The Shape of Things to Come?

It is a cliché that prediction is dangerous, especially about the future, but here goes:

Israel has probably entered an extended period of stagnation with regard to its military and diplomatic activities, pending the coming elections.  The likelihood (not a certainty of course) is that there will be a new government 2-3 months after Oct. 27 with a new PM, most probably Eisenkot. Bibi will not give any ground to Trump before Oct. 27; afterwards he’ll be trying desperately to build a new coalition, so he probably won’t then either. Thus, we are facing 5-6 months during which things will fester and few decisions will be made except for political advantage. Assuming we get through that period and Eisenkot is in fact PM, we really know nothing about what he is liable to do. He has built his success to date on being someone both centrists and rightists, and even moderate leftists like Raviv Drucker, have seen as leaning towards them. Bibi-ology may soon become an unnecessary art; unfortunately Trump will still be there and the midterms are unlikely to have much effect on American foreign policy.

The truly dangerous time may be in the weeks and months after October 27, as Bibi realizes that his main goal of the last decade has finally failed, that of keeping himself in office.  He may go to jail, eventually, but that is still far off.  What will matter to him and Israelis, as well as Palestinians,  Lebanese, Iranians and others within Israel’s reach, as well as Jews around the world and all others engaged in Israel-watching, is that he will be a rebuffed leader, and that, like a wounded bear, can be extremely dangerous.    Bibi sees himself as a man of history like Churchill, to whom he likes to compare himself.  However, when Churchill unexpectedly lost the election held immediately after Germany’s surrender in 1945, he was at the height of his power, having just won the most destructive war in history.   Israel, however, by contrast is in the middle of multiple wars, and Bibi can only claim that he has saved Israel by preventing worse, a threadbare claim that most Israeli clearly reject.

Unfortunately Israel, unlike the U.K. where a rejected government moves out and is replaced within days, has a system where extended periods of bargaining are circumscribed by deadlines that are always extended.  Meanwhile, the old government remains in place  with powers that are somewhat circumscribed, but it, and especially its PM, are very much in charge. He has surrounded himself with a cabinet comprised of sycophants and incompetents (epitomized by Defense Minister Yisrael Katz) and a second circle of radicals who are open about their intentions to destroy Israeli democracy and expel Palestinians, epitomized, but not limited to, Ben-Gvir and Smotrich.  They are likely to supercharge what they are already doing in the West Bank and Gaza.  Settlers are daily seizing Palestinian land and property in the West  Bank, increasingly with the active  support of the army and police, which Smotrich and Ben Gvir, respectively, have been subverting for four years; Smotrich as a minister in the Defense Ministry with authority over the West Bank, while Ben-Gvir has been Minister of National Security, with authority over the police.  Ben-Gvir has been energetically promoting those who support his violent, messianic agenda and firing those who don’t, so the Israel police, or parts of it, new constitute a private police force with a mission, similar to ICE in the US.  Smotrich has been drafting laws and regulations that tie the West Bank ever more tightly to Israel.  In Gaza Bibi has increased Israeli-controlled territory from 53%to 60% and threatens to go  to 70%, with most of  the 2.1 million Gazans crowded into the remainder.

What will a Prime  Minister Eisenkot do?  Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but if he is as thoughtful as everyone seems to report, he will have to act immediately to repair Israel’s domestic dysfunction, its regional standing, and its grievous state in world – including U.S. – opinion.  However, the first order of business will be to put together a fullscale judicial inquiry as to the events leading up  to and following Oct. 7, 2023, perhaps right up to the present.  The latter two items – world and regional standing must be next on his agenda, because much of the domestic discord is security-related.

I assume he will not touch Palestinian self-determination for years, if ever.  This is not what I wish done, but what I think a thoughtful, non-ideological Israeli with a security orientation might do.  What we might realistically expect is genuine policing of settler violence in the West Bank, perhaps a drawback in Gaza, and a meaningful ceasefire in Lebanon.  The question will be how Israel’s genuine foes will react to a meaningful change of tone and personnel.

Presumably the various elements of the judicial overhaul will be withdrawn or rescinded.  Former Chief Justice Aharon Barak’s “judicial revolution” might not be fully restored, but it is to be hoped that the guardrails of judicial independence will be strengthened.

What I hope PM Eisenkot might also reexamine but doubt he will, is the seemingly unquestioned assumption that Iran is an existential danger to Israel, given that Trump’s and Bibi’s policies have firmly reseated the Islamic Republic. Iran wishes Israel ill, but from a considerable distance – in my view “existential danger” dangerously overstates the case, but I lack the Mossad’s purported 360 degree view of all that goes on there.

I personally doubt that Israel’s own condition can be normalized without an end to the occupation of the West Bank and Gaza and self-determination for Palestinians under whatever scheme, preferably some form of confederation.  But if  Eisenkot successfully carries out the wishlist above, it’s not dayyenu but, rather, good preparation for a worthy successor who will actually remove the noose Israel has kept around its neck for 59 years and counting.