The Blogs: The CIA and Ratcliffe’s Challenges in Facing Iran

In the wake of President Trump’s anticipated return to the White House, and with the reported appointment of John Ratcliffe as CIA Director, the intelligence community stands at the cusp of recalibrating its priorities in the Middle East. Ratcliffe, a seasoned intelligence leader who served as Director of National Intelligence in Trump’s first term, has been entrusted with revamping the CIA’s approach to critical threats. Among these, the regime in Tehran remains the most pressing and multifaceted challenge.

As an analyst with a deep focus on Iran’s regime, I’ve repeatedly written that the Shiite mullahs ruling the Islamic Republic understand only the language of strength. Diplomacy, while a preferred tool of Western states, is a futile endeavor with this regime, which possesses a unique talent for deceit and malice. This perspective is not born of pessimism but of years of evidence demonstrating Tehran’s intransigence and duplicity.

Iran’s Regional and Global Threats

The current world is plagued by Islamic terrorism, much of which originates from Tehran’s regime. Iran has meticulously crafted a network of proxies and affiliates, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, to serve as its extensions. These terrorist groups destabilize the region while giving Iran plausible deniability. This is a classic case of state-sponsored terrorism, conducted under the guise of “resistance” against perceived enemies, primarily Israel and the United States.

Moreover, Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain a grave threat to global stability. If the mullahs succeed in developing a nuclear bomb, their leverage over the region and beyond will increase exponentially, emboldening their terrorist proxies and threatening the civilized world. The international community’s failure to curb these ambitions decisively has only emboldened Tehran’s belligerence.

The Trump-Ratcliffe Doctrine: A New Era of Strength

The return of Trump, alongside his ally Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel, offers a unique opportunity to dismantle the Islamic caliphate regime in Tehran. This era of strong leadership, coupled with regional cooperation among Persian Gulf countries, presents the best chance to neutralize the regime’s threats.

Under Ratcliffe’s leadership, the CIA must adopt a doctrine of proactive intelligence and operational rigor. This approach should prioritize:

Enhanced Human Intelligence (HUMINT): Establishing robust networks within Iran to gather actionable intelligence on nuclear facilities, terrorist operations, and internal dissent.
Cyber Countermeasures: Iran’s cyber capabilities have advanced significantly, posing threats to US infrastructure and intelligence operations. The CIA must strengthen its defensive and offensive cyber capabilities to counter Tehran’s digital aggression.
Proxy Neutralization: A coordinated effort with regional allies to dismantle Iran’s proxy networks is essential. This includes providing intelligence support to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE to target Hezbollah’s supply lines and disrupt the Houthis’ operations in Yemen.
Economic and Political Pressure: Intelligence plays a critical role in supporting sanctions and isolating Iran diplomatically. Identifying illicit financial networks and arms smuggling routes can cripple Tehran’s ability to sustain its regional adventurism.

The Failure of Diplomacy and the Language of Strength

History has shown that diplomatic overtures to Tehran often result in wasted time and diminished leverage. The 2015 nuclear deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was a prime example of how Iran exploited diplomacy to buy time for its nuclear program while continuing its destabilizing activities unabated.

Tehran’s leadership interprets diplomacy as a sign of weakness. Their strategy is simple yet effective: use negotiations to divide international coalitions, extract economic concessions, and maintain their grip on power. This deceit has repeatedly caught Western leaders off guard, leading to half-measures and unenforced red lines.

As an analyst, I argue that strength—not diplomacy—is the only language Tehran understands. Whether through targeted strikes on critical infrastructure, such as the elimination of Qassem Soleimani in 2020, or through relentless economic sanctions, the regime only responds when faced with decisive force.

The Cost of Inaction

Failing to act decisively against Tehran risks catastrophic consequences. A nuclear-armed Iran would not only threaten Israel and the Persian Gulf states but also embolden other rogue regimes and non-state actors. The ripple effects of such a development would destabilize global markets, compromise international security, and undermine decades of non-proliferation efforts.

Moreover, Tehran’s regime has shown no hesitation in committing acts of barbarity to maintain its power. From cracking down on domestic protests with brutal force to orchestrating assassinations of dissidents abroad, the mullahs’ tactics reflect their desperation to cling to control. The West must recognize that appeasement or delay only emboldens such behavior.

President Donald Trump speaks at CIA Headquarters in Langley, Virginia, on January 21, 2017. / Picture CIA – Free for all platforms.

The intelligence community’s mission under Ratcliffe’s leadership should be to provide the actionable intelligence necessary to dismantle Tehran’s power structures. This requires a multi-pronged strategy that includes supporting Iranian dissident movements, targeting the regime’s financial lifelines, and leveraging regional alliances to counterbalance Iran’s influence.

The Persian Gulf states, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have already demonstrated a willingness to confront Iran’s aggression. Their cooperation with Israel, underpinned by the Abraham Accords, represents a historic alignment of interests. The CIA must capitalize on this regional unity to create a comprehensive and coordinated response to Tehran’s threats.

The Trump-Netanyahu Opportunity

The partnership between Trump and Netanyahu, both staunch opponents of Iran’s regime, presents a rare alignment of political will and strategic vision. Their commitment to dismantling Tehran’s power structures, combined with the CIA’s enhanced capabilities under Ratcliffe, could reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape.

However, time is of the essence. Every moment of delay allows Tehran to advance its nuclear ambitions, entrench its proxies, and deepen its alliances with adversaries like Russia and China. The window of opportunity to act decisively is narrow, and hesitation could prove disastrous.

***

The rogue theocratic regime in Tehran stands as one of the most dangerous threats to global stability. Its network of proxies, nuclear ambitions, and penchant for barbarity demand a robust and unyielding response. The era of Trump and Netanyahu, supported by a reinvigorated CIA under John Ratcliffe, represents the best chance to confront and dismantle this regime.

Diplomacy has its place, but with Tehran, it has proven to be a losing strategy. The language of strength must prevail if the civilized world is to secure peace and stability in the Middle East. This is not merely an option; it is an imperative. The civilized world cannot afford to wait until it is too late. Regret, as history has shown, will be futile.

Over the years, in my friendly meetings with some friends at the CIA, particularly in the counterterrorism division – CTC– focusing on the Middle East, I have repeatedly stated that the Tehran regime is hollow. Its only cards are terrorism, nuclear weapons, internal repression, and propaganda machine. If each of these cards is gradually removed from its hands, the spider’s web of the mullahs will soon collapse. It is a despised, oppressive, and exploitative regime that will continue to create problems for the U.S., the West, and Israel in the future. This cancerous tumor must be surgically removed and discarded.

Erfan Fard’s book about the Tehran regime has received praise from notable figures such as Michael Morell, the former Acting Director of the CIA, and Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute. They have commended the author’s perspective and analysis presented in the book. / Picture: www.Erfanfard.com