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Dan Ganor

The Shiite strategic patience is the real terror

Hezbollah's leader Hassan Nasrallah's Tweet on August 5th, 2024
“There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it.” (Alfred Hitchcock).

The anticipation of a response from the Shiite axis towards Israel following the assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Fuad Shukr in Beirut illustrates this statement. Many Israeli citizens are genuinely worried about the attack and are trying to gather information from news analysts and reports from Arab newspapers to understand when, how, and where the anticipated attack will occur.

The waiting period in April between the assassination of the senior Iranian official, Hassan Mahdavi, at the Iranian consulate in Damascus, and the Iranian drone attack lasted nearly two weeks. Two weeks of long anticipation and deep concern culminated in one night of sirens and very little damage. But the attack itself was not the main story. The anxiety that Iran managed to create among many Israelis for two weeks and the disruption of their plans is the real victory, even if most of the ballistic missiles were intercepted.

The principle by which Iran and Hezbollah operate is strategic patience. The principle of patience (sabr) is expressed in the Quran in Surah Al-Baqarah, verse 153, where it is said that “Allah is with those who are patient.” The term has become a real ideology among the Shiite axis, especially in Iran and Hezbollah. In almost every speech by Nasrallah, he emphasizes the value of patience. Last March, he said, “Victory is for those who are patient, who stand firm. The matter requires more time; the Israeli society has already started to tire. The army is tired, the society is tired, the economy is tired. More patience will force the enemy to stop the aggression, be defeated, and admit his failure.”

The value of patience guides the Iranians and Hezbollah before they respond to an Israeli action. This is in contrast to the Israeli mindset, which sees a long wait before responding as insecurity or weakness. But in addition to the religious value, the waiting and patience serve the strategic goal of Iran and Hezbollah – to create terror and fear among Israeli citizens.

Day after day, hour after hour, as Israeli TV channels and news apps report another potential update about the nature of the attack, it generates more attention. Each piece of attention raises the level of pressure and anxiety among many citizens who try to plan their daily lives under the shadow of the Shiite threat. This is the real terror.

On July 25, 2022, Nasrallah was interviewed by Al Mayadeen channel. During the interview, Nasrallah was asked how he sees the end of Israel. Nasrallah replied: “I see the end scene of Israel – people walking with suitcases to airports, seaports, and border crossings with Jordan and Egypt. Israel has no future.” Nasrallah understands that the destruction of Israel will be through exhausting its citizens, making life in Israel unbearable. Therefore, the waiting period we are currently experiencing, similar to April, serves him and the axis in their struggle against Israel.

So what can be done? We can ask Dr. Y. Meir, who published in the newspaper “Haboker” on February 23, 1948, 14 recommendations for citizens to cope with the psychological pressure of the War of Independence. For instance, it is not advisable to read the newspaper before bed or listen to the radio five times a day, and it is highly recommended to go to a concert or theater. In our context – do not change plans if not necessary, exercise, listen to music, sit in cafes, turn off phone notifications, and watch the best Israeli appearance in the Olympics of all time. Because only in this way can we win.

About the Author
Dan Ganor is an intelligence analyst with extensive experience in counter-terrorism. He is a research fellow at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT), where he also hosted and produced "The Terrorist" podcast.
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