What Hezbollah actually wants

Hezbollah would love to carry out an attack on Israel on October seventh, ten times larger in scale than what Hamas did. They have the capability to send three thousand missiles a day. However, they have not escalated their attacks to their full potential because either Iran is preventing them from doing so or it is not in their interest internally in Lebanon at the moment.

Iran may be preventing Hezbollah from opening a wider front with Israel because they may want to have another front in Syria to attack Israel from. They may also be waiting for Hezbollah to acquire a nuclear weapon, which would serve as a deterrent against foreign attacks, similar to North Korea and Russia. Iran’s decision to restrain Hezbollah serves strategic purposes for Iran.

Lebanon is currently facing a serious financial crisis, with many Lebanese unable to afford daily expenses. Many Lebanese have emigrated from Lebanon, with the Lebanese diaspora larger than the current population of Lebanon. A war with Israel turning Beirut into Gaza City would not be politically advantageous for them to win an election or gain popularity with people outside the Shia Muslim community.

Since October eighth, Hezbollah has been firing anti-tank missiles and rockets into Israel. They have forced the evacuation of northern Israel’s citizens, destroyed hundreds of homes on the northern Israeli border, and turned northern Israel into a closed military zone. They have been killing and injuring Israeli soldiers and civilians in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza.

Their main objective is to continue a war of attrition against Israel in order to reduce Israel’s focus on Gaza. Nasrallah has repeatedly stated that they will cease their attacks on Israel if Israel stops its war against Hamas and if Hamas remains in power. In their last attack on Israel, they fired over 300 missiles, none of which reached their target successfully. The attack was intended as revenge for the targeted killing of their leader, Fuad Shakur.

In a recent speech, Nasrallah commented that the attack was in retaliation for Shakur’s death and that they would wait to see if the punishment they inflicted was sufficient. He also stated that they would continue to regularly attack Israel until a ceasefire is reached. Therefore, his ultimate goal is to show solidarity with the Palestinians and engage in a war of attrition with Israel rather than opening another full front against them.