Trump’s Memo Of Misunderstanding

What began as a powerful attack on Iran has led to a more defiant regime claiming victory, and a nightmare for the US and Israel. How did it happen?

While Donald Trump flaunts his success in reaching an agreement with Iran, the self-described master of the art of the deal appears to be the loser in what could be his most important transaction as president – a deal that weakens America’s image and makes Israel dangerously vulnerable.

Ironically, the Memo of Understanding (MOU) between the US and Iran should actually be known as the Memo of Misunderstanding, the tragic result of Trump’s lack of recognition of the serious gap between Washington and Jerusalem in terms of the goals and motivation for the ill-fated war with Iran that was launched almost four months ago.

For Israel, the war was seen as a unique opportunity to finally and decisively defeat Iran militarily and politically, eliminating the existential nuclear cloud that has been hanging over the Jewish state since the Iranian jihadist revolution 47 years ago, and opening a path for regime change from within the country’s oppressed population. It was a tall order, but Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has been warning the free world of the dangers of a nuclear Iran for more than three decades, recognized that Trump was the only president in the foreseeable future willing to join Israel in such a bold military act.

For Trump, though, taking on Iran was less about saving Israel from the threat of extinction than about his larger desire to dominate countries that could provide financial and/or natural resources and solidify the global image of an all-powerful America – and its president. Ignoring the lessons of America’s failure in its attempt to bring about regime change in Iraq through war, Trump no doubt was thinking of his recent success in ousting the leader of oil-rich Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, in a swift and successful raid that brought him to the US to stand trial. The president has said he would personally control the proceeds from the sales of Venezuelan oil to make sure they are being used to “benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” though his history prompts suspicion that he and/or his family may benefit as well.

Based on intuition rather than the advice of top military experts, Trump decided that attacking Tehran, in partnership with Israel, would strike a decisive blow on the regime’s political and military leaders and lead to a civilian revolution. Several weeks before the war began, as hundreds of thousands of Iranians took to the street to protest economic chaos, the president posted: “IRANIAN PATRIOTS. KEEP PROTESTING. TAKE OVER ITS INSTITUTIONS…HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”

But the help was short-lived. The president ignored or did not comprehend the level of ideological zealotry of the Iranian regime that rightly calls itself the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has spent 47 years and hundreds of billions of dollars in pursuit of becoming a nuclear power and destroying the Jewish state – and ultimately the US, as it spreads Islamism to the Western world. That is why it brutally killed as many as 30,000 of its own citizen protesters this past winter, why it endured major American and Israel attacks on its political and military leadership, its soldiers and civilians, and suffered a shattered economy as the price it is willing to pay for its revolutionary goals. And there is no reason to believe those goals and that commitment have been changed by the war. To the contrary, the regime is now run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, more extreme than the ayatollahs, and more convinced of its power after staving off the forces of the US and Israel.

It’s hard to believe that Netanyahu, the shrewdest of politicians, did not fully appreciate the transactional personality of Trump, who stopped the war to prevent a Republican lashing at the polls, and went from outspoken ally and partner of Israel and its prime minister, to spouting his frustration with them through public recriminations and foul language.

Trump could call his fighter planes and naval vessels home and move on; Netanyahu knows that Israel has no place to go. Though reluctant to defy Trump’s orders, he seems determined to keep IDF troops in southern Lebanon to protect Israel’s northern communities by continuing to counter Hezbollah’s terrorist actions and maintain Israel’s deterrence over its sworn enemies.

A Weaker Agreement Than The JCPOA

How does the current Memo of Understanding stack up against the Obama administration’s controversial 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) agreement with Iran to limit Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanction relief? Trump has called the JCPOA “horrible, one-sided” and the worst deal ever. During his first term, he tore it up. But it was better than the one he signed this past week.

Consider: While many key issues remain unresolved, Trump’s Memo of Understanding calls for the US to develop a plan and fund Iran with at least $300 billion (no doubt to be used to help rebuild its nuclear program and continue funding its proxies – Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis).

The current deal puts off discussions on Iran’s stockpile of uranium and nuclear aims for future negotiations that, based on past experience, will drag on and prove unresolved. In addition, the MOU makes no mention of limiting Iran’s ballistic program, and most troubling for Israel’s immediate concerns, insists that the US-Iran agreement can only go forward if Israel and Hezbollah cease fighting. Already mainstream media is placing the onus on Israel when the two combatants strike at each other, focusing on the damage done to Lebanon and its citizens while generally ignoring the fact that Hezbollah terrorists have been firing on Israeli communities in the north for many years.

In the end, the US is making these concessions in return for Iran opening the Strait of Hormuz, which was open when the war started.

The Iranian regime understands that Trump was desperate for a cease-fire because he fears that the unpopular war and global economic crisis could lead to a stinging Democratic victory in November. And despite his countless threats to wreak havoc on Iran, the regime is well aware that Trump wouldn’t dare re-start the war before the midterm elections, if at all.

Trump’s defenders have little to say other than, given his unpredictability, he could change his mind about the agreement and its specifics. Not very comforting.

Adding insult to injury, Trump in recent days has called Netanyahu “crazy,” complained about Israel fighting back against Hezbollah, and said Iran can have missiles to defend itself. Against who? one wonders. Against the US and Israel?

JD Vance, while negotiating in Switzerland, presumably on behalf of Israel, has rebuked Jerusalem in the strongest terms, warning its government not to defy the US, its only ally in the world.

Not surprisingly, Israelis are feeling left out, frustrated and frightened about being left with the prospect of an endless war with Iran and its proxies.

After all of the bloodshed, grief and trauma of the last 32 months, it is Israel’s enemies, though severely damaged militarily, that are feeling triumphant in having stood up to powerful armies and defiant in their determination to be rid the region of the world’s only Jewish state. Iran’s leaders have leverage over the US in negotiations. Hamas controls the population of Gaza and refuses to disarm as it recruits young men to replace the thousands of fighters killed. And Hezbollah is protected by the MOU and intent on continuing its goal of destroying Israel.

A poll this week found that 92 percent of Israelis feel Israel lost the war – a staggering and deeply disturbing statistic that speaks volumes about the country’s mood today.

One could argue that Trump and Netanyahu deserve each other in this moment of embarrassment for both of them. They share the trait of holding others accountable rather than accepting responsibility for serious mistakes, including going into wars without clear objectives and realistic outcomes. If there is one silver lining for defenders of democracy to the current debacle, it is that both men may pay the price for their actions at the polls this fall. If Democrats win control of Congress, its leaders may be able to stave off Trump’s ongoing efforts to weaken, if not undo, Constitutional law. And if a more centrist coalition can form a government in Israel, it may ease the divisiveness tearing the society apart and begin to re-establish a positive image of Israel in America and much of the world.

If only such changes could have taken place without the terrible bloodshed, trauma and pain that began on October 7.