A Tale of Two Wars
Israel is fighting two wars at the same time. One has been off and on since 1948 with the Palestinian Arabs and their sometime supporters. The second war began last June, when Israel and the United States bombed Iran. Rightly or wrongly, Israel considers both wars as wars of survival, but that is where the similarity ends. The two wars have different origins and are likely to have different outcomes.
The Iran war has its origins in 1979 when the followers of the late Ayatollah Khomeini, overthrew the Shah and declared the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran with the purpose and aim of destroying the Jewish State of Israel (“The Little Satan”). The moniker of “The Great Satan” was bestowed upon the United States.
Iran made no secret of its intention to develop nuclear weapons to carry out its avowed purpose of destroying Israel and deterring the United States from preempting or retaliating. Every American president since George W. Bush has declared that the United States will not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.
Relying on diplomacy, President Obama’s administration along with four other countries, including Russia and China, signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Under which Iran agreed not to enrich uranium to weapon grade, to destroy its plutonium facility (that had nuclear weapon potential), and to allow inspections of its uranium enrichment facilities by the United Nation’s Internal Atomic Energy Agency (UNIAEA).
Once President Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA treaty in 2018, Iran renewed its uranium enrichment program leading the Trump administration to conclude that war was the only way to stop Iran’s nuclear ambitions. When an Israeli general was recently asked how the war was going, he responded “On a scale of 1 to 10, it is a 15, in part because of Iran’s defensive/retaliatory weaknesses and in part because of Iran’s mistake in deploying ballistic missiles and drones against neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf.” (The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar have borne the brunt of Iran’s attacks. Israel, with its advanced defense systems, has largely escaped damage. Turkey, a NATO member, has also been targeted.) Iran finds itself today largely isolated with little prospect of meaningful help.
The aim of the United States and Israel is to degrade the Iranian government to the point where opposition forces within Iran will replace the present Islamic regime. This is a possible outcome, but by no means assured. The next two weeks will tell.
The conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Arabs is not the same thing as the war with Iran. It is essentially a struggle between two ethnic groups occupying one land, each with historic claims to ownership. The only long-term solution is a political one, not a military one. It would be a tragedy for all concerned, including Israel, if a regime change in Iran emboldened Israel to annex the West Bank or otherwise restrict the political or economic rights of the Palestinian Arabs in the West Bank or in Israel proper.
A political solution with an independent Palestinian entity in most of the West Bank, a presence in Jerusalem, demilitarized and treaty bound to co-exist in peace with Israel, with further guarantees by key regional players as well as by the UN security council is an outcome that both sides would be able to live with. A political solution is not risk free for Israel, but the absence of a political solution poses a far greater long-term risk.
