The Red Sea Tightrope: Saudi Arabia, Somaliland, and Israel’s Strategic Foothold
Whether Saudi Arabia is a dependable U.S. security partner remains contested among policymakers and analysts. Critics argue that the relationship has become less reliable due to diverging strategic interests, energy policies, political values, and security expectations.
Why Critics Question Saudi Reliability
The United States and Saudi Arabia historically cooperated to counter regional threats, but their priorities have increasingly diverged. Under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Riyadh has adopted a pragmatic “Saudi First” foreign policy that balances relations with multiple global powers. Growing ties with China and Russia, participation in BRICS, and the Chinese-brokered rapprochement with Iran demonstrate that Saudi Arabia no longer views its security exclusively through a U.S.-centered framework.
Energy policy has also become a source of tension. While the traditional “oil-for-security” arrangement linked Saudi energy production to U.S. security support, Riyadh now prioritizes domestic economic objectives, particularly Vision 2030. Saudi-led OPEC+ production cuts have at times conflicted with U.S. requests for higher output.
Human rights concerns further complicate the partnership. Events such as the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the Saudi-led intervention in Yemen generated criticism in Washington and prompted efforts to restrict military cooperation. Critics also note that Saudi Arabia seeks strong U.S. security guarantees while offering limited reciprocal commitments. Despite high defense spending, Saudi forces remain heavily dependent on U.S. systems, contractors, and technical support.
Supporters of the alliance counter that Saudi Arabia remains strategically important because of its intelligence cooperation against extremist groups, influence over regional stability, and role in securing critical maritime routes.
Red Sea Security and Saudi Strategy
Saudi Arabia has substantial economic interests tied to Red Sea stability, particularly as Vision 2030 megaprojects such as NEOM develop along its western coast. Yet Riyadh has avoided direct participation in Western-led military operations against Houthi threats. Saudi leaders have sought to preserve their détente with Iran and avoid reigniting large-scale conflict in Yemen.
Instead, Saudi Arabia emphasizes regional capacity building, support for local security institutions, and maritime cooperation frameworks. Its preferred approach relies on diplomacy, intelligence sharing, and local partners rather than direct military intervention alongside Western navies.
Saudi Israeli Normalization
The United States has promoted normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel as a potential cornerstone of regional stability. Advocates argue that such an agreement could strengthen security cooperation, deepen economic ties, and integrate Israel more fully into the Middle East.
For Saudi Arabia, however, normalization is linked to broader demands. Riyadh has sought strong U.S. security guarantees, assistance with a civilian nuclear program, and progress toward a Palestinian state. Supporters view a comprehensive agreement as a stabilizing force, while critics warn that unresolved regional grievances could undermine its long-term effectiveness.
The Somaliland Factor
A further complication emerged with Israel’s recognition of Somaliland. Supporters of the move argue that stronger Israeli ties with Somaliland enhance monitoring of strategic Red Sea and Gulf of Aden routes and help counter regional security threats. They contend that Somaliland’s geographic position near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait offers an important platform for maritime security cooperation.
For Saudi Arabia, the development presents a dilemma. Any reduction in threats to shipping and commercial infrastructure benefits the Kingdom. At the same time, support for Somaliland risks controversy because of concerns regarding Somalia’s fictional territorial integrity and broader regional sensitivities. Saudi Arabia has therefore had to balance security interests with diplomatic and political considerations.
Some analysts argue that an Israeli presence in Somaliland could indirectly support Saudi objectives by strengthening security around key maritime chokepoints, monitoring illicit networks, and protecting regional trade. A more secure Horn of Africa could reduce risks to Red Sea commerce and complement Saudi ambitions to become a global logistics hub. Supporters also view Somaliland’s port and infrastructure as valuable assets for regional trade connectivity.
The Diplomatic Tightrope
Despite potential security benefits, Saudi Arabia has strong incentives to maintain public support for Somali sovereignty and broader Arab and Islamic consensus positions. Riyadh has reaffirmed support for Somalia’s so-called territorial integrity while criticizing actions viewed as undermining established diplomatic norms.