The Most Important Election Nobody Votes In
It is worth noting that primaries have become one of the defining features of American politics in recent years. Hardly a week passes without news of a contested primary, a primary challenge, or analysis of what a primary result means for the future of a political party. This reflects a growing recognition that real political power is often decided long before November, as well as the increasing influence of organized movements across the political spectrum.
Every November, Americans are reminded that Election Day is one of the most important responsibilities of citizenship.
But what if the election that most determines the future of the country isn’t held in November at all?
What if it takes place months earlier, draws only a fraction of voters, receives far less attention, and yet often determines who will ultimately govern?
That election is the primary.
In many congressional districts, state legislative races, mayoral contests, and even presidential campaigns, the primary is the decisive contest. By the time voters reach November, the most important choice may already have been made.
This is one of the least understood realities of American democracy.
Primaries do more than select party nominees. They shape the direction of political parties, determine which ideas gain national traction, and elevate leaders while ending other political careers before most voters are engaged.
In many districts where one party dominates, winning the primary is effectively equivalent to winning the office itself.
Why do so few Americans participate in the election that may matter most?
The answer is not a lack of intelligence or interest. It is misalignment. Civic attention is focused on November while the contests that determine the actual choices available to voters receive only a fraction of the attention.
In 2020, about 66% of eligible voters participated in the general election. By contrast, turnout in presidential primaries averaged roughly 28%, and many congressional and state legislative primaries draw fewer than one in five eligible voters.
When turnout is low, highly organized political movements can exert influence far beyond their size because they understand that power begins with nominations.
In many California legislative districts where one party dominates, and where district boundaries together with geographic political sorting often make the general election largely noncompetitive, the primary often determines not only who will hold office but also the ideological direction of representation.
Early money—donations, endorsements, institutional support—also carries outsized influence because it often determines which candidates can compete long enough to win the nomination.
Presidential politics reflects the same principle. The nomination process is no longer merely a prelude to the general election. It is the contest that determines which vision of a political party will ultimately face the electorate. Candidates spend months—and often years—building organizations, raising money, and competing because they understand one fundamental reality: winning the primary is what earns the opportunity to compete for the presidency itself and often reshapes the future direction of the party.
The Democratic Socialists of America provide one contemporary example of how disciplined participation can shape outcomes. By concentrating on candidate recruitment and primary contests, the organization has demonstrated how a relatively small but well-organized movement can influence which candidates appear on the ballot.
Donald Trump’s victories in Republican presidential primaries reshaped the Republican Party. The growing influence of the Democratic Socialists of America in Democratic primaries has intensified debate over the future direction of the Democratic Party. Whether one applauds or opposes those developments, they underscore the same lesson: primaries do more than choose candidates—they shape parties.
As organized movements become more successful in primaries, centrist Democrats have increasingly found themselves defining and defending their own governing philosophy. Primaries are not simply selecting officeholders; they are helping define the future identity of the major parties.
Democracy rewards participation. Political power ultimately belongs to those who show up. If Americans want broader coalitions, stronger competition, and parties that better reflect their voters, greater participation in primaries is an essential part of that effort.
Democracy does not begin in November. It begins in the primary. And the most consequential election in America may be the one too many Americans never vote in.
Author Bio
Karen Lehmann is a journalist, photographer, a blogger for The Times of Israel, and a columnist for Man and Culture. She writes on American politics, public policy, Israel, and culture.