What should we do about Bibi?
One of the most common discussions I have with friends and acquaintances in Israel and in the US starts with the question “Will Bibi win the next election?” Sometimes, the conversations start with the claim that “Bibi will be the next Prime Minister!” This claim is based on a cynical view of the current state of Israeli politics which has seen Netanyahu serve as Prime Minister for 14 of the past 16 years. All this while, Netanyahu has masterfully juggled coalitions of religious and rightwing extremists parties, made court appearances in his corruption trial, avoided taking any responsibility for the worst security failure in the history of the State of Israel which occurred on his watch, taken full credit for the military successes of the past 2 years – some deserved and some not so much, and spun the recent ceasefire agreement, which freed the hostages, forced on him by President Trump, as Netanyahu’s initiative. I think we can all agree that Benjamin Netanyahu is a political genius, but he is not invincible, he has been defeated in the 1999, 2006, and 2021 Israeli elections.
My answer, however, to the claim that “Bibi will be the next Prime Minister” is not based on historical precedent but on the fact that not a single poll, of which I am aware, taken since October 7th, has shown that Netanyahu’s current coalition could form a government without adding at least one party currently in the opposition. Over the past two years, some polls have shown that the opposition, including new parties which are not in the current Knesset, could form a government, even without the Arab parties. The most recent polls, however, have shown that neither block, the coalition, nor the opposition, could form a government without at least the support of some of the Arab parties, if not their outright participation in the government.
It is also crucial to recall that in Israel, we do not elect a Prime Minister. We vote for parties, none of whom, in the history of the State of Israel have received a majority of votes enabling them to form a government without building a coalition with other parties. Netanyahu cannot be voted on as Prime Minister. Even if the Likud receives the largest number of mandates (members of the Knesset), in the next election, Netanyahu must work his magic to create a new coalition and as things stand now, he will have his work cut out for him. So, my response to the claim that Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister is that it is unlikely.
I am not claiming, however, that the probability that Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next Prime Minister is zero. There are many things that could happen which would increase this probability. For example, one of the many center-right parties could betray their constituents and jump on Netanyahu’s bandwagon to help him form a government together with the ultra-orthodox parties and the extreme right-wing parties. Since these centrist parties have mostly formed in opposition to Netanyahu’s leadership or to the other coalition parties’ stranglehold on the government, it is hard to envision this happening but we are dealing with politicians so we should not be surprised by the betrayal of constituents. A much more likely scenario, which will guarantee Netanyahu’s return to power, is a lack of unity among these centrist parties. If Yair, Benny, Naftali, Avigdor, Yoav, and Gadi, cannot put the country ahead of their egos, we could be heading for a repeat of the disastrous 2021 election in which leftist and Arab votes were lost to parties which did not pass the threshold. While in the upcoming election, one party, the Democrats, will represent the left, avoiding the catastrophe of 2021, the Arab parties have not learned their lesson and have not managed to consolidate into at least 2 parties which can pass the 3.25% threshold. Also worrying are the discussions among young leftists who want to establish new leftist parties including Arab Jewish coalitions. After the hard work to unite the left, the establishment of new leftist parties would only serve to weaken the left and increase Netanyahu’s chances of forming the next government.
If the Knesset does not approve a budget by March 31st, 2025, the Knesset will be dissolved automatically and there will be elections within 3 months, meaning July 2026. If the budget passes, elections will be held in Israel on October 27th. Therefore, sometime between July and October of next year, we Israeli citizens will go to the polls.
So, what should we Israeli citizens do to ensure that Netanyahu and his corrupt coalition are not able to form a new government?
- Join a political party now. I recommend joining the Democrats but if you don’t love Yair Golan, or your politics are more centrist, there are plenty of other parties to choose from. Be careful to join a party which either clearly passes the threshold or at least is committed to joining another party to ensure votes are not lost. Party membership enables engagement and helps to show that the opposition parties are vibrant and competitive in the upcoming elections.
- Make your voice heard. Once you become a member, let the leadership of the party know your opinion. A unified block can take power away from the current coalition. Fighting among the opposition parties only serves to strengthen the coalition. The most important thing for the opposition to do, leading up to the election, is to rally around one candidate for PM. The fact that for years, right wing and religious parties have acknowledged Benjamin Netanyahu as the unquestionable leader of the right-wing/religious block has given that block an edge. While I do not align with his politics, I believe that Naftali Bennet is the right leader for the center/left block to rally around.
- VOTE! Of course, the most important thing you can do is to vote on election day. If you have gotten all the way through this blog, my guess is that you don’t need to be convinced to vote, but we all know someone who is disaffected, cynical, or doesn’t think that voting makes a difference. Convincing a relative, neighbor, or friend, who is not planning on voting to change their plans and vote in the Israeli elections, may seem like a lot of trouble for little gain, but democracy is only effective when many people act on their right to vote. It is also important to vote for a party which supports democracy. I do not think it is that important which party you vote for. Just be sure that the party is not in danger of falling below the percentage threshold and is within the block of parties who will not support the re-election of the corrupt Likud led government.
- Encourage Israelis living abroad to come home to vote. This may be a bit more challenging than convincing your neighbor in Israel to vote but the potential is great. Approximately one million Israelis live abroad and if, as in Israel, 60% are of voting age, that is close to 20 mandates. You can be sure that the ultra-orthodox parties are on it. How about the rest of us?
It is easy to complain about the corruption, lack of transparency, degradation of democratic principles, and lack of shame, the current government embodies. Sometime between July and October 2026, Israeli citizens will have the opportunity to do something about it. One thing is clear, this time around, doing nothing is not an option.
