42 Years Later, Israel and Lebanon get a Do-Over

For Lebanon and Israel, time froze on September 14, 1982, the day the Lebanese president-elect and Phalangist military leader, Bashir Gemayel, was assassinated by Syrian agents. The killing of this Christian general sparked a wave of civil violence, culminating in the massacres of Palestinians at Sabra and Shatila by Phalange forces under the watch of the Israelis, who had invaded the prior June, ostensibly to stop rocket fire onto the Jewish communities of Galilee. (Sound familiar?)

Until the killing of Gemayel, everything had gone swimmingly for the Israelis. Sure, there were mass anti-Israel protests all over the world and antisemitism spiked (again, sound familiar?). But Israel opened itself up to some of the criticism by going beyond the initial war aims. Despite his claim of seeking merely a buffer from Palestinian rockets (the incursion was called “Operation Peace for Galilee”), up to the Litani River, General Ariel Sharon led Israeli troops up the coast all the way to Beirut and laid siege on the city. The young, charismatic Gemayel was then installed by Israel as Lebanese leader, creating the Middle East’s second non Muslim-run state and turning an enemy into an Israeli ally overnight.

Simple job. Piece of cake. Nation-Building 101.

Mission Accomplished, right?

This exercise in geopolitical engineering using blunt military force rather than diplomatic delicacy turned out to be a fatal error. The imposed solution had all the subtlety of Sharon himself, larger and louder than life, an oversized bull in a china shop. And it failed. And that failure shaped the region every bit as much as everything that happened after that: Sadat’s assassination, Rabin’s killing, the Oslo Accords, the Intifadas, October 7 and all the wars that have happened, including Israel’s nonstop conflict with Hezbollah itself. That single blast changed everything.

And so has this one.

At long last, 42 years and change following Gemayel’s the killing of Hassan Nasrallah has evened the score and allowed the Israelis and Lebanese people a chance for a fresh start.

Hezbollah has wielded effective control over Lebanon for decades, but now that control may be ending. That cheering heard in the streets of Syria Friday night was not over the deaths of Israelis, but a celebration the death perpetrated by the Israelis.

This weekend’s Beirut blast didn’t just even the score four decades after that other Beirut blast, it reset the board completely.

So now the question, especially for the Israelis but also for the US and Sunni states, is this: What are you going to do with this new chance? Are you going to go all blunt-force trauma like the hubristic Sharon and push the troops up to the Litani and beyond? Are you going to try once again to install the leader of your neighbor? Or is this now a time to negotiate from strength and seek a day-after solution that offers peace and security for all parties, and a return of the hostages?

Screen shot from Israel’s Channel 12 website

When Nasrallah’s demise was confirmed, the headlines on Israeli media contained the Hebrew term “Husal.”  The word means “eliminated,” derived from the Hebrew root H-S-L, “to finish.”