2024 Jewish Voter Guide: Some Ten Core Reflections

As the 2024 election moves into high gear with key primaries, party conventions and fall debates all awaiting us, there are some indicators that may help to define “the Jewish vote.” Elsewhere on my Times of Israel Blog[1], I have already addressed some of the core background issues pertinent to the role that Jews are likely to play in this forthcoming election cycle. Indeed, my 2021 edited volume on Donald Trump hopefully serves as a useful resource in understanding the 45^th President’s impact on American Jewry and Israel.[2]

For now, let’s look at some of the key elements that best describe American Jewish voting behavior and that are likely to be key factors for this year’s election:

1. Follow the Money? Some analysts have suggested that Jews provide the Democratic Party and its candidates with one-half of all their financial resources, while offering the Republican Party about one-fourth of its campaign dollars.[3] Whether these numbers are accurate maybe less important than the economic reality of the significant degree of Jewish political support. Political giving is one of the core measures of how deeply an individual/group is connected with the American political system. No doubt, American Jews are intensively engaged with politics! So where in 2024 will we see these resources moving, and will we likely see the same levels of commitment as in the past?

2. Who’s Out and Who’s In: The fastest growing part of the electorate involve voters who are becoming “independents”. [4] Political parties, once a statement of family loyalty and tradition, are simply not attracting as many younger voters. While we do not have reliable data on Jewish voter registration, there is a belief that these numbers parallel the general pattern of increased independent voter registration.

3. On the Political Scale, where is Israel? Since the mid-1980’s Israel has not been a central factor for most Jewish voters. In 2024, we already note a higher degree of concern and attention to matters related to Israel security and US political and military support. While always a consideration, the case for Israel has clearly accelerated on the scale of political priorities for 2024.

5. Is the Supreme Court on the Ballot? While the question is a non-starter, for Jews the Court is a barometer of the cultural and social well-being of the nation. Issues such as abortion, immigration, and gun violence all register on the Jewish political scale. Jews often “vote” as if they were selecting judges for this Court!
6. Which Jewish Voters Matter? While Jews vote in exceedingly high numbers, somewhere between 72% to 85%! Jewish voters living in “purple states” where the 2024 contest for the control of the Office of the President, the Senate and the House will be determined, their votes may make a difference! Approximately 1.8 million Jewish adults, just under one-third of the total Jewish electorate, live in twenty-five congressional districts.[5] Of the top twenty-five districts by Jewish population, nearly half are in New York, with ten districts. The remaining districts with large Jewish populations are found in seven states, among them Florida, California, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Florida’s 21^st Congressional District has the greatest number of Jewish adults at 152,000. Identified below are some key states where the 2024 campaign may play out. With more than eight months out, many analysts believe that at this point Florida (3.1%), Texas (.6%), and Ohio (1.3%) are most likely situated in the Republican column for this year’s election (parathesis indicate percentage of Jewish voters), leaving six states that are seen to be in play: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina, collectively these states have 87 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. In several of these key states (Pennsylvania and Arizona and to a lesser degree Georgia), the “Jewish vote” can be particularly significant in determining the outcomes:    

                   Pennsylvania       2.3%  (percentage of Jewish residents)

                   Arizona.                1.5%

                   Georgia                 1.2%

                   Michigan               .09%

                   Wisconsin             .06%

                   North Carolina     .04%

6. Age as a Factor: Jews are among the oldest, white constituencies in the nation[6], and as a result, health and age-related policy issues are of particular significance to these voters. Jews are invested as well in such issues as abortion, immigration and education, so often polls indicate a particularly high response of Jewish voters to these policy issues.

7. Measuring Trump: How popular is Donald Trump among Jewish voters? In part, this varies as to which Jewish religious groupings, geographic/region areas, or political constituents one may be studying. Polling from the 2020 campaign gave us several different outcomes.[7]  We have some current data as well “measuring” the former President’s popularity with Jewish voters, as compared with Joe Biden.[8]  Based on past voting and current polling data, at least two-thirds of Jewish voters do not support the former President.

8. The Progressives and the Jewish Vote: What is the likely impact of the Democratic political left on mainstream Jewish voters? While we may not be able to fully assess the effect of the Squad and its allies on the Jewish political temperament, we know that about 8% of Jews define themselves as “Progressives”. Based on existing polling data an overwhelming number of Jewish Democrats oppose some or all the issues and positions that are embraced by this wing of the Party. We should remind ourselves that “Jewish Liberalism” is a moving target, meaning that many liberal Jews adopt and adjust their political inclinations based on a number of factors.[9]

9. The Hate Effect: How Antisemitism is Driving 2024 Jewish Voters: In a recent survey 93% of America’s Jews are seriously concerned about the increase in anti-Jewish hatred. How will this factor influence Jewish voters? We can surmise that the Jewish vote this year will consider this issue when making political choices.

10. Surprises Matter: There is of course no way to know what may happen between now and November 5^th.  The “unknowns” could fundamentally reshape this election. The emergence, for example, of a significant third-party candidate, court cases and their outcomes, and so much more can alter voting choices and patterns.

Closing:

There are so many variables to consider for an election. These ten elements are likely to be significant.  But all of this together creates the intensity, excitement and even uncertainty of an election.  With a little more than 250 days to go, what can we expect?  On this blog, we will be following the issues and trends that are likely to influence the “Jewish vote”.

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[1] https://blogs.timesofisrael.com/author/steven-windmueller/

[2] https://www.amazon.com/Impact-Presidency-Donald-American-Israel/dp/161249708X

[3] https://www.jpost.com/us-elections/us-jews-contribute-half-of-all-donations-to-the-democratic-party-468774#google_vignette

[4] https://www.axios.com/2023/04/17/poll-americans-independent-republican-democrat

[5] https://ajpp.brandeis.edu/documents/2020/nationalprofileofthejewishelectoratein2020.pdf

[6] https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2021/05/11/jewish-americans-in-2020/

[7] https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jewish-voting-record-in-u-s-presidential-elections

[8] https://www.jewishelectorateinstitute.org/november-2023-national-survey-of-jewish-voters/

[9] https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691005096/quest-for-inclusion