When All Else Fails, Shoot: Understanding Israel’s Desperation
Israel’s ‘preemptive’ strike on Iran has been justified by politicians in both Israel and the U.S. as necessary in order to deal with the threat of Iran’s nuclear arms program. Even if such propaganda turns out to be accurate (just ask Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard what she thinks), the timing, however, tells a different story entirely, and must be understood in a diplomatic context.
Back in 2023, months before the war in Gaza began, hegemonic American interests colluded to prohibit Israel’s intended overture to China, which had just successfully negotiated a ceasefire and normalization deal between Iran (and the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia. Instead of seizing the opportunity to pursue greater diplomatic leverage on Iran through the Chinese, Israel was ‘encouraged’ by the Americans to enter into doomed negotiations for a parallel deal with Saudi Arabia, this time brokered by the U.S. This proved to be a serious diplomatic misstep that not only angered the Palestinians, but also exposed Israel as weak in the face of American pressures. While the Saudis enjoyed their expanded, multilateral arrangement and the end of their war with Yemen, Israel had been successfully stifled and further weakened by American overreach.
Over the course of the subsequent conflict in Gaza, Israel’s diplomatic prospects have continued to diminish due to its ever-increasing dependence on American military and political support amidst its deepening isolation in global politics. However, not only has Israel’s reputation been damaged by the war, America’s public image, too, has suffered greatly. It is perceived by many as an opportunistic enabler of Israeli war crimes, an accusation that has contributed to growing diplomatic tensions even among Western governments. Internally, too, the U.S. has experienced much popular backlash, adding to an already long list of grievances and unprecedented levels of discontent. Many Americans are embarrassed by their country’s role in the ongoing tensions and fear the long-term consequences of its corrupt policies. The latest Israeli sorties against Iran have only magnified these underlying tensions and further compromised American interests globally.
Sensing its precarious diplomatic position, Israel became desperate in its decision-making. Just this past month, the UK sanctioned two of its ranking government ministers, and France had been seriously considering recognizing a Palestinian state at the UN conference that was planned for this week in New York, but was conveniently postponed due to Israel’s military actions. From an Israeli point of view, it had already lost the support of the majority of Western governments. However, instead of engaging in reconciliatory diplomatic talks with its longstanding and powerful Western allies, it chose to write them off and double down on American supremacy, confident in Mr. Trump’s ability to control his European counterparts (all of whom maintain normalized relations with Iran) and rally them behind Israel. Even if he is successful, such maneuvering will surely come at a cost.
Mr. Trump has already diverted vast military resources to the region and devoted stocks of advanced interceptor missiles to defending Israelis from Iranian reprisals. Any further involvement would risk alienating not only his country’s allies, but also influential elements of his own political base back at home, who have been consistently lobbying for isolationist, non-interventionist policies. In contrast to the war in Gaza, the U.S. stands to bear the brunt of the fallout from the current operation. It almost appears as if Israel is exacting a form of ‘revenge’ on the U.S. for its heavy-handed interference in the months before October 7th, 2023, or at least attempting to prove its autonomy to the world following the embarrassment of the last few years.
While America’s loyalty to Israel is commendable, the rash actions of Israel’s government may well have pushed such relations towards a dangerous breaking point. I don’t doubt that the U.S. will continue to support Israel at the current time, however I do fear that the legacy of this war will lead to increased suspicion towards Israelis, and a clear divergence of the interests of both countries. In peaceful times, I would have welcomed the disentanglement of Israeli and American interests, but I fear the repercussions of such a development while, at the same time, Israel has done nothing to repair its relations with its European neighbors. Once the dust settles, France, the UK, and the rest of Europe, will not have forgotten the Palestinians. Israel may have postponed its inevitable confrontation with Europe, but it will eventually have to reckon with its largest trading partner.
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“Violence is the last refuge of the incompetent.”
Isaac Asimov