The unbearable price Israel would pay for annexation

Upon learning of the US election results indicating Donald Trump would return to the White House, Bezalel Smotrich declared that 2025 would be the year of applying sovereignty to the West Bank. Smotrich’s jubilant forecast echoed a declaration by Naftali Bennett the last time Trump entered office, when the then-education minister and head of the Jewish Home Party spoke of “the dream…that Judea and Samaria will be part of sovereign Israel,” and called for immediate action to “dedicate ourselves completely to this.”

Indeed, since the launch of the Trump peace plan in January 2020, the settlement enterprise has reached new heights. Bennett’s tenure as prime minister and Smotrich’s role as Finance Minister and in the Defense Ministry have seen an unparalleled acceleration in the legitimization of illegal outposts. No fewer than 22 outposts were legalized between 2020-2024, while a staggering 79 new outposts were established, more than half of these during the war. (One of these outposts, established in 2021, was subsequently authorized in 2024.)

This systematic expansion of settlements, masked behind bureaucratic jargon, represents nothing less than a calculated transformation of the West Bank’s landscape. The numbers tell a story of opportunistic land grabbing, particularly intensified during a period of crisis when public attention was diverted elsewhere.

A comprehensive study conducted by Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS), comprising dozens of retired senior military officers, presents a disturbing picture of the potential consequences of annexing territories in the West Bank. This year-long study warns that even partial annexation could trigger a devastating chain reaction that would threaten Israel’s future as a Jewish and democratic state.

Proponents of annexation believe they can gradually incorporate territories while minimizing negative consequences. However, the study reveals this to be a dangerous illusion. Annexing Area C, or even parts of it, would likely lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, the termination of security coordination, and the IDF’s takeover of the entire West Bank. In such a scenario, Israel would be forced to establish military rule and assume responsibility for 2.6 million Palestinians.

The economic costs alone are staggering: $14.5 billion annually, including healthcare, education, and social security for Palestinian residents. Moreover, Israel’s economy would suffer significantly from decreased foreign investment, international sanctions, and GDP damage. This represents an unprecedented burden on Israel’s resources and taxpayers.

From a security perspective, the IDF would need to double its presence in the territory, severely compromising its readiness for war on other fronts. The vital security cooperation with Jordan and Egypt would be severely damaged, potentially destabilizing the Hashemite Kingdom, a cornerstone of regional stability.

In the international arena, Israel would face a severe diplomatic crisis. Even if the Trump administration supports such a move, European nations and Arab states would likely respond harshly with economic and diplomatic sanctions. Israel’s international legitimacy would be severely compromised, potentially reducing it to pariah state status, reminiscent of apartheid-era South Africa.

The central concern is that annexation would lead to a point of no return where Israel must choose between two impossible options: a binational state where it loses its Jewish majority or an apartheid regime where millions of Palestinians live under military rule without full civil rights.

This isn’t merely about territory; it’s about Israel’s soul and future. The dream of a democratic Jewish state, as envisioned by its founders, would be seriously compromised. The study recommends avoiding any annexation steps, whether creeping or legislative, and instead promoting a policy of separation from the Palestinians while maintaining IDF security control until a diplomatic solution is reached.

Rather than succumbing to illusions of a “historic opportunity,” decision-makers must seriously consider the heavy price Israel might pay for such a move. The current political discourse in Israel increasingly normalizes annexation ideas, making it crucial for the Israeli public to understand their destructive implications.

The study’s findings challenge the prevalent right-wing narrative that annexation can be managed with minimal consequences. Instead, it suggests that any form of annexation would trigger a domino effect leading to outcomes that would fundamentally alter Israel’s character and international standing.

As American Jews and supporters of Israel grapple with these issues, it’s crucial to understand that opposing annexation isn’t about being “anti-Israel” – quite the contrary. It’s about preserving Israel’s character as a Jewish and democratic state, ensuring its security, and maintaining its standing in the international community.

The time has come for honest dialogue about these challenges. While the status quo in the West Bank is problematic, unilateral annexation would be catastrophic. Israel’s friends, particularly in the United States, must help it avoid this self-destructive path and instead work toward a solution that ensures both Israel’s security and its democratic character.

The illusion that territories can be annexed without a heavy price is dangerous, and the cost of such a mistake could be irreversible. As Israel stands at this crossroads, the choice it makes will determine not just its future, but the nature of Jewish sovereignty in our time.