The Failure of the Gaza War
‘As long as there will be Palestinians in Gaza, there will be Hamas in Gaza.’ Ronen Bar, the outgoing head of the Shin Bet.
The current Gaza War, there have been many in the past, started on October 7, 2023, with Hamas’ attack on the communities and military bases bordering the Gaza Strip. More than 1,200 people were killed by Hamas including civilians, children, and babies, and hundreds of hostages were taken. The attack was fully contained within 36 hours and Israel prepared to go to war with Hamas. Netanyahu and his coalition declared the following objectives for the war: Total victory through the elimination of Hamas and the release of all 251 hostages taken by Hamas. There was no defined plan or objective for the day after; who would govern Gaza and what, if any, would be Israel’s role in a post-Hamas Gaza. To date, 21 months post October 7, while the war grinds on and Israeli soldiers continue to die and be wounded, there still is no plan or objective for the day after. The closest vision of a day after is an unrealistic expectation that Gaza will be ethnically cleansed of its 2.1 million Palestinian inhabitants.
Despite massive bombardment which has effectively reduced most of Gaza to rubble, despite ongoing assassination of Hamas senior and midlevel commanders, who all have been replaced, despite the killing of more than 20,000 Hamas members, who have all been replaced by new recruits, despite the occupation of more than 80% of Gaza, Israel has not as yet been able to declare or define “total victory”. Total victory after 21 months remains as elusive and undefined as it was on October 8, 2023.
Total victory would either be the killing of every Hamas member without replacing the dead or Hamas’ total surrender and disarmament, Disarming is not going to happen for two reasons: firstly Hamas is not going to agree to disarm. Secondly, even if Hamas agrees to disarm it is impossible to verify that they have indeed disarmed. Israel has destroyed a lot of Hamas’ weaponry and the tunnel infrastructure, but Hamas has the technology, tools, and knowledge to rebuild and create new weaponry. The fact is, that regardless of the ongoing assassination of Hamas leaders, together with civilian collateral, as long as there are Palestinians in Gaza, and as long as the conflict with Israel remains unresolved, there will be Hamas, in one form or another, in Gaza.
As for the release of the hostages, after 21 months of warfare, 200 have been released and 50 remain in captivity of which 20 are thought to be still alive. To date, the vast majority of released hostages have been brought home through negotiations. More hostages have been killed by military action than have been released. The IDF and others have long admitted that the only safe way to return the living hostages is via negotiations.
The cost of this war has been crippling in every manner one can describe: psychologically, economically, militarily and reputationally. Added to the cost of the Gaza war have been the short wars with Hezbollah in Lebanon and with Iran. To date, 444 soldiers have fallen in combat in Gaza since ground operations began on October 27, 2023, and 536 were severely wounded out of the total of 2,780 wounded.
Hamas does not have to win to declare victory, they only have to survive. October 7 will quite obviously not be repeated. The IDF, Shin Bet, the Mossad, and the Israeli Police Force will ensure that the Gaza border will not be breached again by large forces. But.. in the absence of a political settlement with the Palestinians, there will be other deadly surprises in the future. The Palestinian violent resistance to Israeli rule will continue until there is a political settlement. There is no military solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict which has raged for more than 100 years. In the absence of a compelling political alternative, Hamas or a similar organization, will continue to govern Gaza and threaten Israel’s security. One can only hope that the next elections will produce a more centrist government capable of negotiating a peace settlement with the Palestinians.
