International Business Development Consultant
The Challenge of Israel’s Next Elections
In the Book of Psalms (121:1-2) it is written: “I lift up my eyes to the mountains, from where does my help come? My help comes from the Lord, the Maker of heaven and earth.”
Traditionally here in Israel when the government in power lifted up its eyes to the mountain, spiritual help came from God and faith, but operational help came from the US, as did the associated demands. Those demands, of course, follow the adage, “He Who Has the Gold Makes the Rules,” which first appeared in an American comic strip, “The Wizard of Id #4” by Brant Parker and John Hart in October, 1971.
We see this played out even today. During America’s current war with Iran, the US government asked to have multiple US Air Force refueling tanker aircraft parked at Ben Gurion Airport. It was no problem. First of all, “big brother” made the request and, secondly, there was almost no inbound tourism, and no commercial flights other than those primarily flown by ELAL. Specifically, we had the space to do this.
But now the tourist influx has begun and Israel needs the space to park incoming aircraft before they begin their return flights to their countries of origin. Israel has asked the US to move the refuelers and America initially agreed but now that it looks like the war may ramp up again, they are demanding that we continue to host those aircraft. Projections show that the number of cancelled flights that will be affected beginning July 23rd could result in 50,000 trips being cancelled. To be sure, that would cause chaos on a number of levels.
Nevertheless, “He Who Has the Gold Makes the Rules!”
However, it may not continue to be the US who makes the rules in the future. While Rahm Emanuel in his speech at Tel Aviv University last week warned of massive changes to Israel’s relationship with the US if he gets elected, the low odds of his winning the Democratic party’s nomination for US president are only surpassed by the even lower odds of his being elected so…..why worry some say.
In addition, recently it appears that Israel’s position in this region and its relationship to the rest of the world may be affected more by what others think rather than who sits in the White House.
For example, this week an opinion piece appeared in the French newspaper LeMonde, in which Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi opined that the war on Iran “is a disaster.” He argued that the region’s most serious security threats do not come from Tehran but from Tel Aviv, and that decisions made outside the Gulf, “above all in Tel Aviv,” have become a major source of instability. What is needed, according to Al Busaidi, is a new regional security framework made up of all Gulf states, including Iran and Iraq. Of course, Israel was left out of that club, as expected.
In another take on the subject, Israel’s left-leaning Ha’aretz reports that Saudi Arabia has sent a note to Washington conditioning the resumption of normalization talks with Israel on the removal of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power following the next Israeli elections here, now scheduled for October 27th.
Reports published by Israeli media outlets like the right-wing Israel Hayom indicate that representatives of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have conveyed specific political demands to senior American officials before they are willing to reopen discussions regarding the Abraham Accords.Saudi officials are also reported to be demanding the complete cancellation and reversal of recent expansionist policies in Judea and Samaria advanced by far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
It would seem that Saudi leadership views these two issues as directly linked, reasoning that as long as Netanyahu remains in power, he will continue to back hardline coalition partners, effectively blocking any progress toward a political resolution or a pathway to a Palestinian state. Honest people would have to award the Saudi high marks for clear thinking on this issue for sure.
West of us, European Union member states are currently considering stricter restrictions on Israeli imports originating from settlements in, as they term it, the West Bank. The EU foreign policy chief announced that a full trading ban on these specific settlement goods garnered the most backing among foreign ministers, though formal legislation is yet to be finalized.
Under current trade rules, Israeli goods generally benefit from preferential access to European markets through the EU-Israel Association Agreement. However, the European Commission is actively evaluating three main policy options for goods produced in what they consider are illegal settlements: (1) a partial or total import ban on goods from these territories; (2) requiring special permission for settlement goods to enter the bloc; and (3) imposing high import tariffs to make these goods economically unviable.
In addition to these proposed options, several individual European nations have previously taken independent measures regarding the proper labeling of settlement goods to ensure they are not mislabeled as “Products of Israel”.
From where does my help come? In the future, Israel may be less affected by what the US thinks but more under the influence of Europe, its largest trading partner, as well as regional leaders who will lay down conditions for their support of, and cooperation with, Israel. In the past, we could easily thumb our collective noses at our neighbors given the guaranteed support of the US. The future, however, is much less clear so the need for a more moderate government here may become critical to our longer-term survival as a sovereign nation.
Our national elections scheduled now for October 27th now become ever more important as we have an opportunity to choose leaders who understand that the future world in which we function will be significantly different than the world of the first 78 years of Israel’s existence.
We should take to heart the words of author James Hunt, who said: “A country can survive its poor leaders, but it cannot survive a majority of its population that continues to elect those leaders.”
Indeed, something to remember as we move forward in this so far very successful experiment called Israel.