What’s going on here?

There have been a lot of confusing incidents and conflicting reports, statements and declarations being made recently by President Trump, Prime Minister Netanyahu, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, Lebanese President Aoun, Hezbollah Secretary General Qassem and others. These statements include conditions, threats and warnings.  Some of the statements even include some interesting, colorful non-diplomatic language.

Recently, rockets, missiles and drones have been fired from Iran onto US and other ships in the Hormuz Straights, from US ships and aircraft toward Iran, Lebanon to Israel, Israel to Lebanon, Iran to Israel, Israel to Iran. Yemen to Israel – none from Israel to Yemen yet.

We hear conflicting statements that range from “we are far from an agreement”, Iran will never sign an agreement, Israel is preventing an agreement, Hezbollah is preventing an agreement, Iran is preventing an agreement to a deal is imminent, a 60-day agreement will be signed soon, a peace deal will be signed in the next two weeks to, ultimately, the US will declare a massive total victory within two weeks.

President Trump reiterates that Iran will not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. Yet Iran insists that it will never give up that option.

We hear that the US is parking aircraft refuelers in Israel until the end of 2027, which is a year and a half from now. We hear that the US has built up its weapons supplies in the Mideast. We heard of downscaling US forces in Europe, but we haven’t heard of any downscaling of the US military in the Middle East.

Iran downed a US Apache Helicopter, maybe by mistake (really?). The US’s limited response seemed very similar to the way Israel responded to Iran’s missile attack. President Trump coerced Israel to cease its response because no one was killed. The Apache helicopter crew was retrieved; no one was killed. So why the limited response at all?

It seems that Iran is provoking and the US is trying to put out flames and to rely on “diplomacy” which seems not to be getting anywhere. Plus, as we all know, based on previous experience, any signed agreement with Iran is worthless.

What is this all about? What is going on?

As an interested observer, I am aware of two major events that are scheduled to take place in the United States over the next month:

• FIFA World Cup Coverage (Mondial) which begins on June 12th and ends on July 20^th.
• Celebrations for the 250^th Anniversary of the Independence of the United States on July 4th

These two events are major festive events. They promise to bring great happiness, cheerfulness and joy to proud Americans. Which is good for the wellbeing, self-esteem, satisfaction, of the average American. This is of course good for business and the economy as well.

I believe the President when he stresses that Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon. But my understanding is that President Trump will do whatever he can to prevent a war or conflict that would interfere with these major upcoming events. Signing the 60-day agreement will delay any need for immediate action. Signing a “peace” deal that will inevitably be breached by Iran just delays any action.

So I don’t expect any action until at least after Independence Day, July 4^th. Maybe not even until after the FIFA World Cup ends on July 20^th.