A new Dayenu

Our leader, fearless in his secret concrete shelter, gave us a “Dayenu” speech. We killed a bunch of the top Iranian leadership. Dayenu. And if that were not enough, we bombed the crap out of their missile launchers. Dayenu. And if that were not enough, we took out many of their weapons factories. Dayenu. And if that were not enough, we bombed their petrochemical facilities…

We are strong, we are strong, we are strong!

They are weak, they are weak, they are weak!

Trump’s press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, gave a similar speech, citing numbers of missions, numbers of bombs dropped, numbers of ships sunk, numbers of top people eliminated, obliterated, annihilated. Trump added that the US military had accomplished its aims.

The problem, however, is that the war had a lot of aims, but the US professed shifting goals that became ever vaguer and more conciliatory as the 39 days of trading in bombs and rockets progressed. By the end, the main American goal appeared to be reopening the Straits of Hormuz, a goal they could have achieved by not going to war in the first place. Israel had some goals too, but at present, they consist of continuing to bomb parts of Lebanon for as long as we can get away with it.

By all accounts, Iran has agreed in principle to reopen the Straits, but has not done so. By all accounts, they will now impose a punitive tax on certain ships passing through the Straits.

We did not topple the Iranian revolutionary (can they still call it revolutionary, nearly 50 years on?) regime, nor did we, let’s face it, create the conditions by which the Iranian people could overthrow their repressive government.

Nuclear enrichment? For Israel non-negotiable, but we are not sure whether Trump and his team are willing to negotiate the issue. Missile production? That will be off the table faster than a piece of herring in a house of cats.

If the US ends up lifting its sanctions and agrees to pay millions just to ship oil through the Straits, who can we say won the war?

The end result, as of now, is a stalemate. We have the ammo; they have control of the Straits. Our side can continue to impose sanctions; they control the price of global oil. We’ve taken out half their missile capability, which still leaves thousands of launch-ready rockets. We’ve taken out their submarines, but cannot touch their cyber abilities which, like the enriched uranium, remain a threat to our own wellbeing.

There is no question that Iran, already in deep financial trouble, has been weakened by this war, while the Americans only felt it for a few days at the gas pumps. But few are asking the question: If we can’t eliminate the regime, how weak do we want Iran to be?

I cannot help thinking of the parable of Germany after WWI – the one we were taught in high school. The moral of the story was that Germany, humiliated by the loss and in deep economic distress, was ripe for the next step, led by a bloodthirsty fascist leadership.

In Iran, where a well-oiled despotic bunch of religious extremists is already in charge, are we laying the groundwork for the next step, for the next war? Have we bought ourselves a few years of quiet, only to delay the inevitable next round of upward-spiraling conflict?

There are voices implying – or saying outright – that we might be in a worse position now than when we started the war. We will be leaving the Revolutionary Guards in power, the current Iranian flag proudly waving over Tehran. And they will be forcing the US into concessions it would not have made. If the US ends up lifting its sanctions and agrees to pay millions just to ship oil through the Straits, who can we say won the war?

And we should be asking ourselves, as well: How strong do we need Israel to be? Not even I believe that we can make real peace will every single Islamic state in our region. But a surprising number are willing, if we would only let them. Our uber-macho shows of strength have a steep price. I am talking about the physical and mental toll of unending war on the country, the uprooted people, reservists who have barely been home, businesses closed and jobs lost. We will be paying that price for years to come. I am talking about the fact that when our strength crosses the line into creating chaos and destabilization in our neighboring country, it does not win us any friends, nor create stability for ourselves. In other words, I would beg us to reconsider the notion that being the neighborhood strongman is always in our best interest.

We flout our strength, from the shadow of the real strongman – Trump. But Trump will love us only as long as it is convenient, as long as our moon nicely reflects the shine of his sun. That is another price we will pay, either when he loses interest in us and our petty problems and moves on to the next opportunity to grab at a Nobel prize or, failing that, after the next elections (here or there, take your pick).

To all of this, I say: Dayenu! We’ve had enough! Enough living in the shadow of the next war and the one after that. Enough waking in the middle of the night, because we dreamt we heard sirens. Enough dehumanizing those around us in a way that steals our own humanity. Enough turning a blind eye to the crimes committed by our leaders and by our own fanatics. Enough of the lies and dissembling. Enough of our own slide into despotism and theocracy.

Dayenu!