‘Today’s Newspapers Wrap Tomorrow’s Fish’

There is an old journalistic saying: “Today’s newspapers wrap tomorrow’s fish.” In the Middle East, analysis can become outdated even faster.

Only days ago, I argued that Iran was trying to carefully manage escalation to avoid a wider war. The events of the past 48 hours demonstrate that even with those intentions, things can change quickly,

Iranian attacks have killed at least two American personnel in Jordan and targeted commercial shipping and critical infrastructure across the region, including evidently in Saudi Arabia. The United States, meanwhile, appears to have struck Iranian infrastructure as well. The conflict is expanding from the limited maritime focus we saw last week.  Both sides are moving further up the escalation ladder.

Both sides may still be trying to act strategically. However, the margin between coercion and uncontrolled escalation is rapidly disappearing.

American fatalities create powerful pressure for retaliation. Attacks on electricity, water, and energy infrastructure threaten civilian life and regional stability.

The greatest danger is not necessarily that either side wants an unlimited war. It is that both believe they need to take one more step to dominate the escalatory cycle, and that they can do so without triggering a larger war.

Washington will be compelled to respond firmly to attacks on its personnel while making clear that Jordan and its Gulf partners will not be left to absorb Iranian retaliation alone.  Iran will feel compelled to respond to strikes on its territory by punishing Arab neighbors who host U.S. forces.

A few days ago, it looked like both sides were trying to keep escalation bounded. Today, that possibility appears far less likely than before.