What Next after the 12-day Iran-Israel war?

How can we make sense of the 12-day war between Israel and Iran culminating in the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities by the U.S? What can we expect will happen now?

Since taking power in 1978, the Islamic Revolution Guard Core (IRGC) has governed Iran. The goal of this radical Islamic ideology is establishing a Muslim Shia theocratic state, exporting Iran’s version of political and religious Islam globally including the U.S. which they view as corrupt and imperialist. In addition, they call for Israel’s destruction. This ideological stance is not merely rhetorical. The IRGC has spent billions arming Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, all aiming to destroy Israel. These regimes are termed Iranian proxies. Iran has also developed an extensive nuclear infrastructure, nearing nuclear bomb capabilities, and furthermore possessed a large arsenal of ballistic missiles. In all these regimes, there is a clear correlation between the level of aggression against Israel and the extent of repression of their own citizens, particularly concerning human rights for women in all of the above tyrannical regimes.

No matter how strongly and repeatedly the Islamic radicals and for that matter, the pro-Palestinian camp justifies their calls for Israel’s destruction as a means to establish a Palestinian state, these declarations do not reflect reality. It is a spurious argument.  Historically, the entire Arab world opposed the 1948 partition plan because of their outright opposition to the establishment of Israel alongside a Palestinian state. During the period between 1948-1967 when Egypt controlled Gaza and the Kingdom of Jordan ruled over the West Bank, there were no calls to establish a Palestinian state on those lands; only calls for Israel’s destruction. Even after Israel won the 6-day war of 1967 which it did not initiate, and expressed willingness to negotiate a territorial compromise, the entire Arab world declared in Khartoum: “No negotiation, no recognition and no peace.”  This underscores that the conflict has long been driven by opposition to Israel’s existence rather than a genuine desire for Palestinian independence.

Since Oct 2023, Hamas has waged war against Israel, massacring 1,200 people and in the process committing horrific atrocities, firing hundreds of missiles on Israeli cities and taking 251 hostages, some dead and some alive.  They were joined directly by Hezbollah based in Lebanon, and Yemen, with Iran supplying weapons and financial support. Hamas, while not defeated, has lost most of their commanders; their extensive tunnel infrastructure has mostly been dismantled, and their enormous weapon arsenal depleted. Hezbollah, by agreement concluded November 27, 2024, has withdrawn its forces from the Israeli border, and has mostly stopped its aggression against Israel. With regards to Syria, it had served as a conduit for transferring weapons to Hezbollah, and until the Assad regime fell in Dec 2024, Iran’s influence in Syria remained significant; but no more. Yemen has had their military ports destroyed with damage estimated at over $1 billion. Regrettably, the fact that all of Iran’s proxy regimes had been dismantled and disabled did not bring Iran to change their destructive ideology.

Along with their threats, with Iran’s burgeoning ballistic arsenal and their heavily invested nuclear armament program, Israel decided that the time had come to disarm the Iranian threat to Israel’s destruction. Until the Israeli attack, the IRGC mistakenly assumed that because of the combined reasons of a distance of over 2,000 km from Israel, the Iranian threat of a massive retaliatory missile barrage on Isarel and Iran’s air defence system, that Iran could continue to activate their proxies with casualties only to their proxies and impunity for themselves.  Why the proxies agreed to be targets of the Israeli response with no threat to Iran is beyond me.

Israel’s well-planned and implemented sophisticated attack demonstrated how wrong they were. Within a short 12-day span, Israel was able to eliminate much of the upper echelon of the military IRGC along with many of the key scientists participating in building a nuclear bomb. The successful Israeli attacks were followed by American planes wreaking havoc on Iranian nuclear facilities including the Fordow site built 90 meters underground.  Iran no longer has working military nuclear facilities. Its arsenal of missiles and launchers has been mostly disabled, and its air defense system destroyed.

Israel and the US agreed to stop their assaults on Iran, if Iran agreed to stop firing ballistic missiles on Israeli cities.

What should Iran do?  What can it do?

If Iran were to shift its focus from attacking Israel directly or indirectly, to prioritizing the welfare of its people, this change could benefit Iran and indeed, the entire Middle East. The Iranian government has ruled despotically, ruthlessly suppressing opposition. Despite its vast oil reserves, Iran’s economy is struggling. Most Iranians are believed to have no animosity toward Israel and simply want to live their lives. With the balance of power having shifted dramatically, perhaps Iranians can exploit this opportune time to pressure the regime to change course. Moderate Middle Eastern countries, especially those harmed by Iranian policies, could do the same. Western European countries along with moderate Muslims the world over, have an opportunity now to play a productive role in encouraging Iran to abandon their destructive role in favor of a positive approach. In parallel, if Hamas, which no longer can benefit from Iranian support will finally likewise prioritize the well being of their people over the damage they can cause to Israel and do so by releasing the hostages, and declaring that they are no longer at war with Israel, then dramatic progress can finally be made in improving the Palestinian lot in Gaza.

On the other hand, if Iran attempts to rebuild its military and nuclear infrastructure, thereby threatening Israel, Israel will likely respond with renewed attacks, as it has when Hezbollah tried to rearm. President Trump supports this policy, and the U.S. may even participate in such an operation. Similarly, as long as Hamas insists on posing a threat to Israel, it is hard to imagine that the conditions for the Gaza population will improve.  The ball is in the court of  the Iranian people and the Islamic radicals.