Avi Nofech
"democracy and free trade are the only way to peace"

Two States or One State, This is the Question

Israel’s choice

For Israel the choice is between the settlement movement who want the settlements to be part of Israel and between Israelis who want a Jewish Israel separate from the Palestinians.

It is not possible to have both. Just look at the map of the West Bank! Israeli settlements are now all over Judea and Samaria and any separation will not leave enough place for an independent Palestine.

Palestinians have already decided

Palestinian decision is to disband the Palestinian Authority if annexation goes through, leaving Israel as the sole entity ruling all of the West Bank. Israel will be claiming that the remaining part is “Palestine”. But this “Palestine” will not be recognized as a real country by even one nation except Israel.

Stage set for the ICC investigation

As Ms. Bachelet, the Head of the UN Human Rights Council already said, there is a “two tier system of laws in the same territory”, one law for Israeli citizens in Judea and Samaria/West Bank, and another law for Palestinian Arabs who are not Israeli citizens.

Such a two tier system is exactly what the Rome Statute of 2002 defines as “crime of apartheid”.

Israel is not a party to the Rome Statute but Palestine is. All Western democracies except the US are also parties to the Rome Statute.

If the International Criminal Court rules that the situation is indeed apartheid, these nations which include all of Europe will have to follow through with the next step, which is well known. This step is compulsory economic sanctions.

One Man One Vote

There were two historical examples of apartheid, Rhodesia and South Africa. In both cases sanctions remained in force until transition to majority rule, meaning equal civil rights including the right to vote for all people living in that territory.

Can Israel resist the sanctions?

Israel imports almost all the materials used by industry, except natural gas. There is no aluminium ore, no iron ore, no oil, and almost none of the elements in the periodic table to be found on Israel’s small territory.

The only country in the world that has all the minerals needed on its territory is Russia. This is why Russia ignores the economic sanctions now.

The one state outcome

After being squeezed by sanctions, there would be no choice but to agree to equal civil rights. This is what Rhodesia and South Africa did, not because they wanted to but because they did not have a choice. After caving in, the whites found themselves a minority in mostly black countries.

For Israel, the outcome would be a country with a slight Arab majority.

Religious nationalists do not understand this

It is hopeless to try to explain to them that against the whole world Israel will lose. Just read their comments on “Times of Israel” about G-d and the prophecy taking over.

Only after the gas stations wil be closed, because there is no more gasoline, will they understand.

Can independent Jewish Israel be saved?

Only if Israelis who are aware of the danger will find the strength to confront the settlement movement is there any chance for Jewish Israel separate from Palestine.

Israelis ignored the spread of settlements in Judea and Samaria thinking that maybe it is not about them, it is only about settlers and the Arabs.

The risk for them is that when they understand it may be too late.

Israel needs to support independent Palestine to survive

Only peace agreement with Palestine can save the Jewish independence. Israel should not be quarreling with Abbas and Shtayyeh, but instead welcome their offer for demilitarised Palestine and work on further improvements: democracy, free trade agreement, allowing people to live safely on the other side of the border.

Otherwise, it would be welcome to Palestine. Ahlan Wa Sahlan Fi Filastin!

If you want this, annex.

About the Author
I went to graduate school at the Hebrew University and since then worked as a lecturer in Canada and in Israel.
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