The Opposition’s Election Campaign Strategy
Although there are a number of substantive reasons to oppose the reelection of the current Israeli government, the opposition parties’ campaign would be most effective by stressing one issue above all: The gross unfairness of the reality that almost all Haredi men do not serve in the military but nonetheless benefit from policies that overly favor the Haredi population.
The reelection of the present coalition could be opposed based on an array of failures and shortcomings:
* The catastrophe that happened on October 7th, with all the attendant suffering, has changed Israel in profound ways not yet well understood.
* The almost catastrophe: Had Hizbullah and Iran attacked in full force simultaneously with Hamas, Israel might have been lost. Somehow, our leaders let this be possible. Luck saved us.
* The extreme and uncompromising judicial reform split the nation severely. Unbridled and unprecedented attacks on legal institutions and persons are highly destructive.
* The near total draft evasion by age-eligible Haredi men has long been a glaring violation of the ideal of the equal sharing of the burden of military service. The long war made this violation unbearable. It must end.
* Without serious discussion, Smotrich has pushed a major expansion of Jewish housing throughout Judea and Samaria (West Bank) to thwart any possibility of a separate Palestinian entity in the future, even one with leaders who endorse the legitimacy of Israel as a Jewish state and agree to solid security arrangements; Smotrich’s success might make our future a bi-national one, discarding the precious Jewish majority society that has achieved so much.
* The dramatic loss in support for Israel abroad since October 2023, particularly in North America, is a grave development. Some of that loss was unavoidable, but words and actions of Ben-Gvir, Smotrich, Levin and others have made it worse, as has Benjamin Netanyahu’s embrace of Republicans and his extreme closeness to the increasingly unpopular Donald Trump.
* The government’s refusal to establish a state commission of inquiry, a norm that has been respected after past major calamities in Israel.
* Since 2023, there has been significant net negative emigration from Israel, disproportionately among younger working-age individuals. This is in stark contrast to positive net immigration to Israel in most past years.
* Policing failures have contributed to an unprecedented number of murders in the Arab sector and, moreover, have been marked by a failure to prevent or punish most anti-Arab violence regrettably committed by Jews in Judea and Samaria (West Bank.)
There have been successes as well, the most significant being the degradation of Iran’s nuclear and missile threat and the weakening of Iran’s ring of proxies during the war. Weakened but not gone.
As prime minister for all but one and a half years since 2009, Benjamin Netanyahu bears ultimate responsibility for all of the above. Having lived in the United States for various periods, including his high school years, Netanyahu undoubtedly heard the expression, “The buck stops here,” and learned that President Harry Truman kept a sign with that expression on his desk. It means taking responsibility and not shifting blame onto others. A lesson not well learned, it seems.
The specific structure of the present coalition, which Netanyahu chose, has given the Haredi parties, the extreme right-wing parties and extreme elements within the Likud undue power to pursue policies favoring narrow interest groups, policies that are the opposite of what a broad, centrist coalition would have supported.
So, should the opposition’s campaign again sing a loud “anti-Bibi” song? No. While Netanyahu is the one ultimately responsible, focusing the election campaign too much on him and his personality, as well as attacks on his family, risks giving the campaign too much of an ad hominem flavor. This would encourage his supporters to rally behind him, shut their ears to most criticism and embrace rhetoric about “deep-state” conspiracies to remove him.
Instead, the campaign should focus on the cascade of adverse developments during this current coalition’s rule and stress the issue of unfairness, especially of military service, above all. Why? The unfairness argument is likely to appeal widely across the electorate, while some of the other criticisms might just elicit push back from voters who supported the current coalition parties in the past. The opposition’s campaign should contrast the lives of those who serve with those who evade the draft, including the great burdens borne by the spouses and children of reservists who have been called upon to serve for hundreds of days during the war.
The grossly uneven burden, which tragically includes the deaths and injuries of soldiers and the anguish of their broken-hearted families, is a great social wrong that must be addressed and ameliorated. There was a time when equality of burden was a lesser value than helping the Haredi part of Jewry recover from its major losses during the Holocaust. That justification is long gone. Instead of reflecting neediness, Haredi leaders too often exude an excessive sense of entitlement. Yes, implementing compulsory military service for Haredim, even gradually, will be resisted by Haredi leaders and the more extreme cadres among the Haredi population; however, this must be faced and overcome because the status quo will otherwise become increasing unbearable and unsustainable.
As a complement to a campaign focused on unfairness, the persons chosen on party lists as candidates for the next Knesset should include a wide spectrum of individuals: some observant, some “traditional” and some secular; some new faces and some old faces; and the lists should include a significant share of women. Such inclusive lists will best reflect the broad population that is united in rejecting the unfairness of Haredi military draft evasion and the undue influence of Haredi politicians on budgets, education policy and other matters.
The focus must be on internal healing. However, at the same time, if the Israeli electorate chooses a new prime minister who proceeds to form a broad, centrist coalition, the very large task of restoring support for Israel in North America and elsewhere will be much more doable. Such restoration is a strategic necessity for Israel in the medium and long run.