What Should American Jews Expect from the 47th President?

We will need to be prepared for a profound state of cultural disruption and structural displacement! For some, the next four years will represent a political tsunami, while for others, the President’s policies and actions will affirm their expectations.

 This is the age of Trump, not only was the 45^th President named by Time Magazine as their “Man of the Year” but our next president firmly believes he has been given a clear mandate to lead.

Should we anticipate a tenure of service defined as angry and retaliatory or can we anticipate a more focused and planned approach to governance, built around an assertive nationalistic agenda, committed to delivering on what candidate Trump has outlined? As we noted four years ago, we are likely to see traditional cultural norms uprooted and political traditions discarded. In almost every area of our society, the imprint of his second term will be evident.

Jewish Responses to Donald Trump:

For America’s Jews, all of this will have a profound importance. Just as we saw in his first term, there will be a significant backlash against the policies and actions of this new administration by various Jewish constituencies (JOT: Jews Opposed to Trump).

Correspondingly, the 47^th President will receive the endorsement and strong support from other sectors of this community (JTS: Jewish Trump Supporters). A third group has emerged (JDT: Jews Disengaged with Trump); these folks may have actually decided not even to participate in the election on November 5, and if they did, may have voted 3^rd Party. They view themselves as being disconnected and disillusioned at this moment with American politics, while at the same time disheartened and removed from Israel, due to their opposition to the conduct of the Gaza war and to the current Israeli government, with many of them uncomfortable with the idea of Zionism.

Reflective of their political support and political alignment with his ideas and goals, a significant number of Jews will play key roles in this new administration.

 Where Do We Begin?

This tenure of service will be very much about legacy as Trump will seek to leave his mark on American governmental institutions and on our political culture. As anticipated, the 47^th President’s domestic and foreign policy positions will no doubt create further divisions among American Jewry. Trump’s domestic positions and policies on such matters as immigration, gun control, abortion, and gender identity must be seen in conflict with the views and values of liberal American Jews along with various mainstream Jewish organizations, while his Middle Eastern policies will likely be embraced by his many Jewish supporters, while drawing opposition from others.

In terms of governing, the 47^th President will deliver, as he has promised, in connection with many of the following areas:

• Seeking to Re-Make the Federal Government
• Redefining the Role and Place of Government within this Society, Reframing Policy in Such Areas as Education, Immigration and Borders, Taxes, Social Security, and Military
• Introducing Tariffs Directed Against Various Trading Partners and State Enemies
• Removing the US from Various International Obligations and Arrangements, especially in Connection with Climate Change
• Challenging our NATO Allies to Increase their Support.
• Retaliating against his Political Opponents

Beyond Trump: The Return of the Alt Right

Over the next four years, we are likely to see a corresponding expansion within the public square of far-right political players, framing their case against Jews and others whom they view as problematic. Taking their cue from the President, as they did during his first term, we should anticipate a more public presence of the Alt Right. We must recall the August 2017 “Unite the Right” rally in Charlottesville and the October 2018 attack on the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh, where we would see the manifestations of extremist hate.

 Retribution:

The president is likely to continue to view his opponents as open game, as he goes after those members of the Biden Administration, government bureaucrats, State and Local officials, and Congressional Democratic legislators whom he deems as his political enemies. This does not even begin to identify those individuals that he views as problematic within the press and beyond. No doubt, some of those to be targeted involve Jewish Americans.

The Political Ideas That are Likely to Dominate:

 Trump’s appeal to national conservatism will define much of this administration’s policies, especially in foreign policy considerations, national culture and identity, and social behaviors and beliefs.

More broadly, as Christian Nationalist ideas are imported into this administration, we are likely to see a further downgrading of the wall of separation between church and state. Even as the Department of Education may be eliminated or radically altered, the imprint of a Christian ideology will be present in such areas as textbooks, school religious policies, holiday observances, etc.

The Presidency: Jews and Israel

Further, as he reminded us in the 2024 campaign, he threatened the Jewish community, warning that should it fail to support him, there would be potential consequences.

Whatever this may have meant or might imply for the future, this president will be seen as a strong supporter of Israel, while simultaneously pushing back against threats to American Jews here, especially on America’s campuses, especially in connection with anti-Israel rhetoric and actions.

At the outset, President-elect Trump will be seeking a rapid conclusion to the Gaza conflict, while also giving Israel a broader degree of regional protection from Iranian threats. This is however only a starting point for what possibly might be created, leading to a redesigned Middle East map.

We will likely see the continuation of the “special relationship” that defined Benjamin Netanyahu’s connection with Donald Trump, as we witnessed during 2016-2020. Moving forward, is it possible to project that the Jewish State, and more directly, its right of center government will achieve from this president significant concessions that are likely to fundamentally alter the Middle East geo-political map?  Will Jerusalem receive American support in connection with new territorial arrangements both involving Gaza and the West Bank?

As part of the Trump Administration’s engagement with Israel, we might see a proposal allowing for the annexation into Israel of the four key settlement communities bordering Jerusalem, Modi’in Illit, Ma’ale Adumim, Beitar Illit and Ariel. Each of these cities, except for Ariel (18,000 inhabitants), have populations in excess of 35,000 residents.

Further, the Jewish State will likely garner US support at the UN and elsewhere regarding security considerations involving Lebanon that the Israelis may insist as a basis for its longer-term concerns in connection with its northern neighbor.

Regarding Iran, we will likely observe a concerted effort both in Washington and in Jerusalem to execute a plan to end or at least limit the Iranian nuclear threat and to promote efforts to secure regime change in Tehran.

 As part of his first term focus (2020) on creating the “Abraham Accords” where Israel was able to open diplomatic relations with Morocco, the UAE, Bahrain, and the Sudan, President Trump will be interested in expanding this diplomatic initiative to incorporate other Arab regimes, but more directly, Saudi Arabia.

In order for the US President to achieve the outcomes that Washington may be seeking in the Middle East, the Israeli Prime Minister may need to be prepared to make certain concessions to the Palestinians. The Saudi’s may be open to a US-Saudi defense pact, placing further military pressure on Tehran as its primary target. No doubt, this will be a difficult diplomatic task to achieve in Washington, as the United States Senate would be required approve such an agreement with a 2/3rds majority. For this type of arrangement to even be considered by the Saudis, Jerusalem may be required to provide guarantees to the Palestinians.

Further, there will be pressure from the Arab World and possibly from Washington for Israel to demonstrate a serious commitment in rebuilding Gaza, possibly in partnership with Arab governments.

What Can We Expect?

Part One:  The Jewish Democratic Response

I am finding many Jewish Democrats still are in a daze, whether they did not expect what took place on November 5^th or can’t get their heads around a Second Trump term, there is a type of paralysis in play. With little leverage in either chamber of the Congress and no standing within the Supreme Court, there is slowly emerging a new and troubling reality that without power, the Democrats may be unable to contain the Trump agenda, either on the domestic or foreign front.

But there is a clear and defining challenge for Jewish Democrats?

• Rebuilding the Democratic Party will be on the docket!
• Isolating the Squad and other far left forces will mean a battle over control and direction.
• Reclaiming Israel as a Democratic Party cause will also be particularly challenging.
• Redefining American Jewish “liberalism” will be a core priority for our community but who should take on this task?
• Re-energizing Jewish activism must be however the first course of business, but how do we excite and engage a community that has just experienced a devastating loss?

Part Two: The Jewish Response to Donald Trump’s Presidency

What is evident, there will be no misreading of how this President will be defined by America’s Jews. The collective opposition (JOT) binds together his problematic personality and his disruptive performance as they uniformly reject his leadership (JDT). For his Jewish friends and supporters (JTS), he personifies greatness, as they reflect on his earlier achievements, especially in connection with Israel, and celebrate his return to the presidency.One should anticipate a complex and potentially uneven presidency, where elements of this President’s actions will be embraced, while other outcomes will be rejected or at best received with mixed reactions and broad concern.