The interests of the Gazan people might Trump conventional thinking

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced his ambitious plan to permanently relocate all Gazans to other countries. Assuming the plan is not merely a ploy to leverage the Arab world into applying more pressure on the Palestinians, Trump aims to solve issues faced on both sides of the conflict by disregarding conventional thinking. However, one important voice has been conspicuously absent from the discussion: That of the rank-and-file Gazans.

President Trump likes to make deals, and he identified a very big problem that needs to be solved. For Israel, Gaza has been a thorn in its side for 76 years. From the Fedayeen attacks in the 1950s all the way through the heinous attack of October 7, 2023, Gaza has been a massive headache for Israel that it is desperate to get rid of. For the people of Gaza, they have dealt with decades of war and harsh rule under the Hamas terror group, and now their home has become largely uninhabitable after a war brought upon it by Hamas. The international pandering to their situation through entities like UNRWA has not done them any favors either.

Enter President Trump with a radical idea that would see the entire population of Gaza moved to a “better place,” while Gaza is cleaned out – a process that could take well over a decade. His plan calls for Gazans to be moved to a place that so drastically improves their lives, they will never want to return.

To put it mildly, such an ambitious project will not be easy. Aside from the logistical issues of relocating close to two million people, Trump would have to find countries willing to take them in and that alone will be no small feat.

Nevertheless, Trump’s history of thinking outside the box when it comes to the Middle East has borne fruit. The 2020 Abraham Accords, which he negotiated in a relatively short period of time, bucked the then-conventional thinking that any normalization deal between Israel and the Arab world required a solution to the Palestinian issue as a precondition. Likewise, his line of thinking in Gaza could very well be the out of box thinking needed to solve a near century old problem for those on both sides of the conflict.

In Israel, the reactions to the plan have been almost universally receptive.  Even on Israel’s left, removing the problems presented from Gaza would be a welcome solution to the decades long conflict.

However, to put the plan into place, Trump will need buy in from the Arab world. Jordan and Egypt, the two countries Trump named as potential destinations for the Gazans, are adamantly opposed claiming both security concerns and that the Palestinians should not be removed from their land.

Jordan is 70% Palestinian, but ruled by the Bedouin Hashemite family, which does not want to add to its demographic imbalance especially with a population that is heavily tainted by the Hamas extremist ideology.

As for Egypt, with a population of 120 million, demographics are much less an issue, but the banned Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an offshoot, is a significant threat to the stability of the more secular regime which does not want to invite a potential threat into the country.  That said, the U.S. has no shortage of leverage. The U.S. provides Egypt with about $1.5B in military aid annually, making it the second largest recipient of foreign aid after Israel (not including Ukraine over the past three years), and, along with Israel, Egypt is one of only two countries to which Trump did not freeze foreign aid upon taking office. Hence, any security issues raised by Egypt, or most other countries, are likely solvable.

The main reason for the opposition of the Arab world to the relocation of the Gazans is that is that they do not want to be seen as complicit in any plan that negates the Palestinian (or pan-Arab) claim to Palestine, thus triggering a second Nakhba.

To most of the Arab world, the mere recognition of Israel on its 1967 border is a concession barely tolerated, if at all, and they have shown themselves willing to go so far as to deny the people of Gaza the right to decide for themselves what they want thus making them pawns in their geopolitical agenda, which does not actually care for the well-being of the Palestinians.  This is quite evident from the fact that despite having very harsh words for Israel’s conduct during the war, no Arab country expressed any willingness to assist the Gazan people or absorb any refugees.

Likewise, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas are no better when it comes to the interests of the Palestinians living in Gaza. Both are vociferously opposed to the President’s plan because both have a vested interest in preventing Gazans from relocating. The very unpopular PA needs to have a civilian population for it to remain relevant, and Hamas needs the Gazan population to continue working towards its cynical goal of destroying Israel – the wellbeing of the Gazan people be damned.  Without a civilian population in Gaza, Hamas would no longer have its human shields and would no longer benefit from the international largesse it takes from Gaza’s civilian population to protect itself from destruction.

Similarly, European leaders have rejected the plan, arguing that such a plan cannot be negotiated over the heads of the Palestinians. However, their insistence on sticking to conventional thinking not only does not take the desires of the Palestinian people into account, but it also helps fuel the seemingly never-ending cycle of violence in the region by calling for retrying the very same ideas that have repeatedly failed. European leaders, who ostensibly do not have a vested interest in whatever happens, are just as guilty of what they accuse President Trump of doing:  Speaking on behalf of the Palestinians. At the very least, President Trump’s proposal side steps the mistakes that have led to decades of violence.

Which brings us to the one, very important, voice that has been conspicuously absent from this entire discussion: The desires of the actual Gazans themselves. President Trump says they would “love” to leave, while Arab and European leaders reject the very notion that Palestinians would ever want to leave Gaza. Has any of them asked the people of Gaza what they want?

There is no current poll that captures what percentage of Gazans would leave if given the opportunity for a better and more peaceful life elsewhere, and Hamas is very unlikely to allow a more current poll to be taken. Indeed, interviews with Gazans expressing their desire to emigrate have been suppressed by Hamas and media outlets sympathetic to the terror group. However, a Channel 12 TV report Wednesday night noted that a pre-war survey found that about a third would leave if given the chance, and this number is likely far higher given the current situation in Gaza. Furthermore, the very same report said that the only voices in the Arab world expressing support for Trump’s plan are those coming from Gaza.

Once the Arab world abandons  its use of the Palestinians as pawns in their pan-Arab objective of retaining an Arab hold on as much of what they believe to be historic Palestine as possible, they, and the world at large, might be surprised at how many Gazans would jump at the opportunity to live their life elsewhere. While there certainly could be many Palestinians who insist on remaining in Gaza, there is no good reason that those who want to leave should be prevented from doing so if an adequate host country is found.

Finally, it is also important to note that President Trump’s plan sends a clear message to Hamas and other groups opposed to the recognition of Israel that there is a steep price to pay for terrorism. They must be shown that their actions have consequences; otherwise, they will do whatever they can to regroup, rebuild and restart the cycle of violence.