The right-wing parties can’t do math

I don’t understand why the right-wing parties don’t want the Arab parties to run in the upcoming election.

Hypothetically, let’s assume that the right-wing were successful in removing all Arab parties from the election slate. What would happen?

Some fraction of their voters would stay home in frustration. But some other fraction would vote nonetheless. Who would they vote for? Presumably, for left-of-center candidates from Zionist parties. Given how close this election will be, this would almost certainly add Knesset seats to the anti-government parties and the right-wing would lose the election.

Let’s use some reasonable numbers to illustrate the point. Let’s say, for example, that with all parties running, the right-wing bloc would get approximately 54 seats, the opposition would get approximately 54 seats, and the Arab parties would get approximately 12. These numbers are not very far away from the current polls.

Let’s further assume that if the election commission were successful in removing the Arab parties from the slate that half the voters who lost their preferred party would simply not vote in protest, but half of the votes for those parties would find a replacement party to vote for. It would not be hard to imagine that overwhelmingly they would vote for opposition parties.

In this scenario, with the incumbents and the opposition starting at rough parity (54 v 54), the opposition would pick up the equivalent of six more seats from those who no longer had an Arab party to vote for. That would make it 60 to 54 in favor of the opposition. Of course, there would be fewer votes total, so it would take fewer votes to get a Knesset seat. It would turn out that the opposition wins the elections with about 63 seats with 57 going to the incumbents.

Personally, I’m not taking a position on who should win the election or who should people vote for. I’m only trying to point out an anomaly about the math. If the Likud wants to force voters away from parties that are unlike to serve in any coalition (i.e. certain Arab parties) and force them to vote for parties that are likely to oppose the Likud – that is their democratic prerogative. It just seems counterproductive.

There also could be a larger lesson in all of this. There is a great deal of jockeying for position between and among the parties. I’m guessing that the entire electorate is more interested in learning what each party stands for, and what they will do if elected.