It has been three years since writer Patrick O Brien visited Ukraine, now preparing to return, he asks, what has changed and are both sides ready for Peace?
When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his soldiers into Ukraine, his aim was to sweep into the capital, Kyiv, overthrow its pro-Western government and return Ukraine to Russia’s sphere of influence. Putin failed but, more than three years on, a fifth of Ukrainian territory is in Russian hands.
US President Donald Trump has continually being pushing for a peace deal. However, previous optimism over an agreement has not led to any progress. His recent meeting with President Putin seems to have failed to meet the US leaders demands. It didn’t surprise me or any experienced journalist that there wasn’t a concrete result from the Putin Trump summit. First, the two parties, Russia and Ukraine, weren’t asking to come to the peace table, neither one of them is ready yet, apparently. If the Trump administration’s account of the talks is correct, Putin seems to have pared back his demands a tiny bit. He is insisting on Ukrainian withdrawal from two regions instead of four. But there is no sign that he is moving away from his demands about limits on the size of the Ukrainian military.
We all know that Russia has the upper hand in what has become a brutal war of attrition. Russian forces have been making slow, costly yet inexorable progress, pushing the outmanned and outgunned Ukrainian defenders onto the backfoot. Meanwhile, relentless missile and drone attacks have taken a high toll on Ukrainian energy and civilian infrastructure.
Western countries are facing domestic political and economic pressures and distractions. Putin calculates that this, coupled with uncertainty over Trump’s approach to the US’s European allies, will lead the West to tire of supporting Kyiv and to welcome a deal. To date, Putin has shown no real interest in a negotiated settlement except on his own terms. These terms would effectively amount to capitulation by Kyiv and are by no means in the West’s interests.
In the meantime Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated yesterday he was open to holding an election in his country, if the war with Russia comes to an end and it was safe to do so. Zelenskiy made the comments at a press briefing in the Oval Office ahead of a high-stakes meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump today
Malta’s Foreign Affairs Minister Ian Borg Malta has offered itself as a mediator for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine previously. Foreign Affairs Minister Ian Borg has said that EU should remain steadfast in its unwavering support for Ukraine on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion. “Now, more than ever, the international community must remain united in our efforts for peace, in Ukraine, as we uphold its sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Borg said. He expressed Malta’s continued support to all efforts for an end to hostilities in Ukraine, stating that the EU and US share a common interest and responsibility in securing a comprehensive, just, and lasting peace. “While we welcome all efforts to achieve a cessation of hostilities, we must make it clear that all players, including Ukraine and the EU, must be involved in any negotiations affecting the security of our continent. To be perceived as a credible actor in these talks, we need to come forward with a pragmatic strategy together with Ukraine. We must be clear in our strategy, firm in our demands, and unwavering in our continued support for Ukraine.”
Ultimately, no peace will be perfect. Trade-offs will have to be made. While a perfectly just peace may not be possible, an approximation of justice might be. Bounded by what can reasonably be achieved and consistent with the principles such a peace would be more just, durable, and perfect than a frozen conflict or continued hostilities.
Patrick J O Brien is an acclaimed journalist and Director of Exante who has been working in the media for almost 25 years. Patrick who hails from Ireland is based in Malta and a contributor to some of the world’s leading financial and political magazines. Recently he returned from Ukraine where he was reporting at ground level on the escalation of war and spent time documenting the work of the Red Cross and many human right organisations
