The ceasefire is very fragile

If Hezbollah attacks, and Israel then decides to attack Beirut, Iran would probably want to retaliate, and also keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Even if Hezbollah doesn’t attack, Israel insists on staying in southern Lebanon. Iran might argue that this breaks the truce, and would be reason to keep the strait closed.

Trump wants to end the war, and open the strait. But there is the possibility that Israel might do something in Lebanon which would derail Trump’s plan.

It’s a complex situation, with numerous moving parts that are interacting.

Trump and Iran want very much to end the war. Trump wants to improve his party’s chances in the midterm elections, and Iran wants sanctions lifted and funds unfrozen.

The world wants the war to end, so that the strait can reopen.

Israel, however, wants the war to go on, in order to completely defeat Iran’s regime.

The truce depends on Israel’s compliance. And Israel is not in the mood to comply.

Iran, the US, and the world are looking anxiously at Israel. But Israel, the tiny country that became a superpower, is not afraid of the world anymore.

October 7 changed things. Israel is now hyper-focused on acting preemptively to neutralize threats.

Trump wants to end the war. But will Israel let him?