The Road To Free The Hostages Alive Is In Tehran

The road to releasing all the hostages and significantly reducing the threat of a multi-front war is through Tehran.  As explained below, Iran commands Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and the various militant groups launching attacks against U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq.  These groups attack with the express permission of Iran, and if Iran were to order them all to cease-fire they will do so.  Similarly, if Iran were to order Hamas to release the hostages immediately, Hamas would be obliged to do so.  All that is required to bring about this result is to make it in Iran’s interest to tell Hamas to release its hostages, and tell Hezbollah to cease-fire.  In fact, Hezbollah would be obliged to obey Iran even if Iran ordered Hezbollah to move their military assets behind the Litani River.

The only reason this has not happened is because Iran does not suffer any violent consequences for the actions of its terror proxies. That is why, this weekend, we learned that six hostages were murdered in captivity by Hamas militants, as the IDF neared the position where the hostages were being held.  What consequence has Iran suffered as a result of the acts of its proxy?  Iran would sorely feel the pain of any loss of its drone factories, naval ships, ports, and logistical conduits for the transport of its oil (Iran’s biggest main export aside from terrorism).  Israel is more than capable of hitting these targets, as demonstrated earlier this year, and in fact it was this very realization that the Ayatollah Khomeini chose to forego attacking Israel directly despite previously declaring that intention.  Were Iran to begin losing these military and financial assets, Iran’s interest would be to not risk further destruction of Iran’s strategic assets for the sake of the health of Hamas or any Israeli hostages.  In fact, the reason Iran developed and directs groups like Hezbollah, and supports and supervises Hamas is because Iran wanted to have those groups attack Israel on Iran’s behalf (as Iran’s proxies) in the hope Israel would respond only to Hamas and Hezbollah rather than their boss – Iran.  To date, that has been precisely what has been happening, and the only solution to make the attacks stop is to reverse that dynamic.

The current security situation that Israel is contending with is one that is extremely unfavorable to Israel, and that is not by chance.  It is the long intended outcome of a plan by Iran, which has for decades been equipping, training, funding, and closely directing every militant group surrounding the State of Israel.  This includes Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, various terror groups in Syria, and elsewhere such as the Houthis in Yemen.  Under Iran’s strategy, placing threats around Israel is meant to be the worst possible scenario for Israel, in which if Iran chooses to fully release its proxies then Israel will have to fight on multiple fronts near and far all at the same time.  The reason Iran has successfully achieved its “ring of fire” plan, which Israel is now dangerously close to experiencing in full, is because for decades to this day Iran has not faced any direct military reprisals for the violent acts committed by Iran’s terror proxies.  Except for one instance when the United States killed General Qasem Soleimani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, in retribution for prior attacks on the U.S. military and to prevent imminent future attacks.  The result was, aside from some immediate symbolic shows of force that were aimed not to kill anyone, all lethal attacks on the United States by Iranian proxies ceased for the time the U.S. policy (to respond to the death of U.S. military personnel) was enforced.

The reason Iran would order Hamas to cease any further harm to the hostages, release all of them immediately in one stage, and even order Hezbollah to remove its militants and military assets from the border with Israel is because Iran did not create these terror proxies to be liabilities for Iran.  The second they become real liabilities to Iran, the Iranian regime must weigh the benefits and costs of refusing to cooperate with the U.S. and Israeli interest in freeing their hostages and achieving stability in the current military conflict.  While Iran would likely be willing to go all the way with a multi-front war in the event Israel attempted to topple the Iranian regime or significantly attack Iran’s nuclear project, Iran has very little reason to lose its economic and military assets for the sake of the lives of foreign hostages or the particular ground on which Hezbollah militants stand (i.e. whether they are an inch from the Israeli border or many kilometers away).

The policy should therefore be for Israel to destroy Iranian assets, like those listed above, for every hair harmed on a hostage, for every time an Iranian proxy attacks Israel at home or Israelis abroad, for every day that the hostages are not released safe and alive to their families, and for every day that Hezbollah refuses to place its militants and weapons behind the Litani River.

The alternative to this path for the release of the hostages is to cave to Hamas’s demands.  This all but guarantees the existence of Hamas in Gaza and incentivizes every terror group around the world to kidnap Israeli hostages – to repeat the atrocities of October 7, 2023 and murder hostages in captivity – because the terror groups will gain their objective of freeing terrorists convicted of terrorism and weaken the very fabric of the security of the State of Israel until Israel is no more.  This “cave-in alternative” means there definitely will be hostages again in the future and those hostages may very well be you, your siblings, children, parents, and/or grand-parents on their next vacation in Israel or during their nap at home or their commute to work or school in Israel.  That is no way to contend with terrorism.  The only road to preventing this future, and the safe return of our hostages, is through punishing Tehran.