The Blogs: The Split in Israeli Society

Split in Israeli Society: From Internal Contradictions to the Global Context

Old and New Divisions in Israeli Society Old and new disagreements in Israeli society merge into two opposing worldviews. The main problem is that the unified society has split into two groups with incompatible views, forced to coexist within one state.

The “Dor Moria” analytical center conducted 13 mass sociological studies in 2023-2024, exploring the “ontological bubble” hypothesis. The research confirmed the existence of two opposing groups in Israel: secular-liberal and conservative-religious.

Dor Moriah Expert Discussion (Courtesy Dor Moriah)

Trump as the Messiah? “Dor Moria” explored one topic that divides Israeli society — attitudes towards the U.S. presidential elections. In 2023 and 2024, along with the centers “Maagar Mochot” and “Geocartography,” two mass surveys were conducted.

September 2023 Results:

Religious Israelis support Republicans (33–50%);
Secular and Arabic-speaking citizens favor Democrats (43–45%).

Data from August-September 2024:

Support for Trump increased to 57.6%;
Support for Harris dropped to 15.5%.

Religious groups see Trump as almost a messiah who will help expand territories and restore the Third Temple. Liberals consider him a threat to democracy and a possible cause of a new war in the Middle East.

One presidential term is too short for the drastic changes Trump has planned in the U.S., especially given the complicated geopolitical situation. Therefore, many expectations and fears of Israelis regarding the rise of a Republican president may turn out to be exaggerated.

Israel Between the Collective West and the Global South Israel, being the sacred center of three world religions and a key information hub, has turned, like Ukraine, into a symbolic battlefield between the Collective West and the Global South.

What the Surveys show:

70% of Israelis see a link between the conflict in Ukraine and global confrontation.
42% associate the war with Hamas with the same confrontation.

Israel’s significant role in contemporary geopolitical confrontations, along with Trump’s “messianic” plans, creates both great opportunities and great risks for Israel.

To better understand the situation regarding Trump’s “role” in Israel’s future, the “Dor Moria” center conducted an expert survey, the results of which will also help prepare a new mass sociological survey of Israelis to monitor the dynamics of social divisions, based on the hypothesis of an existing “ontological bubble” in Israel.

President Donald Trump walks with the Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, Tuesday, March 14, 2017, along the Colonnade outside the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)
Allowed for publicaton via The White House from Washington, DC. Cropped by User:Andrew Dalby

Expert Survey Experts’ answers were divided into six blocks. The full report can be found on the “Dor Moria” website, (https://dor-moriah.org.il/en) and the main findings of the study are presented here.

Trump’s Policy Duality:
- Key Points:
  - Musk’s meeting with Iranian representatives — a signal of a desire for a global deal.
  - Trump’s pro-Israel rhetoric should not be misleading.
  - Trump’s priority is America’s greatness, not Israel’s.
- Risks:
  - Until the inauguration, all Trump’s statements are just a show for future deals.
  - Potential negative scenarios from Trump’s opponents.
  - Unpredictability of the situation by the time of a possible inauguration.
Systemic Transformation of the U.S.:
- Transformation Characteristics:
  - Combination of “shock populism” and pragmatic modernization.
  - Creation of new opportunities and risks for the international system.
- Risks for Israel:
  - Danger of becoming a tool in Trump’s policy.
  - Risk of becoming a “sacred victim” if the transformation fails.
  - Riskiness of the simultaneous transformation of the world order and the “hegemon.”
Contradictions in Israeli Expectations:
- Main Conflict:
  - Messianic expectations vs fear of destroying democracy.
  - Trump as a trigger for deepening social divisions.
- Recommendation:
  - Need for Israel’s own development path.
  - Focus on the Abrahamic regional economic cluster.
  - Role of a technological hub between the West and the Global South.
Religious-Messianic Dimension:
- Contradictions:
  - Trump aims for a long-term peace deal.
  - Messianic rhetoric amplifies the religious aspect of the conflict.
    
    Elon Musk, founder of Space Exploration Technologies Corp.- SpaceX, joins President Donald J. Trump at a launch briefing in preparation for the launch of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket with the Crew Dragon vehicle Wednesday, May 27, 2020, at the Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Fla. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead).
    Allowed for publication via The White House from Washington, DC
  - Risks:
    - Turning the political conflict into a religious war.
    - Unification of Israel’s opponents on a religious basis.
    - Danger of confrontation with the Islamic world.
Future Scenarios for Israel:
- Overcoming Dichotomy:
  - Moving beyond the choice of “democracy-theocracy.”
  - Seeking hybrid development models.
- Prospects:
  - Need for reforms in Israel.
  - Importance of Israel’s successful reforms for Trump’s policy.
Israel Between the West and the Global South:
- Opportunities:
  - Role as a bridge between centers of power.
  - Multidimensional connections: technology, culture, religion.
- Challenges:
  - Need for contacts with BRICS and the Global South.
  - Issue of maintaining sovereignty in politics.
  - Balance between U.S. interests and self-development.

Key Conclusion of the Experts: Israel needs to form its own vision of the future, considering both internal contradictions and the global context, while maintaining sovereignty in decision-making, independent of external influences.

The specialists from the “Dor Moria” analytical center have prepared a questionnaire to conduct a mass sociological survey together with the “Geocartography” Center. The results will be published shortly.

So soon, we will find out how much “expectations from Trump” divide Israeli society.