Trump, Zelensky and the Future of Israel

By supporting Ukraine in its war against Russian aggression, the United States is not merely upholding its commitments to democracy and sovereignty—it is shaping the future of global security, including in the Middle East. The relationship between American assistance to Ukraine and the strategic stability of Israel and the broader region is more direct than it might seem. The negotiations between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky will be crucial not only for Kyiv but also for Jerusalem, Riyadh, and Tehran.

The post-World War II global order has been largely maintained by US military and diplomatic might. Washington’s ability to deter aggression has ensured that conflicts—whether in Europe, the Middle East, or Asia—do not spiral into broader catastrophes. However, Trump’s foreign policy record raises concerns. His “America First” rhetoric often translated into transactional relationships with allies, rather than steadfast commitments. If Trump negotiates with Zelensky to reduce or withdraw American support for Ukraine, this will send an unmistakable message to Israel and other US allies: American security guarantees are conditional and unreliable.

Israel has long depended on US military aid, intelligence cooperation, and diplomatic backing to maintain its security in a volatile region. If Trump demonstrates that Washington is willing to abandon Ukraine, what assurance does Israel have that a future US administration will not similarly abandon it in a moment of crisis? If Ukraine is sacrificed to Russian aggression under the pretense of an American-brokered “peace,” Iran will take notice.

A weakened Ukraine means a strengthened Russia, and a strengthened Russia inevitably benefits Iran. Moscow has provided Tehran with advanced military technology, including drones that have been tested in Ukraine and could soon threaten Israel. If Trump pressures Ukraine into a settlement that favors Russian interests, this will empower Vladimir Putin to double down on his partnerships in the Middle East. With an emboldened Iran and a distracted or disengaged United States, Israel will find itself in an increasingly precarious position.

Ukraine’s resilience is more than a European issue—it is a global test of whether democratic nations can withstand authoritarian expansionism. Israel, which has fought multiple wars for its survival, understands this principle better than most. The IDF’s doctrine is built on deterrence and the belief that weakness invites aggression. If Ukraine collapses or is forced into an unfavorable deal, it will embolden not only Russia but every adversary of the US and its allies, from Beijing to Tehran.

Moreover, the weapons and military support provided to Ukraine are not merely an expense for Washington; they are an investment in a stronger, more prepared Western alliance. Every piece of military aid to Ukraine is a deterrent against future aggression—whether in Eastern Europe, the South China Sea, or the Persian Gulf.

If Trump and Zelensky were to negotiate a settlement that undermines Ukraine’s sovereignty, it would not just be a tragedy for Kyiv—it would be a disaster for Israel and the Middle East. Every US ally would be left wondering whether America’s commitments are still ironclad or if they are subject to the whims of shifting political calculations.

Israel’s security has always been linked to the credibility of American power. A weakened, uncertain US posture in Europe will echo in the Middle East, emboldening adversaries and jeopardizing decades of strategic stability. The decisions made in Washington about Ukraine are not just about Eastern Europe—they are about the global balance of power. And for Israel, that balance is a matter of survival.