This Friday, 3 June, President Hollande will host 20 nations in Paris to frame a resolution to solve the Israel-Palestinian problem.
In contradistinction to the Madrid conference of 1992,Israel, a sovereign State and a central party to the issue, is not invited,while “Palestine” proxies will try to drive the agenda.
Perhaps the gathering is a legacy of a centennial revisit to the May 1916 Sykes-Picot secret agreement, whereby France and Britain later divided the post-Ottoman Middle-East into Mandates over what became Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and, of course, Palestine.
French former Foreign Minister,Laurent Fabius, in his January announcement of this conference already indicated a roadmap:
— to issue a call for Israel to withdraw to its 1967 lines including East Jerusalem, for a Palestine state by the end of 2017.Minor border corrections to be discussed in the interim
— If Israel refuses, Fabius suggested that France would then recognize Palestine.This precedent would free the EU bloc and other regional groups to follow suit
–Reports point to France presenting this plan as a resolution to the UN Security Council in the period between the US Presidential election and Inauguration of the next President in January 2017 i.e. probably in mid to late Novermber or early to mid- December
–The presence, after due consideration, of John Kerry in Paris on 3 June is seen in diplomatic circles as testing the waters for the outgoing Obama administration for a possible decision not to veto the French resolution, which would then be argued as binding
From this point the Roadmap becomes as speculative as a classical simulation game:
–If Israel were to reject essentially a diktat, one could expect a non-binding UN General Assembly resolution to follow, calling to isolate Israel by rupturing diplomatic relations and imposing an international boycott
–UN Blue Berets or even NATO could be invited in by sovereign Palestine to vet the situation. Israel would surely refuse,further aggravating its status
–The Palestinians – both Fatah and Hamas in strident rivalry – could announce as sovereign policy: “no settlement until the return of all ’67 and ’48 refugees”, a condition already incorporated in the Saudi “Arab Initiative” which is vaunted as a key instrument of the Paris doctrine
Who benefits from Paris 2016?:
–Not necessarily Francois Hollande,but probably a several million ethnic vote bonanza for the Socialist Party Presidential candidate in the Spring 2017 elections
–What for the newly jobless Nobel Peace Laureate, President Obama?
Why not the new “Tony Blair” of the Quartet Middle East Roadmap?
–Jerusalem? If any point in this scenario is credible, perhaps it may be a good time to forge a National Unity Government
–For the Jewish World? A paraphrase of the old British workers’ ditty:
“Its the same the whole world over…
Ain’t it all a bloody shame
Its the rest what get the clover
Its the Jews what get the blame!”