The Jewish Vote

When I first came to the United States in the summer of 2000, I thought that within a few years I would be back in Israel, with the family and friends that I love so much. However, as the famous Yiddish saying goes, “Mann Tracht, Un Gott Lacht” — man, and in this case woman – plans, and God laughs. Indeed, 24 years later, I am still here, in the U.S., an Israeli-American. Needleless to say, I have been very humble in my plans ever since, and predictions. Being humble in one’s predictions when it comes to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, couldn’t be more fitting.

The number of Israeli-Americans in the U.S. is estimated to be over 190,000 according the 2020 U.S. census, while other unsourced estimates claim the number is substantially higher. Overall, the Jewish population in the U.S. according to the Pew Research Center as of 2021 accounts for a mere 2.4%. 5.8 million out of a population of 337 million.

When speaking at the annual meeting of the Israeli-American Council National Summit in Washington, D.C. back in September, Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump, said that Jewish-American voters will be partly to blame if he loses the November 5 election to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. How, a reasonable person may ask, can a population of just 2.4% be held partly responsible to anyone losing or winning an election in the U.S.?

This election is projected to be the closest presidential election in 60 years, according to an analysis by Harry Enten, host of CNN’s Margins of Error, with neither candidate polling more than 5 points ahead of the other. An analysis by the non-partisan Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) indicates that Jewish voters could play a decisive role in determining the control of Congress and the White House in the 2024 elections. One reason is that Jewish voters consistently turn out at some of the highest rates of any ethnic group, positioning them as pivotal in tight Senate, gubernatorial and House races with significant Jewish populations. And, are among the most consistently liberal and Democratic voters, according to a 2020 study by Pew Research. An average of three out of four Jewish voters have supported the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1992.

Throughout the years, in discussions with Israeli-American friends, it seemed that, regardless of their political leanings, all felt it was essential for their candidate to be supportive of safekeeping and fostering the strong ties between the U.S. and Israel. In contrast, for some American-Jewish voters, the U.S.-Israel relationship and support of a strong Israel was important, but for many, it was further down their priorities list, or didn’t make the list at all. October 7^th and the antisemitic wave that became apparent shortly thereafter, may have shifted that paradigm. If in the past the Boycott, Divestment, Sanctions (BDS) movement on U.S. university campuses could be dismissed by some Jewish-Americans as a legitimate criticism of the government of Israel, after October 7^th all excuses ran dry. The truth could no longer be denied, antisemitism in all its ugliness was front and center. The anti-Zionism, anti-Israel chanting on U.S. university campuses and streets could no longer be ignored.

And then, there is also “it’s the economy, stupid” A phrase famously coined by James Carville, a strategist for then-candidate Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign. U.S. voters have consistently expressed their concern over the economy and inflation. In an April study by the Jewish Electorate Institute, the economy (26%) was among the top four issues of significance for Jewish voters, with the future of democracy taking the lead (46%), followed by abortion (30%), and Israel (25%).

Battleground or swing states, are 7 states that are expected to decide this election: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. A large proportion of Jews live in states that are not considered battlegrounds, however, the Jewish vote is a notable percentage in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Arizona (11 electoral votes) and Michigan (16 electoral votes). As a reminder, back in 2020, President Biden won Pennsylvania by only 81,000 votes.

According to an early October poll of Jewish Dems Polling, a project of JDCA, the Jewish Democratic Council of America, among the voters in battleground states, more than 7 out of 10 Jewish voters plan to support Kamala Harris in a direct match-up with Donald Trump, with 26% planning to support Trump and 4% remaining undecided. According to the poll, the top issues among Jewish voters are democracy and abortion. The CEO of the Republican Jewish Coalition, on the other hand, said in an ad campaign launched on October 20 that Jewish voters, some of whom have never voted for a Republican in their lives, understand the incredibly high stakes in this election.  The Manhattan Institute, a nonpartisan public policy research organization, published its key takeaways of a poll done between October 5^th and 9^th, noting that although Jewish voters remain largely aligned with the Democratic Party, there are growing cracks in that support.

During these tremulous times, in discussion with fellow Israeli-Americans, all seem to share the feeling that no U.S. election in our lifetime is as important for the security of Israel and the Western world as this election. Add to that the uncertainty that remains around when the official results of the presidential race will be declared, some say it may take days, or even weeks. Several factors could impact the timing, including the pace at which absentee or mail-in ballots are processed and the likelihood of legal challenges, which are expected regardless of the outcome.  As quoted in the April 22, 1955 New York Times article, in response to being asked why people could discover atomic power, but not the means to control it, Albert Einstein said “That is simple my friend: because politics is more difficult than physics.” As true today and it was then.