The State of Israel at an existential crossroads

Since October 7^th, 2023, the State of Israel has fought – and very successfully so from a military point of view – a war on multiple fronts. The tragic and horrific events of October 7^th have traumatized the Israeli population, there is little doubt about it, and the trauma is not over, as the hostilities go on, and many hostages – dead or alive – are still being held by Hamas and related terrorist groups in the Gaza Strip.

Against its enemies, outside Israel, the State of Israel has scored multiple hits, with the backing, more particularly, but not only, of the USA. In the Gaza Strip, the Israeli armed forces (IDF) have managed to degrade considerably Hamas’s fighting capabilities and the leadership of the terror movement has been eliminated; in Lebanon, Hezbollah has been decapitated and much weakened politically and militarily; in Syria, the pro-Iranian regime that was supported by Hezbollah has collapsed; in Iraq, the Shia militias that fired missiles at Israel have gone quiet; in Iran, the regime has been shattered and its defence capabilities crippled, with its nuclear programme set back many years, from what we read; finally, the Houthis of Yemen do not seem able to threaten Israel in a meaningful way, for now at any rate.

In view of all of the above – and no one who is sympathetic to Israel will fail to be impressed by the remarkable results achieved by Israel’s military and intelligence apparatus and by the current government in this regard – one could say that, for now, the State of Israel is safer than it was prior to October 7^th. The human cost has been high: IDF soldiers are still being killed on a near-daily basis in the Gaza Strip. The scale of physical destruction and human suffering, in Gaza, is gigantic and poses questions as to the wisdom of continuing the military campaign against Hamas. The State of Israel, however, has also paid a heavy price in terms of its image in the West – in Europe, in the UK and in the USA more particularly. We all know that Israel lost the PR war against its adversaries a long time ago: there may be a case for reviewing Israel’s efforts in this respect, as Israel seems so incapable of putting across a clear and convincing message to public opinions outside Israel, in the West.

Anti-Semitism never went away in Europe, including England, or in North America, or in Australia: anti-Semites always find good reasons to hate Jews. They only like Jews when Jews are beaten, bloodied and begging for mercy: they do not like Jews when Jews stand up for their rights and their dignity. This is not new. The anti-Semitism of the Left, in a country such as Britain, is becoming a mere aspect and byproduct of the anti-Zionism of the very vocal pro-Palestinian lobby, and vice-versa. Besides, the anti-Zionist Left, in Europe, seems to enjoy the support of most Muslims who live in Europe, and vice-versa. Therefore, inevitably, Jews in the Diaspora are being blamed for what the State of Israel says and does in the Middle East: there is no doubt that anti-Semitism has flared up in Western countries in the wake of October 7^th. Many may view this as a paradox, given the fact that the chain of events leading to the Gaza campaign was triggered by an attack on Jews and on Israel by Hamas, and not the other way round: sympathy for Israel was short-lived in Western media and public opinion, but this was to be expected. The narrative according to which the State of Israel is a colonial entity underpinned by an intolerant and racist ideology – Zionism – and, in effect, an offshoot of American ‘imperialism’ in the region, is well-established, by now.

The problem, now, for Israel, is twofold: it is not military (we are reaching the end-game in this respect), but political (what comes next); it is not external (see above), but internal, i.e. it relates to the politics of Israel itself. And the problem, for Israel, is not purely a Jewish (or Jewish Israeli) problem: it incorporates a non-Jewish dimension, i.e. the Palestinian Question. To put it simply, Israel is at the crossroads and the choices that Israeli citizens and politicians make in the coming 6 to 18 months will shape the State of Israel and the region for the next 30 to 70 years and more. Israelis, in this respect, should be fully aware of what is at stake.

Let us be blunt: Israel needs a proper plan and practical solutions to secure its future as a democratic, secular State, or else it will become a Jewish version of those wretched Islamic and Arab countries that surround it – autocratic, corrupt and repressive, blighted by cronyism, with a strong, or very strong, religious element that can even come to dominate domestic politics completely (as is the case in hapless Iran).  No reasonable and constructive solution, long term, fostering peace, can be found so long as the populist and nationalistic Right – supported by the fanatical Far Right and delusional religious extremists (i.e. extreme right-wing Zionists) – control the political process and the government in Israel.

The problem posed by the large, fast-growing section of the Jewish population that fails to genuinely contribute to the economic development and wealth of the country, or to its defence – i.e. the Haredim, who represent c.15% at least of the overall population – needs to be addressed. As current events illustrate, the problem can only be tackled in a forceful and fair way by a secular, progressive government, not by a right-wing government supported by extremist religious parties close to the ultra-Orthodox community, who merely defend the extraordinary and absurd privileges enjoyed by this largely selfish, parasitic and blinkered minority. The Haredim are a millstone round the neck of the State of Israel – a reality that needs to be recognised and stated clearly – and one of its gravest challenges: it is unfeasible and unfair to have half of that community – the men – spending all their time studying religious texts and refusing to serve in the armed forces (as most Haredim do).

We constantly read and hear that c.70% of public opinion in Israel rejects Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister and his policies, and yet no one seems capable of doing anything against him, politically speaking. This is very odd. A related question is: how come the anti-Netanyahu parties – let us call them the moderates, the secular and the progressives, whether they are centre-right, centrist or left-wing – are totally incapable of forming a coalition to oust the Netanyahu government and his fanatical, thuggish Far Right backers? You would think that, in such an emergency, with an existential threat hanging over Israeli democracy, the anti-Netanyahu camp would find the strength and the nouse to actually do something about it. There is something seriously wrong about Israeli democracy if 70% of public opinion isn’t represented in the political process in a meaningful way, and the remaining 30% manages to dictate terms and lord it over the majority as if they were the only ones to decide the nation’s fate…

Isn’t the problem that, whatever the opinion polls say, there is, in fact, a majority of Israelis who do not want the Palestinians to be in control of the Gaza Strip ever again? In effect, they support the current government’s aims, if only passively, also in relation to the Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Isn’t the problem that Israeli public opinion is, objectively, far to the Right, and not that uncomfortable with the current government’s agenda?

The next issue one needs to dwell upon is the proverbial elephant in the room, namely the Palestinian question: whatever many Israelis may want and think, it is not going to go away. This is not about Hamas per se but goes way beyond the issue of Hamas and the future of the Gaza Strip: fair enough, Israelis want Hamas eliminated – even though, politically, militant Islamism will never be eradicated as an ideology, clearly… What we mean, here, is the long term. To put it simply: who, in Israel, today, believes in the 2-state solution? It would appear that, in Israel, very few people do, even on the Left. In fact, it could be argued that few, or very few, Palestinians ever believed in it either, despite the rhetoric emanating from the Palestinian Authority (PA): certainly, supporters of Hamas have wanted a one-state solution all along, i.e. a Muslim/Arab Palestinian State built upon the destruction of the Jewish State.

Still, the question needs to be asked: do left-wing and secular ‘progressives’ actually support a 2-state solution, in Israel? The 2-state solution is clearly the only way forward if one wants long-term peace in the region. Of course, it is a risky proposition and it may be disagreeable to a lot of Israelis, but history is full of unpalatable arrangements and morally repugnant compromises. For example, the reconstruction of post-Nazi Germany, after 1945, was heavily subsidized by the Americans, and yet a proper purge of the Nazi State apparatus was never carried out by the Allies, at any rate in the Western sector, i.e. the future West Germany.

The next question one needs to ask is: what do those Israelis who reject the 2-state solution actually want? Do they ever stop and think about it, or do they just park the issue somewhere on the hard drive of their brains, to be reviewed later? Do Israelis understand that the Palestinians have rights too? It does not seem obvious to outsiders that many Israelis actually understand that Palestinians may have rights of their own and legitimate aspirations. If the Palestinians are human beings like us – and, clearly, they are – and have aspirations for nationhood like us – and, clearly, they do – then, they have rights like us, like Jews, like anyone. It follows logically that Palestinian demands and expectations need to be taken into account, and it is, indeed, the only ethical position that one can adhere to: it cannot be denied. Incidentally, there is little doubt that the policy of occupation – more particularly in the West Bank – has had, over the years, a morally and ideologically corrosive effect on the Israeli body politic and collective psyche, normalizing violence and brutalizing citizens to an extreme degree: denying the Palestinians their legitimate rights is bad for the Palestinians, no doubt, but it is also bad for Israel and Israeli Jews – like a hidden cancer that eats away at the very heart of the Jewish State. In other words, even if they hate all Palestinians, Israelis should seek a political compromise with the more ‘moderate’ Palestinian leaders, insofar as they do exist, if only for their own sake, i.e. for the sake of Israel itself: this is not about emotions, but about Realpolitik.

So, what does Israel do about it? Is the plan to simply absorb the Gaza Strip, i.e. a form of ethnic cleansing? The current government would like to re-colonize the territory, quite clearly, and park the Palestinians in a small corner of the Strip near the Egyptian border, hoping that they will eventually leave for good. And what about the West Bank? Is the plan outright annexation into the State of Israel, with an Apartheid-style system to be put in place on a permanent basis, whereby the Palestinian citizens of Israel will be second-class citizens forever? One gets the distinct impression that many Israelis think this is the least bad ‘solution’. But it is clear this is no solution – at best, a short-to-medium term solution and a fraught one, which can only breed hatred and future conflict across the Middle East.

At this point, two questions should be at the heart of Israeli debates on the future of Israel: (1) How to form an anti-Netanyahu coalition in order to get rid of a government bent on ethnic cleansing in Gaza (and probably in the West Bank too) – a thuggish clique that many would regard as neo-Fascistic and authoritarian? (2) What are Israelis going to do about the Palestinian Question?

The 1^st question is talked about, but not in a constructive way. The centre and Left of Israeli politics seem full of outsized egos that are incapable of forging a common project based on a shared vision for the future of the State of Israel. The ‘reasonable’ and mainstream right-wing politicians would need to be on board with such a project anyway, given the weak state of the Left in Israel. Israeli politicians who oppose the current government and the Far Right ought to be ashamed of themselves that they are so blatantly incapable of coming up with a constructive and credible political alternative to the clique in power. As for the 2^nd question, it might as well not exist, if one looks at the media and the tone of the political debate in Israel.

Some will argue that no such ‘debate’ is possible during a war and Israel is at war. However, that is a cop-out. If you fight a war – the military side – without thinking about what comes next – the political side – you are just being stupid. During WWII, the Allies, together with the USSR, were constantly debating what would happen in Europe and Japan after the war, a long time before 1944-1945, as we know (cf. the Yalta accords, etc.). All the plans were in place long before the final collapse of the Nazis for the reconstruction of Europe and, more particularly, Germany. As per the quotation attributed to Carl von Clausewitz, the Prussian general, war is the continuation of politics by other means: war in itself, for the sake of war, makes no sense; war, as any sensible and intelligent person will admit, can only be a means to an end, and that end has to be political and diplomatic, sooner or later. One can kick the can down the road by continuing a war beyond its usefulness, to delay political solutions and compromises – but it is only a case of playing for time. Political issues, political ideas and political adversaries do not go away: they just mutate and re-appear further down the line, in one form or other.

Ultimately, the State of Israel needs to be good at political compromises and diplomatic exercises, not just at military achievements and intelligence coups of various kinds, as remarkable as they may be, and the political issues to be addressed are primarily internal, if one considers the Palestinian Question to be woven into the very fabric of Israeli society and politics – and it is. The State of Israel is its own worst enemy: its worst enemy, at this juncture, is not Hamas, or Hezbollah, or even Iran. The State of Israel needs to stop the nefarious drift we have witnessed towards authoritarianism, populism, ultra-nationalism, racism and religious fundamentalism, which has already turned Israel into a near-pariah state internationally, and this can only be done through a democratic and secular re-set. And the State of Israel needs to address the Palestinian Question, once and for all, taking into account the legitimate rights of the Palestinians – or else no genuine peace will ever be possible and the cycle of war, destruction, blood, terror and sorrow will never end.

Israel, as a coherent and functional polity, is on the edge of the abyss. It needs to choose between theocracy based on war or democracy aiming for peace. The choice is stark: to reinforce the democratic, secular model, and aim for long-term peace with its neighbours and with the Palestinians, or continue with its drift towards a form of semi-religious autocracy, built upon the oppression of the Palestinians and the denial of their rights. This is the choice facing the State of Israel right now. The 1^st option is that of peace, democracy and a return to sanity as well as fairness; the 2^nd option is that of war, violence and repression in all its forms, which will inevitably lead to the death of the State of Israel as we have known it and to a complete, utter betrayal of the values – Jewish values and universal values – that the Jewish State was originally built upon.