Tit for Tat is not a Strategy
Things happen so fast around here, that by the time this reaches publication, events could have already changed.
Following the missile strike from Iran into Israel, the whole world now waits for Israel’s response-bombing of Iran. The U.S. is demanding – no pleading, that Israel does not aim and damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, or its oil wells, or its gas fields. There is an election coming up and this might spoil it for the Biden – Harris democratic campaign. It could wreak havoc on energy prices in the U.S. and around the world.
Hezbollah has been hurt badly: we see scenes on our screens of endless bombing of the Dachia in Beirut, yet the deadly attacks from Hezbollah into Israel continue unabated, even after the mass exodus of Southern Lebanon civilians and the demise of Nasrallah. And in addition, we are losing troops in Southern Lebanon daily.
We know that with respect to Gaza, there is a deal on the table for an end to the war, which would include an exchange of prisoners for hostages and the possible entry of a non-Hamas Palestinian entity such as the Palestinian Authority to replace the Hamas regime and govern Gaza. However this has not come to fruition despite endless avenues of negotiation.
Rather than playing this absurd game of strikes between Israel and Iran on a tit for tat basis, no one seems to see that this is an opportunity to bury the conflict for now. Israel needs to put a threat on the table, with a sweet as a reward for all concerned: With respect to the American request – no, the pleading not to damage the oil fields or the nuclear facilities in Iran, Israel leadership needs to make a radical U-turn and offer the following: nothing is ruled out – not the nuclear facilities, not the oil fields, not the center of Tehran. The offer (read threat) is as follows: Israel will not attack Iran with missiles at all. This game of tit for tat should now be over. We can then all breathe a sigh of relief. However, Iran must ensure that Hezbollah retreat entirely to the Litani in Lebanon and Hamas move forward on ending the war in Gaza with the deal that has been floated now for several weeks: a new regime in Gaza, an end to the conflict and an agreed exchange of prisoners for hostages. In reversing the current momentum, opportunities arise.
So in fact with this on the table, we can all breathe a sigh of relief: what promises to be an escalating crisis with the damaging of Iran’s life source – oil, the effect on the world economy and the U.S. election, now goes away. The Iranian – Israel missile strikes are in effect ended – completely. If Iran does not accept this offer, the entire picture must then change. Meaning that despite U.S. pleadings, Israel must let the powers that be know that a strike on any target in Iran is viable: nuclear, gas or oil. In this way the tit for tat is over and done with. Iran gets away with its last strike on Israel without an Israeli response, but with a full obligation to twist the arms of Hezbollah, Hamas, Yemen and Iraq into a complete end to this conflict. The hostages come home and a complex yet feasible takeover of power comes to Gaza.
We have all been sucked so far down this tunnel, that tunnel-vision now precludes creative thinking: here above is just one idea. There are no doubt others. Threats can at times be turned into opportunities. Let’s hope leadership thinks creatively.
The War Must End