The Great Trump Dump

If you are one of the laggers in following this fast moving dynamic of the Middle East, here’s the news. Trump and Bibi are no longer BFF. You may need to research a few social media terms and acronyms to continue but, sadly they describe accurately the nature of this relationship. As so well described on the web, following “ghosting”, “situationship” and “cobwebbing”, we are now at “Delicate dumping”, a new toxic breakup trend we should be following. Such is the situation now between Trump and Netanyahu. I shall spell it out for you as this process is the result of several seemingly regular diplomatic events, orchestrated by Trump that accumulate into a severe breakup between the BFs. 

Event one is the recent (possibly ongoing) negotiation initiated by Trump with Iran. While Israel and the U.S. both see the threat of a nuclear Iran, Trump has recently taken action in order to reduce the danger. Thus by initiating negotiation directly with Iran, to the horror of Bibi who has been surgically debrided from this encounter, it is, let’s say, uncomfortable. 

The thing is that back in 2015 a deal had been reached by world powers to limit, control and inspect the process of Iran’s Uranium enrichment in order to limit the danger of Iran creating a nuclear weapon. This was known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA. This agreement with Iran and several leading nations of the world, set a framework whereby the JCPOA limited the range, scale and nature of Iranian nuclear development, and more importantly, involved a regular system of monitoring, inspections on the ground and  transparency by nations of the world  in order to create control and complete transparency. Iran was party to this deal. Such was the nature of the agreement and such was the enactment on the ground according to these rules.

At that time Barak Obama was president of the U.S. whom Netanyahu neither liked nor trusted especially regarding the Iran nuclear matter and the JCPOA.

Consequently Netanyahu relayed these sentiments to his friends and allies in the Republican party in the U.S.  When Trump first won elections to the presidency in 2017, it was an easy game for Netanyahu to persuade him to withdraw from the agreement. In this way Trump could cancel out the Obama achievement and Netanyahu could, so to speak, prove his point. However the downside here was that the modus operandi of the JCPOA which included tight restrictions, regular inspections and monitoring, fell away. Thus it came as no surprise that when Trump was recently reelected, he found an Iran light years ahead in the development and creation of nuclear weapons. Realizing this threat we now see a turnaround by Trump. 

This brings us to current times. Trump has now bypassed Netanayahu and opened up discussions, meetings and contact directly with Iran, realizing that the clock on full nuclear capability has sped up and a threat that was a minor one, is now a major problem both in the middle east and worldwide. Added to this is an emboldened Iran that feeds the radical states and Jihadist movements in the middle east.

So with that said, you may ask where is the big Bibi-Trump breakup? It comes due to Trump fully bypassing Netanyahu, engaging directly with Iran, in an effort to limit the now far advanced nuclear capability they currently have and to cut off the possibility of full nuclear weapons capability. 

The “Art of the Deal” guy simply lost trust in Netanyahu and his government. Why? He was clearly misdirected by him in his first term. And secondly, Netanyahu has shown America and the world that he cannot win a war instigated by his worst enemies who are no more than a terrorist organization, drawn out over unending months, tied down by his ultra nationalist coalition, his trial and seeming loss of judgement. Not winning in Trumpland, is losing. And Trump despises losers.

To add insult to injury, Trump now reaches out to ultra radical forces in control of Syria to persuade them to make a deal with Israel…all this, behind Netanyahu’s back! 

And of course, the most painful of all, he bypasses Bibi and makes a deal via Qatar and the Saudis and other interlocutors including ultimately Hamas, to free a hostage who happens to be an American citizen, while those hostages who are simply Israeli citizens, sit in the tunnels of Hamas. All this in full daylight and in front of the cameras – in front of the world. If this is not a bromance breakup, then what is? 

It is no surprise that the so-called “deal of the century” has now soured: It was made patently clear to Trump in his contact with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States that any attempt at annexation by Israel of the West Bank or Jewish settlement in Gaza will destroy the very fabric of possible regional cooperation. Netanyahu’s government rely on this fanatical settler-colonialist wing to stay in power. Even Trump and his Israel supporters at home, realize that this is anathema. 

Tragically, this is no joke. Israeli hostages are trapped in the most horrendous conditions in Gaza, some are no longer alive. We are left in the hands of directionless Israeli leaders who prioritize winning a war to which end they have failed hopelessly so far; we have a government dominated by radicalized violent settlers who see a future of full colonization the West Bank, and eye Gaza itself as some kind of Jewish settlement (as bizarre as this may seem). We have a prime minister who is in deep trouble with the law, tied down in a corruption trial and just lately in the “Qatargate” scandal. And concomitant to this labyrinth of complexity, a government that openly wishes to destroy Israel’s pristine justice system. 

With respect to Trump vis a vis Netanyahu, bro’hood broken.