Trump Vs. Biden, A Key Moment in Future Geopolitics

A year ago, many doubted that former president Donald Trump could run for president again, given his legal problems stemming from the alleged attempt to thwart a peaceful power transfer. Yet, despite efforts to disqualify him from running for president in Maine, Colorado, and Illinois, the US Supreme Court recently ruled that only Congress can bar a candidate from insurrection. And once the results from Super Tuesday came in, it became clear that the United States is heading for a Trump versus Biden rematch.

Current president Joe Biden easily dealt with self-help author Marianne Williamson and Congressman Dean Phillips, rated as long shots on the Democratic side. Hence, we are set for a 2020 election repeat. With that on the horizon, the world is wondering what will happen if Trump comes to power again and what moves Biden will pull in his new four years in the Oval Office.

As sports betting keeps growing, allowed in close to forty US states, thriving wagering regions like Virginia offer a unique perspective on the intersection of politics and entertainment, accepting bets on the upcoming election.

Currently, aggregated odds state that Donald Trump has +106 odds of becoming president again, compared to Biden’s +215. Who 47% of Americans believe is too old to be effective as president (New York Times/Siena College poll).

China & Russia

Trump and Biden’s stances on Russia and China are divergent views of how US foreign policy should look. Without question, Trump’s tactic on relation management can be characterized by a conflated/broad view toward what many see as America’s fiercest enemies. His administration (in general) believed Russia and China posed similar challenges, emphasizing unilateralist stances (especially toward China). That much was evident by the US putting restrictions on Chinese tech companies and launching (2018) an ongoing trade war with what now is the world’s second-largest economy.

During his term, Trump and his team focused on a mercantilist policy (with bilateral negotiations), showing a somewhat alignment of interests with Russia. That display was on hand while Trump’s cabinet often overlooked its nuanced disruptive actions toward America. Trump’s sweeping strategy escalated tensions with both sides, which pundits think will continue if he returns to office.

Joe Biden, in contrast, has shown a deeper understanding of handling these world powers. He better distinguishes their varied interests/aims, acknowledging the US’ need to maintain a competitive edge over China in all sectors and highlighting the vital nature of managing Russian security threats. Attempts to smooth over relations with China have gone so far under Biden that his administration even extended a hand for cooperation in various fields, with climate change ranking high as one of them.

However, it must be said that Biden, too, has set restrictions on American entities investing in Chinese tech companies out of fear that such infusions of capital may bolster China’s military advancements. And that this may endanger US national security. He also has made no bones about the danger Russia brings in the realms of regional destabilization through cyber-tech and the need to combat the Russians here.

So, with Trump in power, the risk of relations between Russia and China falling apart gets further heightened, as he still shows no signs of easing up on his confrontational and aggressive position towards them. Cold War-like scenarios can have dramatic economic and political implications around the globe.

On Israel

Trump’s presidency featured sizable support for Israel’s far-right government agenda. Even though he has recently said little about Gaza, he has not voiced his clear opinion on tackling the current conflict. While acting president, he pursued policies that favored Israel’s interests, largely refraining from pressuring Israel to exercise restraint in their actions against Hamas. He drafted a peace plan without input from Palestinians and moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, something that got massively applauded by Israel’s right-wing leadership. Naturally, they also raised concerns among the international community, with many seeing this embassy move as an attempt to satisfy Trump’s massive campaign backer, now-deceased casino mogul Sheldon Adelson.

President Biden has had a centrist stance on Israel. He has maintained US support for the Jewish state. Still, he has done so while acknowledging Palestinian rights. Nevertheless, Biden also has continued some Trump policies on Israel. These include providing substantial military aid and restoring elements of bipartisan consensus in US-Israel relations. He has also sought to strike a conflict balance, advocating for more protection for Palestinian civilians. However, he and Trump have reaffirmed the country’s right to defend itself and will probably do so.

The US Commitment to Multilateralism

Over the past seven decades, the US has been the chief proponent of multilateralism. The US’ long-standing belief on this matter is that collective action can achieve prosperity worldwide. Trump disrupted that idea, expressing much skepticism towards multilateral institutions/agreements. His problems with the Paris Accords, the WHO, NATO, and the Iran nuclear deal were subjected to massive press.

Biden, on the other hand, has restored US engagement with multilateral institutions/deals. Under his watch, the US rejoined the Paris Accords and various international agreements. The common belief is that a Trump return could further undermine this reaffirmed state and lead to international efforts to address pressing issues falling apart.