The Trump Brokered Agreement – What lies ahead?

All of those affected by the deal should be grateful to President Trump who successfully managed to accomplish what was thought to be by most governments and pundits as the impossible. Despite many remaining details yet to be finalized, the agreement involving the U.S. Egypt, Qatar and Turkey and termed the Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity brought about an immediate positive change for Hamas, Israel and beyond. He remarkably managed to pull a rabbit out of a hat. Although no side attained what it had hoped for, all parties benefited enough to enable them to breathe a sigh of relief. For Gazans, hostilities have now ceased, and they are returning to what remains of their homes and begin contemplating reconstruction.

For Palestinians in general, nearly 2,000 convicted Palestinian terrorists and detainees have been released. In addition to the opportunity to reunite with their families, these developments have helped restore some of their lost Palestinian and Arab pride.

For Israelis, the barbaric atrocities committed by Hamas, the ongoing fighting in Gaza, along with the continued captivity of hostages under inhumane conditions, had left many Israelis feeling chronically stunned, as if their lives have been on hold for over two years since that harrowing and horrendous October 7. While the remains of many dead hostages have yet to be released, the release of all the living hostages, some of the dead ones and the cessation of fighting, together offer a vital step toward beginning the long internal process of healing.

The pro Hamas participants, Qatar and Turkey, along with Egypt, Israel’s neighbor, can all benefit from the deal too.  First, as an aftermath of the IDF attacks on Iran, Qatar and Yemen, pro Hamas regimes have come to realize that they can not continue to support Hamas with impunity and that Israel has the capacity and willingness to go after all perpetrators involved in aggression against Israel including those who reside far away from Israel’s borders. Presuming that the agreement is implemented and Hamas lays down their arms, Israel will have no justification to attack these regimes, and as part of the agreement, the U.S. has assured the signed parties that it will prevent Israel from waging an attack on their soil. Second, while the Axis countries sympathize with Hamas, there is nevertheless concern that Islamic fundaments ideology that drives Hamas and its Axis allies including Iran, will get out of hand and threaten the stability of their own regimes. The recent deal will hold the spreading of this ideology somewhat at bay. Third, Egypt and Turkey may well participate in the Gaza reconstruction providing an important source of work and income for their countries. Egypt, bordering Israel has an additional reason to feel relief. Whatever their sympathies they hold to the plight of Gazans, their enormous fences on the border emphasize that they do not want to accept refugees from Gaza. And for good reason.  Lebanon and Jordan, who in the past generously accepted Palestinian refugees ended up having to deal with Palestinian insurrections on their lands. Egypt has already replaced a Muslim Brotherhood government with its ideology like that of Hamas, and the last thing that they want is an influx of Islamic fundamentalists into their country.

While all sides have benefited, there is notable lack of enthusiasm from the pro-Palestinian movement in Europe and North America. Unlike their massive protests against Israel during the fighting, there have been no similar celebrations or sighs of relief despite the ceasefire and improvements in Gazans’ well-being. One would expect those sympathetic to the Palestinian cause to be elated, but this ignores a key mistaken assumption, that their primary goal is to help Palestinians. In reality, many pro-Palestinian activists are driven by a desire to oppose Israel’s existence, resulting in little delight at the Gazans’ improved situation as long as Israel’s situation remains stable. Furthermore,  a normalization process in Gaza will deprive them of an excuse to protest against Israel.

Historically, the Palestinians and specifically Hamas have had many opportunities to pursue prosperity and regional peace rather than war.  Since 2005 they have had control over the running and economy of Gaza. The poverty in Gaza is not due to lack of money. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, aid to Palestinians totalled over $40 billion between 1994 and 2020. In addition, Qatar has given hundreds of millions of dollars to Hamas while Iran has been funding Hamas to the tune of 100 million dollars annually.

Many wonder if this deal can lead to lasting peace. The answer depends largely on the influence of Islamic fundamentalist ideology in the Arab world and beyond. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan have normalized relations with Israel through the Abraham accords. Saudi Arabia, and Egypt have taken steps to curb this dangerous ideology. Jordan, another neighbor of Israel, is supportive of the plight of Gazans, but not of Hamas. By signing the Trump agreement, Qatar and Turkey, who previously supported Hamas and the Islamic fundamentalist ideology, have demonstrated an ideological and strategic shift in policy, at least with regards to pursuing Israel’s destruction.

Unfortunately, Iran rejected Trump’s call for reconciliation. And now, only days after the agreement, we see that Hamas immediately violated the deal by refusing to release most of the bodies of the dead hostages and reasserting governing and military control in Gaza, thereby breaching the treaty. Their recent published video of Hamas militants shooting at tied up Gazans opposed to them, does not bode well for the Gaza future.

If Hamas persists in fighting for control of Gaza and pursuing their Islamic anti Western, anti Jewish ideology, the ceasefire cannot remain stable. As Trumps asserts, the plight of Palestinians and the Arab world do not have to be one of desperation. A more peaceful and prosperous Middle East is possible, but only if Islamic fundamentalism, the type that Hamas pursues, is curbed. Not only will Israel benefit from this. The facts demonstrate that the more influence Islamic fundamentalism has on the country, the poorer the country is and the more repressed the people are, especially their women and minorities. Even an oil rich country like Iran is poor economically because of the failings of this ideology. In contrast, Israeli Arabs, approximately 2 million, who almost all categorically reject this ideology, are better off financially despite Israel lacking the oil resources that Iran has and definitely have more rights and freedoms than most Arabs and Muslims in the Middle East.

It is unlikely that Hamas will voluntarily lay down their arms and turn over a new leaf. Furthermore, after 2 years of war which did not lead a a decisive victory, it seems unlikely that Israel can defeat Hamas. At most, Israel can minimize the military threat Hamas poses for them. The only effective way to bring about a change in Hamas policy depends primarily on the willingness of Qatar, Turkey and other regimes to withdraw their political, military, financial and media support. Withdrawal of support for Hams can make a difference. More to the point, in terms of the Gazans and reconstruction potential, it is unlikely that even sympathetic oil rich Arab countries will be willing to invest in a Gaza run by Hamas who intends to initiate a future renewed aggression against Israel, which will automatically bring about another destructive Israeli response.

On a more optimistic note, while it will take time, imagine the potential of a program sponsored by moderate Arab countries whose resources are directed exclusively towards making a demilitarized Gaza prosperous. This is the vision Trump is advocating for.

To use a computer metaphor, the Trump brokered agreement presents a re-start opportunity for Palestinian leadership and its supporters to no longer pursue Israel’s destruction and exportation of Islamic fundamentalism and instead pursue creating a free and prosperous Gaza along with regional ‘live and let’ live reconciliation.