The European Union is becoming a minefield

Nothing is going right with the traditional European team. The French German team does not exist anymore. The American election is a turning point for both Americans and Europeans.

Successively, we witnessed the rise of the German far right AFD and its breakthrough in some of the local elections. This was followed by the failure of the French presidential party in the European elections, which led to the dissolution of the national assembly provoking snap elections. They confirmed this major setback, despite the formation of a unique “republican front” in the second round. France suffers from this situation, faced with a national assembly where groups clash and keep defending partisan interests despite the general interest as their sole goal.  The .liffespan of the government is largely in question, as the culture of compromise and even the very notion of coalition seem so far removed from French political software.

As if the above were not enough, Germany coalition has exploded. A vote of confidence will take place between now and the end of December. This will lead to new elections by March 2025. Meanwhile, a law against anti-Semitism will be passed, enabling the state to fight and punish all anti-Semitic acts, including pro-Palestinian demonstrations. In Germany, there are no more than 110,000 Jews for 85 million Germans.

The glass ceiling has broken No more sanitary belt. The Commission will in future include two far-right Commissioners (current European nomenclature) Raffaele Fitto of G. Melloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party and Oliver Varnelyi of Fidesz, close to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Ms. Von Der Leyen has considered the reality of the large presence of far-right parties in the composition of the assembly, and their capacity to block future decisions. The final vote is scheduled for the next few days.

The French German team

The disagreements between the two countries goals are such that the question is now being raised forcefully: where is the European Union heading to as

Germany faces several major issues in domestic, foreign and economic matters. It cannot, nor does it want to, allow a very weakened France – whose voice on the international stage is almost inaudible – to dictate anything either to Germany or to the European Union. One can only usefully give lessons to others if it has put its own house in order and brought its own turpitudes under control. The events that are now unfolding tend to paint the opposite picture.

Ukraine wr towards internazionalisation

As if that was nont enough, President W. Zelenski finally obtained Washington approval to launch cruise missiles (300 km range) against Russia, UK as well for missiles of British origin. This he did on Monday evening, with the effective collaboration of Washington forces,

Moreover, he also obtained anti-personnel mines, the use of which is prohibited, in principle (160 signatory countries, but not the United States). These devices cause serious injuries and overwhelmingly affect civilians. (1)

Given the new role of the ICC, Will there be any country claiming to indict either country it for war crimes against civilians? 

Symmetrically, the Russian president signed a new bill modifying his nuclear doctrine. In the Kremlin view, the American decisions officially enshrine the concept of internationalization and the entry into conflict of NATO and its members directly confronting Russia. Poland and Germany will be in the front line.  This equivocal concept has been debated since the start of the conflict.  NATO had refrained from intervening directly until then. Russia now reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if it feels that this new situation threatens its positions. Military experts do not believe that these decisions will enable Kiev to reverse the trend, which is confirmed: On one hand the Russian army is holding the front and keep progressing on ground before the onset of winter, which will no doubt see both armies freeze their positions on the frontline given climatic conditions, while continuing to fight from the air. On the other hand, we can expect major bloody movements in the Kursk region, where the North Korean contingent is arriving. Each side will want to anticipate the eventuality of negotiations, to arrive with arguments that include occupation on the ground. This

can only be achieved at the cost of heavy losses on both sides. More victims will be added to the hundreds of thousands of victims already counted, whose number are limited to announcements by both sides. Disinformation is in full swing.

Some see the Russian reaction as a bluff. However, unlike the holders of atomic weapons in Europe, Russia has several thousand so-called tactical mini nuclear bombs – i.e. of lesser capacity than the bomb – which can be used in a smaller radius. This makes it possible to provoke a catastrophe on a chosen scale. This could be a “foretaste” in the event of an escalation, the risk of which is increasing considerably.

The recent dispatch of a hypersonic ballistic missile, capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, is a serious warning.

 Donald Trump election with European eyes

Europeans are disappointed that American voters did not respect their choice. We

seem to have forgotten some of the great lessons of contemporary history. Harry

Truman, a businessman, was a great president.

Ronald Reagan, a B-movie actor, was also a great president. Arnold

Schwarzenegger, an actor of Austrian origin, was a good governor of California, a state comparable to France. Finally, the currently world’s best-known actor, Volodymir Zelenski, a TV comedian who played the role of a comic president was elected President of Ukraine with the support of an oligarch. It’s true that Europeans, and France are more attracted to arguments of authority, diplomas, notoriety and seeking the savior of the nation. The American taxpayer’s heritage does not include 1789 or May 1968, witch, to some extent, could explain the existing difference between the two countries. Perhaps 2024 will become a memorable date, time will tell. The fact remains that, in his first term, Trump achieved the Abraham Accords and the transfer of the American embassy to Jerusalem (2). What his predecessors had voted for ten years earlier, but forgetting about the transfer (neither Bush, nor Obama).

The fate of Ukraine and stability of Europe

What’s next? To conclude, let’s take a closer look:  to settle matters of life and death, a former Ukrainian TV star will be negotiating with a former American TV star in the next few weeks. That how the world goes.

Notes

• Psersonnel mines: Over 150 countries, including the UK, have committed to banning their use, production, stockpiling and transfer under the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention, also known as the Ottawa Treaty. It should be noted, however, that certain major powers such as the USA, Russia and China have not signed this treaty.
• The Jerusalem Embassy Act of 1995^[1]is a public law of the United States passed by the 104th Congress on October 23, 1995. The proposed law was adopted by the Senate (93–5),^[2] and the House (374–37).^[3] The Act became law without a presidential signature on November 8, 1995.ty. It should be noted, however, that certain major powers such as the USA, Russia and China have not signed this treaty.