Worse Than We Thought

We hear so much these days about fake news. As a historian, I can tell you that fake news is based upon fake history. Real news is based upon real history, the history that politicians won’t take the time to tell you, although it may be hidden in plain sight. They assume that most of the public will be useful idiots and simply fall in line while they avoid the hard decisions that might jeopardize their cushy positions.  It is then the job of the media as the Fifth Estate to raise these questions for that public, especially as Israel moves into its next election.

The present situation along our borders is difficult.  In addition to the continuing standoff with Iran in Syria, we now have an organized attempt by their Hamas lackeys to break our borders that has entered its sixth week.

I know that Bibi has Case 2000, 4000, (whatever) to attend to first, second, third, etc.  Busy with butt covering, he is certainly too busy to ask for a national unity government.  Instead, he has chosen to coddle draft dodgers in the Knesset and their avreichim so he can win the next election.  No wonder our enemies laugh?  They are licking at the chops as they see a badly drawn cartoon unfolding in our capitol where my neighbors celebrate Lag B’Omer everyday by burning garbage in Kikar Shabbat.  If someone can’t control their capitol, what kind of an opponent are they?

When I was a kid, the US lost in Vietnam. Why? This was because Ho Chi Minh saw an opportunity.  Nixon’s demise and his continuing self focus on protecting himself the law gave the North Vietnamese communists the initiative and paved the way for the fall of Saigon.  More than a decade of US blood and treasure, including some 50,000 dead US servicemen, all to pay for protecting Tricky Dick’s tuchas with President Ford’s pardon.  Delaying justice simply costs more in the end.

Certainly, the Mossad has the right to hold its head high.  They have delayed the Iranian nuclear program.  However, there are a few things that Bibi didn’t tell you in his briefing on Iran’s nukes.  This old intelligence officer will try to fill in the blanks for you.  However, we must go back in time.

Most people don’t know that the Shah had his own nuclear program.  Had it not been for the Iranian Revolution, some 20 nuclear power plants would have been online.  The Iranians would have had a bomb much earlier had a bunch of incompetent mullahs not ordered the existing ones offline.  Mullah heads and turbans were stuck in a place with a methane rich atmosphere.  Their present attempts to domestically produce nukes are partially for the Iranian public’s consumption in order to cover the stupidity of the mullahs.

The present Iranian program is not like the old Iraqi program that Israel laid waste to at Osirak in 1981.  That was a Cadillac turnkey program that Saddam was using to simply buy his nuke program in complete form from the French (with some German assistance in missile technology).  The Iranians have had to go elsewhere (North Korea?) to get help and do it on the cheap.  The Syrian nuke plant destroyed by the IAF in Operation Outside the Box had been installed under the Mossad’s nose, probably by North Korean technicians.  The Iraq and Syria situations have prompted the Iranians to disperse their nuclear assets.

In my opinion, Bibi has a dirty secret that he isn’t telling you:  Iran already has the bomb.  I will support this intelligence opinion logically based upon proven military principles of strategy.

From everything I have read, Israel lacks the air or ground assets to take out a widely dispersed nuclear grid.  This leaves the Doomsday Option as the only option Israel has left.  Israel’s Navy has reportedly deployed nuclear weapons to submarines. Israel has some five German-built Dolphin-class submarines, which experts believe are equipped with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. This ensures a second-strike capability (unless we decide to preemptively strike). As long as one submarine is on patrol, some portion of Israel’s nuclear deterrent remains invulnerable to a nuclear first strike, guaranteeing a nuclear counterattack capability if we are massively hit.  Not too comforting.  I guess I should learn to love bomb shelters.

Reports have been circulating for most of the last decade that Israel maintains at least 1 submarine on permanent patrol in the Persian Gulf.  The first thing you are taught in officer’s training is the concept of economy of force.  You engage any potential enemy with the smallest potential force possible.  Considering the small number of boats, maintenance schedules and other factors, this is a huge force commitment, one that is predicated upon the definitive existence of Iranian nukes.   Since Iran’s nuclear force is likely inferior in its ability to deliver the weapons due to aircraft and missile problems, this will force them to consider alternative strategies short of nuclear war to hit us, such as working through intermediaries such as Hamas and Hizbullah.  Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) can’t protect us from everything.

Mr. Netanyahu, in the US Army, we had a saying-”lead, follow, or get the hell out of the way!”  Find the door please.  Ehud Olmert can show you a comfortable bunk in a jail cell.  Let a national unity government craft a winning strategy we can all buy.

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About the Author
Akiva ben Avraham is a former community college professor, US Army intelligence analyst and officer, and a caregiver.
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