The death of Hezbollah’s leader will cast a shadow of qualm on the entire Middle East

The last few days in the Middle East in which Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and continued to bombard the Iran-backed group across Lebanon, have once more ratcheted up fears that this long-running conflict could spiral into a wider regional war. The death of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is prompting speculation over the future of the militant group and what it will mean for Lebanon as well as for the broader Middle East. Attention is also turning to the man widely regarded as Nasrallah’s heir apparent, Hashem Safieddine. Most would agree, however, that Nasrallah was the “glue” holding the group together, with his death opening up a new, as-yet-unwritten chapter.

As an organization, Hezbollah has in recent months been significantly downgraded in terms of reputation, military capability, leadership, I think the ability to spring back and stand on their feet has been significantly diminished. And while many might have agreed with the group’s criticisms of Israeli actions in Gaza, Iran-backed Hezbollah did not enjoy support among Iran’s regional rivals. There is even a sense of “relief” in some capitals following news of Nasrallah’s death, with Hezbollah viewed as a destabilizing force by many.

A longtime leader of the Iran-backed militia, Nasrallah was born in 1960 to an impoverished family in the north of Lebanon. He was the eldest of nine children and went on to briefly study theology in Iran in 1989. Before co-founding Hezbollah, Nasrallah learned the ropes in the Amal movement, a Shiite political and paramilitary movement. He was chosen to be Hezbollah’s chief two days after its leader, Sayyed Abbas Musawi, was killed by the Israeli military in 1992. Under Nasrallah’s leadership, Hezbollah became one of the most powerful militias in the Middle East, boasting a military force stronger even than the Lebanese army. Funded by Iran, Hezbollah trained troops from Hamas. His organization also provides social services. Nasrallah led his group into a war that pushed Israeli troops out of southern Lebanon in 2000, ending an 18-year occupation. His son, Hadi, was killed in fighting with the Israeli army in 1997, the same year the US designated Hezbollah a terrorist organization.

It’s a failed political landscape which accounts for the long history of conflict in the Middle East. Everybody here is looking at different issues that contribute to Middle Eastern instability. Most of them don’t really contradict each other but rather give different perspectives on what adds to the instability and issues.

In Syria and Yemen, the Arab Spring ended in fiasco. The devastating wars cost countless lives, destroying cities and infrastructure and forcing millions of people to flee. By now, seven million Syrians, one third of the population have left their homeland. Most of them are living in huge refugee camps in Turkey or in Jordan and Lebanon, two countries that are themselves struggling to cope. The military intervention of foreign powers has only prolonged the suffering. Like Yemen and Libya, Syria has long since become a scene of proxy wars between states struggling for regional supremacy.

Iran at this stage is likely trying to work out the best way of responding to Hassan Nasrallah killing. In April, it sent over 300 missiles, drones and rockets into Israel in retaliation for the bombing of an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus in which several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed. But virtually all of them were shot down and there was no serious damage. A repeat of that would indicate Iran really doesn’t have the capacity to take serious action against Israel. In recent years, amid continued political paralysis and economic collapse, compounded by the devastating port explosion four years ago, day to day life in Lebanon has been almost impossible. Colonization, invasion and attack; civil and proxy wars, economic collapse and political assassinations, not to mention regional turmoil and vast influxes of refugees have all knocked on the door of the Lebanese people. The situation is so treacherous because rapid deterioration could happen at any moment on any number of fronts. Hezbollah has thousands of missiles that could target Israeli civilians, meaning that intensified clashes could quickly get very dangerous.