Whoever Wins on October 27 Inherits the Same Six Problems

Israel’s election is being presented and fought as a referendum on one man, his policies, actions, leadership, and history especially with respect to October 7. It is also fought as a personality contest between Netanyahu, Eisenkot, Bennet, Gantz and Lapid.  The Israeli voter tends to be swayed as much by personality as by political ideology, with trust in security ideology taking a prime position. The current averaged polls put the current Netanyahu bloc at 53 seats, the opposition at 53, and the Arab parties at 14, with 61 needed for a majority.

While the rhetoric and party platforms are understandable, the parties differ primarily across a spectrum of right-wing nationalist, centrist, and left-wing platforms, divided largely by their positions on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the role of religion in state affairs, and governance. 

Some details appear on the parties’ websites, but they generally avoid specifics in their campaign rhetoric. In general, they miss the point: the next government will inherit an agenda set months, if not years, before the campaign began. Neither bloc has offered coordinated convincing answers to the issues detailed below. While most of the parties have slogans or platforms to deal with the issues some are contradictory and some just ignore the pressing questions.

These issues are separately and together capable of breaking any future coalition:

1. The Haredi draft. A coalition that depends on Haredi parties cannot lean on them to pass conscription legislation, and stands the risk of the Haredi parties collapsing a coalition if any binding conscription legislation is passed. On the other hand, a coalition without the Haredim will, at best have a slim majority. Any conscription-related legislation or efforts will have the High Court waiting to strike it down if it cannot guarantee full equality for conscription. Pretense before the elections, by opposition parties, that they will conscript every Israeli over the age of 18, with very limited exceptions, is a shallow promise without real possibility of passing.
2. Judicial “reform”. That fight is paused and not over, October 7 and the ensuing three years of warfare simply paused the process. Yashar has pledged to repeal the law changing the composition of the Judicial Selection Committee and to oppose any override clause letting the Knesset re-enact laws the court strikes down. The other side is candid about what a return to power would mean. Coalition chairman Ofir Katz has said that if Likud forms the next government, judicial reform will return to the Knesset agenda. Justice Minister Yariv Levin posits that with roughly two-thirds of Supreme Court seats set to open up in the next term, he wouldn’t need legislation at all. That last point deserves a lot of attention. The overhaul may no longer need a bill. It may only need time and patience. A voter who thinks this issue has passed should pay careful attention to the party platforms.
3. Gaza and regional security. It is almost a year since the Trump imposed Gaza ceasefire and the creation of the Board of Peace. Nothing concrete has been achieved on the ground. The current impasse of Israel demanding Hamas disarm before withdrawing and the Hamas response of demanding Israel withdraw before they disarm is unlikely to be resolved soon. Currently, Israel occupies or controls 70% of the Gaza Strip while Hamas controls the rest. A frozen, indefinite occupation is not a strategy or solution. Every party should answer the question “Who governs Gaza when the IDF leaves and under what conditions?” Israel continues to occupy South Lebanon. The conflicts with Syria, Iran, Yemen/Houthis, Hamas, and Hezbollah have all brought impressive tactical achievements, but have not produced any strategic or long-lasting resolutions. All the candidates and parties should be asked in detail as to their intentions to produce long-term strategic resolutions to all these areas.

4. The Palestinian conflict. The Palestinian conflict and the occupation in the West Bank cannot be managed as inifinitum without a solution. The situation continues to deteriorate from day to day and deaths of Israelis and Palestinians continue. Apart from the Democrats talking vaguely about a two-state solution without any concrete proposals. Other Jewish parties either support annexation of all or part of the territory or ignore the issue. This is a problem that only deteriorates further over time and is vital to the security, economy, international image, and general well-being of the state.
5. The economy. To all intents and purposes, Israel’s economy has not been materially harmed by the last three years of warfare. However, the psychological and economic cost of the wars falls on ordinary Israelis. Israel’s defense budget has more than doubled since October 2023. Public debt has climbed from roughly 60% of GDP before the war to more than 69% now. War costs, by one recent tally, have passed 400 billion shekels — over 17% of GDP — with reservist mobilization alone consuming a third of the direct cost. A reservist in his twenties now costs the state 39,000 shekels a month just in salary; one in his thirties, 68,000. VAT has risen to 18%. Tax exemptions have been stripped away. Finance Ministry economists warn that education, infrastructure, and health care will absorb the funding difference for years to come. The added costs of defense spending will further impact education and healthcare leading to added incentives for more secular elite emigration. The added emigration of high-earning secular elites will further act as a drag on the economy for years to come. Every party and bloc running in the election needs to have a comprehensive economic plan to deal with all these issues.
6. The state of education. Israel’s economy is highly dependent on the supply of new maths, physics and computer science graduates from its universities. The standard of STEM education in Israeli high schools has fallen sharply over the past few years. So too does the emigration of the academics who teach these subjects adversely affect both the quantity and quality of future graduates. The state of the school system has long been an open sore in Israeli society with four separate, unequal streams providing different levels of funding and education to each of the four sectors: Haredi, secular, Arab, and national religious. The parties need to address the issue and provide proposals before the elections.

All of the above major issues, individually and together, are grounds for dissension between the parties, inside the parties, between the blocs, and are potential landmines waiting to destroy any new coalition. Netanyahu’s coalition depends on partners whose demands Netanyahu cannot meet. The opposition consists of a group of differing parties held together by a shared opposition to Netanyahu, not shared answers, policies, or beliefs.

 Current electioneering is focused on leaders and their personalities, not on policy issues or party platforms. Voters have a right to know how the parties propose dealing with the above issues. While who will win and which coalition will be formed is an important question, more important is what each party leader proposes to do with a draft for all, judicial change, Gaza, the Palestinians, the economy, and education, and what compromises they are prepared to make to achieve their goals. 

The problems are there, the elections will only decide who has to deal with them.