A muddy and messy affair

Democracy, particularly democratic elections, can be a muddy and messy affair. One would be hard-pressed to find a better example of that than Israel’s latest elections and the upcoming negotiations over a government.

Some might have the impression that the elections were a great victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because his Likud Party received 27 votes, the most of any party and five or six votes more than what Likud was polling. That would be a misimpression. That 27 vote total is down five from what Likud got in the last election four years ago.

And it appears that the additional votes over what the polls predicted came from the far right and religious parties, which generally won fewer seats than in previous elections and which are in his coalition anyway.

Netanyahu’s coalition won 56 seats, down eight from the 64 it received in the last elections in 2022. It is hard to see where he gets another five from in order to get to the 61 needed to form a government. But you can never sell Netanyahu short. He is master at the coalition-building game, and he has demonstrated that his overwhelming need to stay in power will lead him to do some outrageous things.

Voters representing 67 seats voted against Netanyahu and the current government–48 in “the opposition” and an unprecedented 19 in the Arab parties. Not a ringing endorsement of the government.

The main criterion for President Herzog in deciding who gets first shot at forming a government is not who received the most votes. Rather, he surveys all of the party leaders. He will designate whoever gets the most seats based on discussions with the leaders of the various parties, which is the best indicator of who has the best chance to form a government.

Several in the opposition pledged not to serve with parties that do not represent themselves as Zionist, while Israel Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, true to form, is more blunt and crude: he will not serve with Arab parties. They could probably somehow finagle serving with Ra’am, an Islamist Party whose leader, Monsour Abbas, has proven to be pragmatic and bold.

Abbas has accepted Israel as a Zionist state. And there is precedent: Ra’am served in the short-lived Bennett-Lapid government, the first time an Arab party formally joined a government since the 1950’s. That’s eight seats, which gets the opposition to 56.

Getting the other five votes from the Joint List, a combination of three Arab parties which won 11 seats, will be difficult. In addition to several opposition members resisting being in a government with parties that are anti-Zionist, the Arab parties themselves traditionally have rejected being in a Zionist government.

However, the Arab parties have said they would support the coalition from outside of the government. That is not a key to stability but it could work. Several of the Arab parties historically have not even been willing to indicate their preference for Prime Minister to the President. However, demonstrating just how much they want to see a change, they have indicated they will support Eisenkot.

Without even forming a government and with Netanyahu still as Prime Minister, the new Knesset can meet and change speakers and take significant other actions.

We could just have a stalemate, which means Netanyahu stays as caretaker Prime Minister and is constantly suspected of taking actions, including sending young people into battle, to help himself politically. That would mean another election, the results of which would probably not be much different than the results of the one we just had.

Lieberman, who opposes joining forces with Arab parties despite the fact he served with Ra’am in the Bennett-Lapid government, is urging a unity government made up of the parties in the middle of the political spectrum, leaving the extremes on both sides in the dust. President Herzog and others are also urging the parties to consider a unity government.

If Yashar’s Gadi Eisenkot or B’Yachad’s Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid were to form a government with Likud, particularly with Netanyahu still as leader and possibly the Prime Minister, it would be viewed as a major betrayal by many of their supporters.

Voter turnout overall was about 77%, the highest since 1999. The turnout in the Arab population was an extraordinary–about 85%, compared to 53% in 2022. The Arab population was highly motivated by their desire to be rid of Netanyahu and the extremist Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir.

Because of the very high Arab turnout, Netanyahu, Ben Gvir, and their supporters are now claiming massive fraud, funding from Qatar, and a stolen election. The Central Elections Committee stated that there is no evidence of irregularities on a significant level.

There is a great irony in Netanyahu complaining about alleged Qatari influence.  Several members of his key staff were doing PR work for Qatar while working in his office during the war with Hamas, a beneficiary of Qatari patronage.

The Prime Minister invited a foreign leader to interfere in Israel’s elections by transparently begging President Trump to endorse him. Now there are reports that President Trump is considering getting involved in the coalition negotiations.  There is little doubt that Netanyahu would welcome this further interference in Israel’s internal affairs so long as it benefits him.

The official election results must be published by November 4. Within seven days of publication, President Herzog must designate a Knesset member to try to form a government.

Whoever President Isaac Herzog selects has 28 days to attempt to form a government, with the possibility of a 14-day extension, for a maximum of 42 days. If the first designee is unsuccessful, the President selects another candidate who also has 28 days, but with no extension.

There is provision for a third attempt. If 61 Knesset members agree on someone, he or she has 14 days to form the government. If things were to get this far, it is highly likely Israel would be heading toward a new election.

One thing is clear: The next few weeks and months are going to be intense and rocky and, in all probability, muddy and messy. Democracy in action.