13 Days to Elections: What is the Risk of Postponement?  

We are now thirteen days away from elections here in Israel and the apprehension among the electorate continues that our Prime Minister, given his obvious concern about polls showing him losing power as a result of the election, might consider doing something drastic to cause the postponement of the vote.

For the record, there is a similar fear percolating in the US as well given the polls there showing that the Republicans will probably lose control of the US House of Representatives and conceivably the US Senate as well.

A report in today’s Jerusalem Post indicates that: “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to US President Donald Trump last week to discuss the possibility of a renewed military campaign against Iran before Knesset elections are held at the end of October, according to an Axios report on Tuesday.”

According to the report the potential joint US-Israel operation could target Iran’s nuclear and military sites. Senior US officials told Axios that Netanyahu cited alleged Iranian efforts to rebuild nuclear capacity as the reason for launching new strikes.

A White House official denied that the two leaders had talked about resuming the war and asserted that Trump has said that the US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections.

Later today the prime minister is reported to have said he hoped the election here would proceed as scheduled but warned that Israel’s enemies could attempt attacks or rocket fire to create an impression of Israeli vulnerability. Unsaid, but implied, was the threat that should such action occur, it might be cause for postponement of the elections scheduled for October 27^th.

However, can the Prime Minster of Israel actually postpone elections?  Under Israeli law, the Prime Minister does not have the unilateral authority to postpone national Knesset elections.

Israel’s Basic Law governing national elections states: “The Knesset, national elections must take place no later than four years after the previous election.”  To legally alter or extend the term of a government or postpone a national election beyond its statutory deadline requires a formal law passed by a supermajority or specific majority in the Knesset plenum (with historical precedent or major legislative backing, such as an 80-member vote threshold for certain basic law extensions).

Further, postponing elections is only possible under exceptional emergency circumstances by passing primary legislation through the Knesset. For example, the 1973 Knesset elections were delayed by two months because of the Yom Kippur War, but via legislative action, not by prime-ministerial decree.

Would our current Prime Minister take us unilaterally into war with Iran, for example, in order to create conditions similar to 1973 and then ask the Knesset to postpone the elections? None of us here want to believe that he would do so but…..what if he was goaded into such action by President Trump? That is actually a more likely possibility.

Why? War with Iran is immensely unpopular in the US with the President’s overall approval ratings hovering around 31%, a historically low number. The last thing Trump would want to do is bring the US back into armed conflict in an unpopular war just weeks before mid-term elections where his party is already predicted to take a shellacking at the polls.

While it is not logical that Trump would do that, logic has not exactly been the best word to describe his governing style.

Late last week he made a deal with Russia, for example, for them to supply over 4.8 million metric tons of diesel fuel to the US and global markets over the coming months to combat record-high domestic US fuel prices. The deal provides Russia with economic relief ostensibly to help bring down prices at the pump for a commodity sorely needed by both farmers and truckers. Remember, Russia is the country that has been waging a 4-year illegal land-grab war against Ukraine, is threatening Europe with war as well, and is an ally of the US’ worst enemies (Iran, China, North Korea).  So much for dependency on Trump’s logic.

Clearly the last thing any of us should be doing is looking at the logic of a situation when we are witnessing totally illogical actions every single day on the part of world leaders. Those are the same people who also just happen to have the capability of pushing one button that could start a chain reaction to blow us all to smithereens.

There are so many actions of both Trump and Netanyahu that defy logic, that logic itself has been dumbed down far enough these days as to be meaningless.

Today, for example, Netanyahu once again defended his proposal to establish a national inquiry commission that he will appoint, with equal representation for coalition and opposition members to inspect and comment on the security debacle that occurred on October 7th. He argued that a State Commission of Inquiry appointed through the existing judicial framework would be rejected by many of his own supporters as being biased against him. Yet that is the law and the law is not in place so that the political leadership can decide when, how and where it should be applied. Doing otherwise would be tantamount to having the “fox guarding the hen house” as it were.

Former US Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis held that the idea of honoring the law is captured in two core principles: the law must earn respect to command it, and government must model lawful behavior to preserve or defend it. That concept is as important today as it was 100 years ago when he wrote it. Successful government only happens when the basic pillars of democracy are upheld.  Definitely a lesson for the political leadership to keep in mind in this election season.