A ‘Black Swan’ in the AI Era: Will Society Turn Against Technology?

The concept of the “Black Swan,” as defined by philosopher Nassim Taleb, refers to unpredictable, rare events with massive impacts on human society. These scenarios are often perceived as unlikely until they occur, at which point they seem retrospectively foreseeable. In recent years, we have witnessed several “positive Black Swans” thanks to technological advancements and innovations. Examples include the widespread adoption of voice assistants (Alexa and Siri), the mainstream acceptance of electric vehicles (Tesla and its competitors), the digital payment revolution (Apple Pay, Google Pay, cryptocurrency), and most notably—the rise of generative artificial intelligence (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude), which has become an integral part of daily life for millions of users. In professional terms, these products represent disruptive innovations—technologies that challenge and redefine existing business models, often creating entirely new markets. In an era of unprecedented technological acceleration, it seems that the sky is not the limit for further disruptive innovations.

However, this rapid advancement raises an important question: Could this trajectory also spark an opposing reaction? One of the less-discussed possibilities is a global technological regression, where society gradually abandons advanced technologies and re-embraces traditional solutions. This does not imply a total rejection of technology, akin to the Amish way of life in the US and Canada, but rather the emergence of a broad anti-technology movement that could gain momentum and lead to significant economic, political, and social disruptions. What may begin as ideological fringe groups could eventually coalesce into an organized political movement, challenging the dominance of major corporations and governments that advocate for continuous technological progress. This movement could become a significant global force, fueling an ideological struggle between proponents of technological advancement and those opposing it—resembling the dynamics of the Cold War, where rival factions battled for global dominance. While this may seem improbable today, early indicators suggest that such a scenario could become a reality.

Why is This Scenario Rare Yet Possible?

In an era where artificial intelligence, automation, and digital surveillance are expanding rapidly, several factors could provoke a strong backlash against technology:

Economic Consequences and Job Losses Due to AI and Automation:

The growing threat of AI replacing human jobs is already materializing. From emerging startups to tech giants like Google, Amazon, and TikTok, many companies are integrating AI capabilities, often leading to workforce restructuring and mass layoffs. Over the past year, significant job cuts have occurred due to AI-driven automation replacing manual tasks. Even companies that were slow to embrace AI—such as Intel and Dell—were forced to downsize to remain competitive. This trend is likely to extend to other industries, including financial services, software development, law, and even medicine, where many roles could become obsolete. The resulting surge in unemployment, frustration, and social unrest could fuel the rise of anti-technology sentiments.

Stock Market Collapse Due to a Single Narrative:

The AI boom has created a singular investment narrative: the belief that tech giants’ stock prices will continue rising indefinitely. Investors have flocked to companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Google, convinced that the AI revolution is only beginning. However, a recent Black Swan event—DeepSeek—challenged this assumption. The Chinese startup introduced a highly advanced AI model with development costs significantly lower than those of Western tech giants. This revelation triggered sharp declines in tech stocks, with Nvidia—a symbol of AI sector growth—experiencing the largest single-day market capitalization loss of any US company.

If AI technologies encounter regulatory hurdles, ethical challenges, or technological failures, the resulting market crash could spark a broader economic crisis. This exposes a deeper risk: what happens when core market assumptions collapse? According to Kahneman and Tversky’s Prospect Theory, people are more sensitive to losses than to equivalent gains. If investors suffer severe losses, they may not only withdraw funds from tech stocks but also lose confidence in the AI sector altogether. In extreme cases, financial losses could lead to ideological radicalization, with some investors shifting from AI enthusiasts to supporters of movements advocating for technology restrictions and de-growth economics.

Events like DeepSeek’s market disruption do not just shake investor confidence—they could serve as catalysts for ideological escalation in the battle between technology proponents and skeptics.

Beyond economic and financial concerns, several other risks could drive anti-technology activism:

Concerns about surveillance and privacy violations are another critical factor. Governments, security agencies, and corporations are increasingly utilizing AI-driven monitoring systems to track citizens. Scandals involving data leaks and the political exploitation of big data pose a serious risk to fundamental rights.

Additionally, the rise in cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, such as power grids, healthcare systems, and financial institutions, highlights the vulnerabilities of a technology-dependent society.

Simultaneously, the overload of information and the spread of AI-driven disinformation—which is used for manipulation, psychological warfare, and influence campaigns—could further erode public trust in advanced technologies. For example, AI-generated fake news and deepfake videos have already played a role in election processes in various countries, increasing public demands for legislation to regulate advanced technologies. These risks could drive large segments of the population to seek a return to a “simpler” way of life and reject digital progress.

Consequences of a Global Anti-Technology Movement

The spread of an ideological anti-technology movement could trigger severe disruptions in the global economy and society. Tech giants may suffer significant losses due to declining demand, widespread protests, and stricter regulations on artificial intelligence. Certain nations and communities may declare themselves “No Technology Zones,” imposing restrictions on access to advanced technologies. Paradoxically, the movement could fuel a wave of cyberattacks from technology opponents targeting critical infrastructure such as data centers and cloud computing facilities to undermine the digital economy. A shift in economic trends could lead to a renewed emphasis on labor-intensive industries, destabilizing global trade and forcing adjustments to existing economic models. Ultimately, competing trends of technological acceleration versus deceleration may emerge, driven by government policies, investor sentiment, and shifting attitudes toward innovation and research funding.

Are We on the Verge of an Ideological Divide Over Technology?

At first glance, it seems inevitable that the world will continue embracing technology at an accelerating pace. However, a significant backlash remains a real possibility. If an anti-technology movement becomes a dominant political force, the world could face an ideological confrontation between those who see technology as the future and those seeking to curtail its influence. In such a scenario, governments, corporations, and civil society will need to find ways to balance technological advancement with social and economic stability.

Ultimately, if such an event unfolds, it may become the Black Swan that defines the coming years.