked the last election of a ‘traditional’ post-Second World War Republican president (George Bush), the Biden presidency may mark the last occasion we will have experienced a ‘traditional’ Democratic Party candidate. The Trump Presidency must be understood as a distinctively different political and cultural moment. As American politics is being reshaped by media, technology, and a changing voter base, our candidates will likely reflect a fundamentally different type of leader.
In this the most expensive American political campaign in history, generating a large voting base, although slightly below the 2020 figures, we experienced a uniquely American phenomenon.